Arizona Cardinals vs. Chicago Bears Analysis & Prediction

Arizona Cardinals (3-11 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) vs. Chicago Bears (5-9 SU, 6-6-2 ATS)

The Arizona Cardinals come to Soldier Field for a week 16 NFC showdown with the Chicago Bears on Sunday. Neither team has a playoff spot to worry about, both having been eliminated. But they also have held their own in an against-the-spread sense, showing they’re still out there working on things and trying to stay upbeat, coming in above .500 ATS combined, despite these teams being 8-20 heading into this. The Bears had been playing better, winning three of four before coming up a bit short to the Browns on Sunday, 20-17. The Cardinals, meanwhile, lost to division nemesis San Francisco, 45-29, last week. Who should we get behind on Sunday?

State of Each Team Coming into Sunday

Not to paint the Cardinals in a bad light, as they beat Pittsburgh the week before running into the Niners’ buzzsaw last week, but Chicago appears to be in slightly better form. After a prolonged losing streak that stretched into week four of this season, they’ve been a .500 team. They’ve also dealt with injuries, and you’re starting to see things turn a bit for the Bears. Their defense has played better lately, giving up just 43 combined points in their last three games. QB Justin Fields is healthier, and you’re seeing his dual-threat appeal while he works well with pass-catchers DJ Moore and Cole Kmet. Beating a pair of teams playing pretty well in the Vikings and the Lions and nearly beating the Browns last week attests to how far they’ve come.

But we see that betting against the Cardinals this season every week would have been a losing proposition. The presence of Kyler Murray behind center isn’t earth-shattering, though he is capable of a good game, and it gives them solid potential on a given week. He has ample weapons, with James Conner in the backfield, a rising commodity at tight end in Trey McBride, and a gaggle of good receivers. But alas, this defense can be exploited to a large degree, and Justin Fields and Company will be looking to pounce this week in what seems a favorable spot for the Chicago offense.

Good Spot for the Bears?

Chicago has thrived at a difficult point in their season, faced with five road games in the last seven weeks, with a lot of those being pretty difficult spots. Now, back at home, I’d look for them to benefit from being here during the holidays. We see what’s happening to opposing offenses lately when they come to Soldier Field, with the Raiders putting up 12 points, while the Panthers and Lions each managed only 13 points in the Windy City. Now you’re asking a hit-and-miss Arizona offense to come in and have a good day? It might be asking a tad too much.

This isn’t to imply that the Bears can’t be had. This recent surge they’re on might not have much bearing in a higher context, like going against a good team that still has work to do. But when you get two bad teams, the subtle shifts we’ve seen in the overall spirit of this Chicago team can really start to register. And the main way I see that resonating this week is with their defense. They’ve become a lot stouter, and even if there are areas where they suffer, they play with a lot of energy at home, and if Murray is making mistakes, a capitalizing Chicago “D” can take advantage.

What to Expect

The Bears have been playing better defense, and since getting Montez Sweat along that line, it’s been paying dividends. That makes this road-spot that much more difficult for the Cardinals and the prospects of their offense. Still, for a team that hasn’t bagged many wins, their offense is one with a certain number of options. Marquise Brown being banged up doesn’t help, but with Conner and Murray both springing loose runs, with a good tight end and several dangerous receivers, their routes to the end zone are numerous. Sure, we’ve seen the Bears “D” step up in the second half of the season, but it’s still not that ultra-bankable defense you can count on to pound opponents week after week. It’s not altogether difficult to picture Arizona giving Chicago issues if their offense shows up on Sunday.

It’s just when looking at these two teams and trying to determine who is a better candidate to finish strongly and set themselves up as a team to watch next season, the Bears stand out more than the Cardinals. With bad teams, one has to account for the possibility of bottoming out, too, something that’s easier to picture happening to the Cardinals at Soldier Field. I don’t see Chicago hitting a wall suddenly with the Cardinals in town after going on this latest mini-run. To go from laughingstock status to a level of semi-respectability in the middle of a season is actually a difficult thing to do, and I’m not sure Arizona is capable of separating Chicago from that momentum this week.

Lay the Number on the Home Favorite

Again, Chicago is hardly iron-clad, and if they fall flat on a given week, it just isn’t shocking at all, even at home against a team where the positive developments have been few. Murray and Conner could run against this bunch, but I think that also goes for Fields and his backfield to an even larger degree. I also see Fields airing it out a little more in this matchup, as the Bears get the win and cover this week at home. I’ll take the Bears.

Loot’s’ Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Chicago Bears minus 4 points.