Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers Week 11 Pick

Arizona Cardinals (3-6-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS)
NFL Week 11
Date/Time: Sunday, November 17, 2019 at 4:05PM EST
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
TV: Fox

Point Spread: ARI +11.5/SF -11.5 (Pinnacle)
Over/Under Total: 46

The Arizona Cardinals come to the Bay Area on Sunday for a Week 11 NFC West battle with the San Francisco 49ers. It might be a tough spot for the Niners, coming off the short week after a taxing 27-24 overtime loss the Seahawks. It was a real war with all of the OT period being used, and it might be a tough time to be coming off the short week. Working in the Niners’ favor, however, is that they are nice and dug in at home, with this being their second of three straight home games. And with the Cardinals coming into town, they are facing a team that has lost their last three games that they already beat a few weeks ago. Who can get it done at Levi’s Stadium this week?

What Part 1 Reveals

This is their second game of the season, and with the first one being just a two weeks ago on Thursday Night Football, we do have some information upon which to go on. In Glendale, the Cardinals hung in there, losing a narrow 28-25 game where they covered the spread with room to spare. The score was perhaps a bit closer than it was, with San Fran adding a late TD to make it look better. But with five minutes left, the Cardinals were within three and still in the game.

San Francisco rode the arm of Jimmy Garoppolo a few weeks back, who threw four TD passes and had 317 yards. He connected well with Emmanuel Sanders and George Kittle. Matt Breida had a good game on the ground. On defense, they rushed the passer well and put some pressure on Kyler Murray, but the Arizona offense did some good things too. Murray was 17-24 through the air and made a massive play with Andy Isabella, who has made splash plays two weeks in a row. And new Cardinal Kenyan Drake exploded in his Arizona debut against the Niners, with 110 yards on the ground and another 52 aerially. Now granted, this one is in SF, but Arizona showed they can scrap with the Niners and maybe some conditions line up here for another competitive affair.

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San Fran in No Mood for Games

It may have been better for the Cardinals if the 49ers just went ahead and beat Seattle on MNF. Coming off a loss, the last thing San Fran wants to do is drop consecutive home games to divisional foes. This is a critical point in the season, heightened by the loss to Seattle. On the one hand, it’s a game they could have and maybe should have won. It’s hard to say much bad about a team that is 8-1. At the same time, you could see the loss irritated the Niners, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect them to be a little more on-point this week than they would otherwise be.

Avenues to Success for Arizona

They have to look no further than a few weeks ago. The Cardinals know they can hang with the 49ers. They followed up that field goal loss with another one on Sunday to Tampa, getting a second game on the road in a row this week before getting a bye next week. They’d like to go into the off-week with a positive development after a season with some early promise has gotten a bit sideways. Be that as it may, there are still signs of progress in Kliff Kingsbury’s first season at the helm. Most of their games have been very close, and while they’ve shown some late-game grit to get some wins, they’ve also faltered with wins on the line. As is the case with any team looking to make headway, there have been ups and downs.

It still seemed like the Cardinals matched up pretty well against the 49ers the first time around. Their shoddy defense, primarily a dicey secondary, was lit up by the Frisco aerial attack, but the 49ers struggled in maintaining any real separation from Arizona. It also helps that the two top guys who beat up on the Cardinals a few weeks ago are now banged-up, with George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders listed as questionable. Breida is listed as questionable with a gimpy ankle. It might not be quite the same Niners’ offense they saw 17 days ago. We saw Chandler Jones getting to Jimmy Garoppolo last game, and maybe they can cause some more menace this week.

The Cardinals saw some things work against the SF defense in game one. And in three of their last four road games this season, they have scored at least 26 points. With David Johnson and Drake, they can make some things happen against this “D,” both on the ground and with short passes. Whereas the SF offense is worse-off this time around, Arizona’s might be better, with a healthier Christian Kirk, along with Kyler Murray becoming increasingly comfortable in this offense with his various weapons, which is growing in power every week, even if the winning results aren’t there necessarily.

Let’s Roll With the Road Dogs

This is a dangerous spot for the Cardinals coming into San Fran to face an irritated 49ers’ bunch that will have more fire than they had two weeks ago. But some injuries, the short week, and how well Arizona matches up with the division leader gives this game the feel of being far from a slam-dunk for the favorite. I see the Cardinals hanging in there, with maybe a few big plays and a defensive or special teams TD keeping them within the spread. I’ll take Arizona.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Arizona Cardinals plus 11.5 points.