Atlanta Falcons 2024 Season Wins Prediction: Will They Hit the Over?

Atlanta Falcons Season Wins Predictions

Bovada Betting Line: Over 7.5 Wins (-150), Under 7.5 Wins (+115)

Atlanta Falcons Season Wins Over/Under Pick

Analysis

This line is favored toward the over, with the Falcons ending up at least 8-9 fetching -150, with a record of 7-10 or worse getting a slight underdog quote of +110. The Atlanta Falcons have a lot of new pieces in place, making them one of the more difficult teams to pinpoint. Some moves were made for the positive across many areas and being that they are coming off two straight 7-10 seasons, one can see why a slight progression is favored to occur.

Often-maligned head coach Arthur Smith was let go, with veteran coach Raheem Morris being brought in to get things pointed in the right direction. He had previously served as interim head coach for this team in 2020 and is known as a top defensive man in the league. And while that part of the team really fell apart coming down the stretch, 2023 showed a lot of overall promise on that side of the ball.

They already had some nice pieces on offense, with Drake London a rising young receiver and RB Bijan Robinson showing some promise in his rookie season. And maybe it’s not too late for TE Kyle Pitts to develop into the player some envisioned. But the boost to their QB-room was vast with the addition of Kirk Cousins and first-round pick Michael Penix, Jr. Add in some other interesting pieces, along with the promise that more can be brought out of what has been a QB-starved cast of contributors, and maybe this offense can start to show its teeth in 2024.

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Some, however, might find the prognosis not to be so positive. Since the Falcons’ little mini-run 7-8 years ago when they blew the Super Bowl, they’ve never touched the win-total the oddsmakers are saying is -150 to happen this season. You have a big name at QB in Cousins, but still a guy who doesn’t always deliver big seasons even with ample artillery that has been at his disposal. Penix. Jr. is an X-factor, commandeering the Huskies to soaring offensive heights last season. But will he even be out there this season? And then you take the rest of their offense, and while there are some pieces, there aren’t any serious upgrades outside of the QB position.

They added WR Darnell Mooney, who can stretch the field, but they’re still banking a lot on an offense that has the same faces, but now with a new face at QB. And that face will be a 36-year old coming of a torn Achilles with one career playoff win to his name. However, with the trade for LB Matthew Judon during camp, the Falcons secured a valuable defensive weapon that adds another piece to a defense that is growing in power. That front-seven on defense could really be on its way up.

This is a numbers game, meaning we need to find how many wins they can extract out of this schedule. The NFC South isn’t the worst division if you’re looking for wins, with the Saints and Buccaneers coming off 9-win seasons and the Panthers being 2-15 last year. Stowing away 3-4 wins from division-play seems reasonable enough. Playing all the teams in the NFC East has its ups and downs, as does a tour through the teams of the AFC West. Throw in games against the Steelers, Seahawks, and Vikings, and we see it’s really a mixed bag schedule-wise. If anything, their schedule has this little quirk where their more-difficult games outside of their division are at home, while the easier ones are on the road, making games you would be inclined to count as wins more-difficult to rely upon toward their total.

So sure, they could have used another viable aerial weapon to go along with London and Robinson. The prospect for Morris in the head coaching role is no surefire proposition. And you’re asking this team to do something they haven’t done in years if you fancy the “over” in this spot. But I think the trajectory of their defense with the enhanced depth they got in the draft and with the addition of Judon should have them a solid top-ten “D” this season. And there is no question that when watching them the last few years, the QB position was a major obstacle that now shouldn’t exist or at least not be such a death knell.

After all, you’re not asking the Falcons to be a contender, a playoff team, or even a .500 team. The “over” needs just an 8-9 season to be a winning wager. I think Cousins steps into a good situation with a line that might be one of the better ones in the conference. They have some fresh faces in the offensive coaching slots, which should offer a new approach to what has been a pedestrian offense strapped with bad quarterback play. Cousins should be in a decent position to thrive in his new stomping grounds. He will have a system with which he is familiar.

It’s helpful to be in the NFC South, where the Falcons really should contend to win the division. And even in that division where we’ve seen some strange things happen, a team you think should win a division should also be good for eight wins. When looking at the range of outcomes for the Falcons in 2024, there seems to be abundantly more things that need to go wrong than right for them not to get to 9 wins. I’m taking the “over.”

Betting Pick:

I’m betting on the Atlanta Falcons to go over 7.5 wins at -150 betting odds.