49ers vs. Jaguars: Betting Tips and Predictions for Week 10

San Francisco 49ers (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS)

Week 10 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, November 12, 2023 at 1PM EST

Where: Everbank Stadium, Jacksonville, Florida

TV: Fox

Betting Odds

Point Spread: SF -3/JAC +3 (Bovada)

Money Line: SF -170, JAC +145

Over/Under Total: 45

The San Francisco 49ers come to Everbank Stadium on Sunday for a week ten showdown with the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Niners are eager to get back on the right track, losers of three straight then recipients of a Week 9 bye. They are hoping that time came into good use because their return to action is no cupcake with the 6-2 Jaguars at home lying in wait. They were also off last week, but went into the bye-week with some serious momentum, winning their last five games. Can the 49ers bounce back or will the Jags continue to roll?

Prospects That the 49ers Can Resume Top Form

On the surface, you’d think the time off would allow for some ailing pieces to get healthier, while also allowing Kyle Shanahan and his staff to coach this group up. On the one hand, it makes no sense for this SF offense to nosedive without the presence of Deebo Samuel, but he could be back, which is apparently more critical than it otherwise would seem. Getting T Trent Williams back on that front line will also be key. For most teams, 5-3 isn’t a cause for panic, but it is when you started off 5-0. With some of those wins coming against so-so teams, this would be a chance to show things are back in working order, beating an out-of-conference playoff team on the road.

But alas, it’s not just the offense. Going against a Jaguars team that can get to opposing defenses a few different ways, what we’ve seen lately from the Niners isn’t promising. We see opposing quarterbacks working in cleaner pockets and having big games while also seeing opposing running backs getting loose on a more regular basis. After an uneven start to the season for the Jaguars’ offense, we’ve seen RB Travis Etienne putting forth some big games, and with Trevor Lawrence using a multitude of aerial weaponry, they’re a lot to deal with. And being at home will be a welcome and well-received aspect of this week for the Jags, with the bye week and road games before that making this their first appearance at home since October 15. This San Francisco defense is not being put into a cushy spot this week.

Challenges for Jacksonville

During this recent string of wins, the Jaguars have faced some iffy offenses and ones that may have been a touch off-key that week. They are also getting a big boost from the offense, with some opponents being taken out their wheelhouse. But a rested San Francisco offense with all their pieces and with an ax to grind might be a challenge beyond what this Jags’ defense has been seeing recently. It’s a lot to contain, with Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk catching balls, along with a good TE in George Kittle. Christian McCaffrey surfaces in this spot with fresh legs. And, after some rough showings and people questioning him for the first time in his career, it’s also a spot where QB Brock Purdy has a little something extra to prove this week. And sure, it’s a difficult spot overall for San Francisco on Sunday, but purely along the lines of defensive matchups, maybe this isn’t the worst spot for the Niners this week.

It’s not like the Jaguars’ record or five-game win streak is built on beating bad teams. They’ve beaten the Saints, Steelers, and Bills—teams all above .500. But they also got their clocks cleaned by Houston, scored only nine against Kansas City, and have wins over Atlanta and two against Indy. The 49ers team we’ve seen in the last several weeks would fit in favorably with the teams the Jaguars have been facing, but in the event that a closer-to-peak version of the 49ers surfaces, it would represent an upgrade in the quality of opponent that the Jaguars have seen as of late.

What to Expect

San Francisco’s defense hasn’t really taken a big step back. There was the poor showing against the Bengals, but they still aren’t giving up a ton. They look to tap back into their big play ability, with the pass rush being something they want to rediscover with Nick Bosa and others. Out of the two teams, it’s actually been the Jags who we’ve seen get a pass rush going, along with their big-play component. But a 49ers’ defense that is operating the way it wants to be is both stout and game-changing.

Otherwise, you have some similarities with these teams. Naturally, there is a major dichotomy at quarterback, with Lawrence being the best draft prospect of the past decade while Purdy was the last pick in the draft. But both teams have impactful backs with Etienne and McCaffrey, viable multiple aerial targets, along with a good tight end. But if looking to break down the more impactful group, maybe it’s the Niners who get the small edge with the game-changing ability of McCaffrey, the contributions of Kittle, and the dependability and versatility of Aiyuk and Samuel. Not that guys like Etienne, Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, and TE Evan Engram don’t form a powerful unit, but it’s food for thought if this turns into some kind of shootout if these defenses don’t have their acts together.

Take the Road Favorite

In all candidness, a San Fran backer this week can’t be thrilled at this spread. They’ve dropped three in a row against a team that has won five in a row and is at home. On the surface, it rings a little wrong. But I like how this San Francisco team has responded to midseason issues like this in recent years, where the extra urgency usually registers in the positive. I see a pumped-up 49ers team getting it done this week. I’ll take San Francisco in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the San Francisco 49ers minus 3 points.

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