AFC Championship Pick – Chiefs vs. Ravens prediction ATS

Kansas City Chiefs (13-6 SU, 11-7-1 ATS) vs. Baltimore Ravens (14-4 SU, 12-6 ATS)
AFC Championship Playoff Betting Preview

Date/Time: Sunday January 28th, 2024. 3:00PM (EST)

Where: M&T Bank Stadium Baltimore, MD.

TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: KC +3.5/BAL -3.5
Moneyline: KC +175/BAL -200
Total: 44.5

One final weekend remains to decide the participants for Super Bowl LVIII which will take place on February 11th, 2024 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. The opening match-up this Sunday will feature an AFC Championship showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens who will meet at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. For the reigning Super Bowl Champions led by QB Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs will be making their 4th AFC Championship Game appearance in the last five years and are coming off an impressive road victory against the Buffalo Bill. The Chiefs and their modern dynasty has won three of the last four AFC title games but they will be 3.5 point underdogs for this week’s showdown against the Ravens.

In reality, Baltimore has appeared to be the best team in the NFL throughout the entire season. After a 3-2 SU start to the year, the Ravens won 11 of their last 12 games before resting all of their starters in a regular season finale loss to the Steelers. Last week, the Ravens received a tough test in an emerging Houston Texans’ opponent. Despite a tied score at halftime and a somewhat lackluster performance, the Ravens defense held the red-hot Houston offense scoreless in the 2nd half to cruise to a 34-10 victory. Despite a tremendous season by QB Lamar Jackson, I would argue that the Ravens defense is playing at an elite level and have Head Coach John Harbaugh poised for another championship run. However, the Ravens defense will get their biggest test of the season when they host the defending champions this Sunday.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Analysis

Despite having uncharacteristic struggles on the offensive side of the football throughout several points of the season, the Chiefs compiled a masterful performance last week against the Buffalo Bills. TE Travis Kelce had one of his best games in recent memory catching five passes for 75 yards with two touchdowns. RB Isaiah Pacheco looked very strong on the ground with 15 carries for 95 yards with a touchdown. Not to mention, QB Patrick Mahomes continued to show his skills by hitting 17 of 23 passing for 215 yards and two touchdowns in tough conditions. In many ways, it was the all-around type of performance we have come to expect from Andy Reid’s offenses.

With that being said, I think the competition will get much tougher this week against a Ravens defense that is playing extremely well. The Ravens defense has featured outstanding coverage with its secondary and disrupting pass-rush led by DT Justin Madubuike. With a healthy mixture of coverage and blitz schemes, Defensive Coordinator Mike Macdonald can make it tough on the Chiefs offense, specifically by taking away the middle of the field. Either way, this Chief’s offense vs. Ravens defense match-up will be a classic showdown between two of the best units in the league on both sides of the football.

On the opposite side of the football, the Ravens heavy rushing attack led by QB Lamar Jackson will likely remain problematic for a Chiefs defense that struggled to stop the run last week against Buffalo. In many ways, I thought the Bills abandoned the run-game too often last week which led to mistakes and missed opportunities. The Ravens will be less likely to abandon the run this week as they have a lot of faith in the play of their defense. If Baltimore gets the ground game going, it could be a long afternoon for the Chiefs. However if Kansas City plays well upfront and forces Jackson into more pure passing situations, this match-up could be relatively even.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Trends

• The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in the last five games.
• The Chiefs have hit the “under” in four of the last five games.
• The Chiefs are 11-2 SU in the last 13 games on the road.
• The Chiefs are 4-2 ATS in the last six games against Baltimore.
• The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in the last five games.
• The Ravens are 7-1 SU in the last eight games.
• The Ravens have hit the “over” in four of the last five games against Kansas City.
• The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games against AFC opponents.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Prediction

I’m a big believer in the Ravens’ defense and I think their ability to cover all areas of the field will be the difference this week. Despite Kelce’s 2 TDs last week, he has still lost a step and Kansas City is struggling over the middle of the field. I expect Baltimore’s defense to exacerbate those issues and to be the story of the game. In the end, I got the Ravens winning this one!

Jay’s Pick: Take Baltimore -3.5