AFC East Pick: Jets vs. Dolphins Betting Predictions

The New York Jets make the trip down south to Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins in this week 15 AFC East showdown. The Jets served some notice last week that they might not be the easy late-season pickings some suspected with a 30-6 wipeout of the Texans. They look to keep it going this week against a familiar divisional rival in the Dolphins, coming off a MNF loss to the Titans in a bit of a stunner at home, 28-27. Looking to not fall into a late-season slump, the ‘Fins will be looking to atone this week. Who should we get behind in this divisional battle?

A Look Back at Week 12 and Where the Jets Stand Now

A few weeks ago in East Rutherford, the Dolphins dispatched of the Jets with relative ease in a 34-13 win. Tim Boyle started at QB for the Jets that day. This week, it will be Zach Wilson, who really looked as good as he ever had last week in a 300-yard showing against Houston. We saw him hitting top receiver Garrett Wilson with regularity, also connecting with RB Breece Hill, who had a nice game. On one hand, this has been a lost season. But it says a lot that a team that didn’t have the season it envisioned is still in there fighting, with a QB in Wilson vying hard to save his career after being in and out of action during his entire Jets’ tenure.

If the Jets offense can just manage to be pretty good, it will really help a Jets’ defense that has held firm despite the overall lack of support. They have a good pass defense that gave Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa one of his toughest games of the season last week, giving up just 243 yards, while getting two picks. It doesn’t really bode well that despite that, they still lost by three touchdowns, but maybe things can look a little better this week with Wilson in there riding some positive momentum from last week.

Still Hard to Get Behind the Jets

One solid offensive performance against a flummoxed Houston team in bad conditions doesn’t signal a Jets’ revival. It’s nice to see Wilson playing well and bringing talent to bear in the form of Garrett Wilson and Hall. But any glimpses of good play from Wilson that led you to be optimistic the following week have mostly been met with disappointment in his brief career. He has never been able to string anything together that has been substantial, just the occasional flash that comes and goes. And while we see a Jets’ defense holding up respectably amidst a hail of hardship, they’ve benefitted from being in some decent spots, either against weaker offenses or ones who were dealing with issues at the time they faced the Jets. Going on the road and facing a Miami offense as the ‘Fins try to get back on the right track after that MNF loss might provide a different look. And it’s not like we haven’t already seen that this season.

Still, if willing to base a read on a team from a one-week window, last week provides some hope for the Jets in this matchup. We see a Miami offense that flourishes some weeks and is relatively subdued in others. Against this Jets’ defense isn’t typically when you’d expect opposing offenses to get things back on the right track. But after watching Will Levis and the Tennessee offense play well against this Miami defense, maybe the Jets can enter this spot with some realistic hope on both sides of the ball this week.

Tough Spot for the Jets?

We will need to monitor the injuries heading into this. If, come Sunday, the injury quotient of the equation isn’t panning out for Miami, it enhances this spot for the Jets. Miami has Tyreek Hill banged up with a gimpy ankle, though you’d imagine he would play this Sunday. But a large bulk of the Miami O-line is dealing with injury setbacks, and it was clear last week that this was costing them a lot on offense. If these injuries persist to game-time, it really casts a shadow over a Miami team that has to cover a pretty big number on Sunday.

If, however, Miami is able to get these injury issues under control by game-time, this could shape up to be a tough game for the Jets. In fact, it’s likely they would have just preferred to see the Dolphins go ahead and beat the Titans on MNF, being that they’re likely to be a bit more alert after taking that unexpected loss. Granted, if the Dolphins are dealing with some real injury concerns that compromise their whole offense, that’s going to be a factor. But if some of those guys from the front file back into rotation, combined with their urgency to avoid a late-season slide, backing the Jets isn’t all that easy.

Lay the Points on the Home Favorite

While not wanting to be guilty of being slow to acknowledge a dip with the Dolphins or a surge with the Jets, I think this divisional matchup could signal more of a return to the norm for both teams. Any offensive optimism one has felt after seeing Zach Wilson play better is not something that has been typically rewarded. I see the Jets giving Miami some trouble with their defense, with enough big plays from the Dolphins to create some second-half separation for the win and cover this week. I’ll take Miami in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Miami Dolphins minus 8.5 points.