AFC Wild Card: Dolphins vs. Chiefs Picks & Betting Analysis

The Miami Dolphins come into Arrowhead for an AFC Wild Card Playoff showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday. Miami came up short to Buffalo, 21-14, on Sunday Night Football, hence landing in this road Wild Card spot in Arrowhead against the perennial AFC West champion Chiefs. On Sunday, the Chiefs rested their starters, still coming from behind late to nip the Chargers, 13-12, for their 11th win. Who will move on to the divisional round, and who will be sent packing? Let’s break it down!

Where Each Team Stands

While things can reset in the postseason, we see two teams who are not exactly in peak form. Since a 6-1 start, we see the Chiefs going 5-5 in their last ten games of the season, infrequently showing the same offensive pop they once had. They did win their last two, are defending Super Bowl Champions, and have shown more teeth on defense this season, but they’re failing to elicit the same enthusiasm with there not being a ton of people fancying the Chiefs to repeat.

The Dolphins have an even more negative inertia heading into this postseason, losing their last two and not seeing the first half of the season go as well as the first. There have been times where their defense has seemed imminently more-exploitable. On offense, a rash of injuries has rendered them a diminished force from a team that, at times this season, looked to be flashing some of the best offense in the conference. You take a team like that and have injuries claim some of their best defensive players like Bradley Chubb, have Tyreek Hill banged up for much of the last month, and see key guys like RB Raheem Mostert (questionable) and WR Jaylen Waddle (questionable) miss time, among others, it can really put a dent in what seemed to be a good thing.

Does Kansas City Still Have the Juice?

On one hand, you don’t want a lack of thriving star-power on the Chiefs’ offense leading you to underestimate them. They were dealing with some of this even when winning it all last season. It is true that once you get past Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Isiah Pacheco, it’s pretty slim pickings. And getting a good day out of Kelce, Rice, or Pacheco has hardly been a surefire proposition, with no one on this offense going over 1000 yards this season. Still, it’s a pretty formidable core to pit against a Miami “D” that hasn’t been thriving lately. With all the postseason experience on that Kansas City sideline, with them knowing how to navigate the harsh and cold postseason January waters in Arrowhead, I wouldn’t get too hypnotized by things like Kelce appearing to look more his age lately, and making an allowance for them maybe hitting another gear at this time of the season.

It has not been often as of late where we see the Miami offense dominating with its multi-pronged offensive attack where both Mostert and exciting rookie back Devon Achane are both getting fed, with big plays from Waddle and Hill, who is back where he first made his bones in KC. Their biggest point allowance this season was 27 points on the road in Lambeau. Only twice has an opponent surpassed 21 points on this KC defense this season. And we’ll see how well this Miami offensive line and Tua Tagovailoa hold up in a difficult road spot in freezing temperatures against a pass-rush that can really make a difference. In other words, maybe the Chiefs this season didn’t knock anyone’s socks off, but there’s a reason they’re hosting a playoff game, are defending champs, and are the most-steady NFL postseason factor of the last half-decade.

What Miami Needs

I think a position on Miami would need to be accompanied by some corresponding positive news on the personnel front. Hill can go into Arrowhead and help open up that defense a little bit, but you’d like to see the more-workhorse back in Mostert in there along with a receiver who can do damage if things loosen up in Waddle. Having Hill and a dynamic multi-dimensional back in Achane, along with their other pieces, could conceivably be enough. But this is a top-heavy offense with four real difference-makers at Tua’s disposal. The two guys we think will be OK in Achane and Hill don’t even seem 100%, and if they’re without the other two, it’s a big problem against this defense in this spot.

But maybe Miami can take a page from Kansas City’s book and find other things to help them get over the hump in the absence of the dynamic bankable offense they had earlier in the season. They still have guys who can get after the quarterback, even without Chubb, along with a secondary who can make big plays. It’s not beyond anything Mahomes has experienced, but maybe the lack of offensive pop the Chiefs have shown is a real source of hope for Miami backers this week.

Lay the Number on the Home Favorite

The spread of 3.5 as of press time is a bit steep for the Chiefs, admittedly. Gone are the days when you could just pay passing interest on spread value with the Chiefs and defer to their offense, championship pedigree, and postseason form. This offense isn’t going to be getting a lot of separation in the playoffs this season. I just have this sneaking sense that things are going to click into place for the Chiefs against a Dolphins team that, unfortunately, couldn’t quite make it this deep fully intact. I’m going with Kansas City in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Kansas City Chiefs minus 3.5 points. Question: When you bet on games, are you laying -110 odds? Sadly, 99% of our readers will answer YES. Did you know that you could be laying -105 instead? And the book is better too! Stop overpaying for odds TODAY! Make the switch to BetAnySports Sportsbook and start betting for cheaper! You’ll be so glad you did!