Army vs. Navy Point Spread Prediction for Week 16 Matchup

Navy Midshipmen (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) vs. Army Black Knights (11-1 SU, 7-4 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 16
Date/Time: Saturday, December 14, 2024 at 3PM EST
Where: Northwest Stadium, Landover, Maryland
TV: CBS

The Navy Midshipmen and the Army Black Knights will meet in Landover on Saturday in this season’s installment of the Army/Navy game. One of the most-enduring rivalries in American sports, these teams have met annually for over 130 years. This season’s version is one of the best in years, with both teams coming off good seasons. We even have a ranked team in the mix this season, with Army coming off a big 11-1 season where they were unbeaten in AAC. Navy wasn’t too shabby themselves, going 8-3. Both teams were solid at the betting windows this season at 7-4. On Friday, Army thumped Tulane, 35-14, in the conference championship, entering this with some nice momentum after a late-season loss to Notre Dame. Navy, meanwhile, comes into this off a break, with a 34-20 win at East Carolina their last appearance on the 29th. Who should we get behind in this one?

Tough Spot for Navy

Army has been really tough, especially in conference, whereas Navy has also been good, but struggled in enough spots to make it stand out some. Navy losing to teams like Rice, 24-10, and Tulane, 35-0, are damning results. Army was able to smoke Tulane last week, while also beating up on Rice, 37-14. While this type of common-opponent arithmetic often falls short as an evaluation for teams, I think it does speak to a disparity in overall quality this season between the 11-1 Black Knights and Navy.

It also seems that a lot of the issues for Navy were back-loaded this season, as they closed out the year with three losses in their last five games. With those three losses being by a combined 86 points, there was some rough stuff happening to close the season after their 6-0 start. Losing QB Blake Horvath really cost them a lot on offense, with him being listed as questionable for this after being out since mid-November when they got lambasted by Tulane, with Horvath leaving that game early. Even if he gets back in action, having these issues coincide with the end of the season has robbed Navy of their upside. While no passing dynamo, Horvath was able to lend some variety to the Navy offense, with them reverting more to their vanilla run-heavy approach in his absence.

Food for Thought

As we see things starting to unravel a bit on paper for the Midshipmen, it’s important to remind ourselves of the ramifications of these kinds of rivalry games. You can see all kinds of things shake out funny, not the least of which is teams reversing form. Either side can come into this spot historically in reeling form, only for things to come together in light of what this game represents for both sides. In other words, those banking on Army only from a standpoint of Navy entering this spot crestfallen might find that they needed more upon which to base a pick.

Hard to Deny Army

There is no question that Army lucked out with their schedule running out in a way where not many major roadblocks stood in their way. A look at who they beat reveals a long run of 3-win teams. North Texas and UTSA are .500 teams and ECU is 7-5 so not everyone was a total pushover. It’s still pretty thin in the quality of opponent category and the one good team they played beat them by five touchdowns. Now they face an 8-3 Navy squad and even with the Midshipmen finishing poorly, they’re still one of the tougher opponents Army has faced this season. In fact, other than Notre Dame, they are the toughest. Let’s also not forget that while we dwell on how Navy finished the season, Army wasn’t exactly on fire, covering only once in their final five games after starting off 6-0 ATS.

Still, with a halfway-manageable spread in this game, the Black Knights’ ability to steer wins into their column counts for something. They won every game they were supposed to win, winning once as underdogs and once underachieving against Notre Dame as underdogs. QB Bryson Daily is a real weapon, not terrible aerially, but subdued, as is Army’s wont. He still has 8 TDs through the air, working well with receiver Casey Reynolds and RB Noah Short. But on the ground is where he’s a terror, with almost 1500 yards and an immense 29 touchdowns. Throw in ten more from 1000-yard rusher Kanye Udoh, along with the work of Short and the rest of the backfield cast, and it’s a lot of rushing juice to wield on a Navy defense that hasn’t exactly been thriving in this area heading down the stretch of the season. If Navy is unable to repel this rushing attack to some extent this week, it’s going to put a lot of pressure on their own offense, which might not be able to bridge that gap with the form they’ve been showing lately.

Lay the Number on the Favorite

Again, there is that nagging feeling that certain things don’t matter in a rivalry game like this. Also, Army certainly had a smooth path to this spot. I just see them as being the more-reliable football product by a decent margin heading into these season-ending games. I think they’ll be up for this even with a nice bowl-spot looming, with their run-game coming to the surface and taking it to a Navy defense that has been waning of late. I’ll take the Black Knights.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Army Black Knights minus 7 points.

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