49ers vs. Rams Week 3 Predictions and Picks

San Francisco 49ers (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Rams (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 3
Date/Time: Sunday, September 22, 2024 at 4:25PM EDT
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
TV: Fox

The San Francisco 49ers make the trip south to face the Los Angeles Rams in a key NFC West battle at SoFi Stadium on Sunday. After acquitting themselves well in week one by forcing the Lions to take them to overtime, the Rams really bottomed out on Sunday in one of head coach Sean McVay’s low points, a 41-10 thumping at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals. They look for better within their division this week but host an irritated 49ers team, fresh off an upset 23-17 loss at Minnesota. Who should we get behind in this divisional battle in Inglewood?

Desperate Times Already in Week 3

The 49ers are a deep team with a lot of guys who can step in, but they’re starting to see their top talent on offense start dropping off, reminding one of recent previous years where injuries robbed them of their power. It’s one thing to be without Christian McCaffrey, but with Deebo Samuel now missing time, it’s getting a little thin. It’s nice that Jordan Mason has stepped up, something you’d imagine he can continue to do. But with a late-to-camp Brandon Aiyuk and a version of George Kittle who doesn’t put forth giant games like he used to leading the way, things could get ugly looking ahead. To their credit, they have more to lean on than just big names on offense.

The same can’t really be said for a Rams’ team where a big bulk of what makes them dangerous is that Puka Nacua/Cooper Kupp one-two punch at WR. First it was Nacua who went to IR and it might be Kupp next, who will at least miss some time. They still have Matthew Stafford and Kyren Williams, but you wonder what happens to their run-game with most of the aerial danger now on the sidelines. A nice receiving corps isn’t the only thing they do well, but without it, a rosy outlook is hard to maintain. At 0-2 already, there’s some desperation starting to settle into this locker-room.

Good Spot for the Niners

Based on what we saw from the Rams last week, the absence of the 49ers’ star power on offense might not be something that’s felt until later. The Rams really suffered along the offensive line with some pieces out on Sunday, and that doesn’t figure to improve against the Niners. It’s early in the week to get a read on personnel, but between an aging Stafford fighting for his life, the lack of run-blocking, and the bulk of their aerial power out of commission, this is a spot where you’d anticipate the Niners’ defense to potentially control the game.

Even with the 49ers’ diminished powers on offense, they can still do some things in this context. The Rams haven’t been too adept at stopping the run through two games, allowing 122 yards to James Conner last week. With Jordan Mason filling in for CMC with a pair of 100-yard games so far, this is a definite avenue for success against the Rams this week. And with Aiyuk, Kittle, Jauan Jennings, and anyone else available who might step up, they still have Brock Purdy back there to make something happen through the air. They still have viable targets, while the Rams are really reduced to rubble in that category. And that’s with all due respect to DeMarcus Robinson and Ty Johnson, along with guys who might be called into action for the Rams, like Tutu Atwell and rookie Tyrone Whittington.

What to Expect

On one hand, it’s not easy to get behind the Rams right now, even getting a TD in a divisional game at home. After watching an uncelebrated Arizona pass-rush get home so much against the Rams last week, it’s hard to not project doom on that front this week. If the SF defense is able to hone in on Kyren Williams and this Rams’ run-game, it’s going to make that part of the Rams’ outlook appear dreary running behind that offensive line. Stafford can try spraying it around to his different targets, but how much of an impact can they expect out of that part of their game? Meanwhile, the Niners should be able to control the game with defense and their run game, making it hard for the Rams to get into a groove and stay in the game. And for the Rams’ purposes, they’d almost be better off if the 49ers had won last week, as they’re not going to catch a San Fran sleeping on their beleaguered and desperate opponent.

The depreciated state of the Rams and how bad they looked last week still doesn’t alone make San Fran all that desirable as the better-than-a-TD favorite on the road. These divisional games can be more of a grind than what appears on paper. All looked in order in their week one win against the Jets. They were off-key last week, and it wasn’t just the injury, as they had Samuel for most of the game. You just typically don’t want to go laying a bunch of points on the road and in-division on a team you suspect will be relying on “D” and the run-game. And despite the Niners having been one of the more resilient teams in the face of injury in the past handful of seasons, not having Samuel and CMC still has to be accounted for in some way.

Lay the Points on the Road Favorite

If you have an uncomfortable feeling laying points like this on a San Fran team that is dealing with a lot of injuries, you’re not alone. But they’ve been here before, and if they can hold pat and start getting some key guys back in the fold, they could be okay. And it doesn’t look like the Rams are really in a position to enforce its will on a team not being at full-power, with all their offensive woes. I think the 49ers still have enough to get the clear win and the cover against the Rams this week. I’ll take the 49ers.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the San Francisco 49ers minus 7 points.