49ers vs. Vikings Prediction: Can San Francisco Cover on the Road?
San Francisco 49ers (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) at Minnesota Vikings (1-0, 1-0), 9/15/24
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Sept. 15
Where: US Bank Stadium
TV: CBS
Point spread: SF -6/Min +6
Money line: Niners -270/Minn +220
Over/under: 45.5
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Two teams coming off impressive Week 1 performances meet when the 49ers visit the Vikings on Sunday afternoon.
San Francisco just got an excellent performance from a little-known backup running back in place of the injured Christian McCaffrey. In contrast, Minnesota got a surprisingly nice performance from a journeyman quarterback.
Who’s more likely to pull off an encore this week?
NFL Betting Line
The Week 2 NFL betting market opened San Francisco at -5.5 over Minnesota, with an O/U of right around 45.5. Early betting action edged the 49ers to -6.
49ers Betting Preview
San Francisco is 1-0 on the season after beating the Jets in Santa Clara Monday night 32-19. The 49ers, favored by 3.5 points, trailed 7-3 after one quarter but scored the next 23 points to take control on their way toward victory and the cover.
The Niners played Monday night without RB McCaffrey as he nurses a sore Achilles. But replacement Jordan Mason, fresh legs with just 83 NFL carries coming into the game, ran hard 28 times for 147 yards and a touchdown.
San Francisco out-gained the Jets 401-266 and dominated time of possession by a 39:21 split.
As of early this week, McCaffrey was listed as questionable for Sunday, but our guess is he watches from the sidelines as Mason gets another shot.
The 49ers went off this season playing against a wins O/U of 11.5, which was tied for the highest on the board with Baltimore and Kansas City. And they played like the defending NFC champions Monday night.
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Vikings Betting Preview
Meanwhile, Minnesota is also 1-0 after disposing of the hapless Giants last Sunday 28-6. The Vikes, favored at -1 on the road, spotted New York an early field goal but led 14-3 at the half. Minnesota then basically put the game away with a score early in the third quarter and eased home from there.
The Vikings out-gained the Giants 312-240, and almost half the yardage the Minnesota defense gave up came in garbage time.
New Vikes QB Sam Darnold, now playing for his fourth team in seven NFL seasons, started 12/12 passing last Sunday and finished an efficient 19/24 for 208 yards and two TDs, with one pick.
Last year, Darnold played in 10 games for the 49ers.
Minnesota played 7-10 last season, lost their veteran starting quarterback to free agency, and went off this season playing against a wins O/U of 6.5. And while all went very well last Sunday, let’s face it: They played the Giants.
49ers-Vikings Recent History
San Francisco beat Minnesota in 2020 and 2021 but most recently, last season, the Vikings upset the Niners also in Minneapolis 22-17.
The 49ers went into that game 5-1 and favored by 6.5 points but a 2-4 Minnesota team out-played San Francisco that day. The Vikings limited McCaffrey to 96 yards on 18 touches mainly by possessing the ball for almost 35 minutes.
Also, that game played under a total of 44.
NFL Betting Trends
- Darnold is 22-35 as an NFL starter.
- San Francisco QB Brock Purdy is 18-4 as an NFL starter.
- San Francisco recorded a 7-2 SU mark and was 6-3 ATS on the road last season.
- Home teams were 10-5 SU and 8-7 ATS in the NFL last week.
- Favorites were 13-3 SU and 9-7 ATS in the NFL last week.
Totals Report
The Over was profitable in the 49ers’ games last season, going 9-6-2, and that winning continued in last week’s win over the Jets, going over the total of 43 points.
The Under went 10-7 in Vikings games last season, and last week’s win over the Giants fell Under the total line of 41 points.
Overs played 9-7 in NFL Week 1.
Free NFL Betting Pick
San Francisco just beat what’s supposed to be a pretty good Jets team, and soundly. Minnesota just beat a bad Giants team. From there we give the 49ers our handicapping check-marks at QB, with the running game and on defense. Also, playing on the road keeps the spread a bit more amenable. The Vikes out-played the Niners that day last season; our guess is that won’t happen Sunday. We like San Francisco minus the points.
