49ers vs. Buccaneers Week 10 NFL Picks and Predictions

San Francisco 49ers (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS)
NFL Football Week 10
Date/Time: Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 1PM EST
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, Florida
TV: Fox

The San Francisco 49ers come to Raymond James Stadium on Sunday for an NFC showdown with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The 49ers had last week off, coming off an MNF win over the Cowboys, 30-24. The win brought them up to 4-4 in what has been a slow start to the season for the injury-riddled defending conference champions. They now take to the road against a Tampa team coming off a tough Monday Night Football loss to the undefeated Chiefs, losing 30-24 in overtime. With that being their third straight loss, the Buccaneers are in need of a positive development. Who should we get behind in this battle of NFC teams?

Good Spot for San Francisco?

A cross-country road game against a dangerous team is unideal for many different reasons, but maybe this isn’t such a bad spot for the Niners. Whereas they had last week off to rest their weary bones and maybe even start to see some guys return, Tampa is coming off the short week. At the very least, some of the challenges that come from this road-spot for the Niners are mitigated with the rest-differential being so stark. And while this needs to be verified later in the week as injury news starts to better form, San Fran could be getting RB Christian McCaffrey back. And beyond the sheer production, he creates, and the attention he takes off others is the morale boost his return could provide for a team looking for a second-half push.

It’s still a lot to overcome for a 49ers team that has been inordinately hit by injuries. The defensive side of the ball is missing a lot of horsepower with players on IR. They lost WR Brandon Aiyuk for the season. Even their kicker is weeks away from returning. The 49ers have dealt with this before and are one of the more resilient teams when it comes to dealing with injuries. In the Shanahan era, it’s been something they’ve had to deal with more often than not. But if their personnel setbacks continue to manifest and you see a defense receding to the mid-pack, while QB Brock Purdy suffers with his toolbox depleted, it’s not hard to imagine teams like Tampa making them pay for it.

Critical Spot

Both teams benefit from being in the divisions they are in. Granted, the Buccaneers are not in an optimum position with the 6-3 Falcons in their division already with two divisional wins over Tampa this season. But the Falcons are still within reach and far from foolproof going into the second half of the season. San Fran, meanwhile, despite all their issues this season, benefits from the NFC West being a big mish-mosh through week 9, with Arizona barely poking their heads up at 5-4. I just suspect that both teams will be making that extra push now to start making some headway. You could even say as defending conference champs, the Niners are more likely to start feeling the heat and be spurned to some better showings, particularly if CMC returns. But after winning the division last season, it’s not like Tampa doesn’t also have an agenda that should give way to some extra urgency, perhaps.

The Buccaneers are in a state of some peril, however. They have performed admirably against some tough teams recently, but while doing things like pushing a home Chiefs team to overtime is commendable, the losses continue to pile. Moral victories will no longer suffice. They are without their top two weapons on offense, Ch, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans, and they’re not really a team built to thrive without their best stuff. They still have some talented pass-catchers. TE Cade Otton has really stepped up in recent games, and they have some nice variety out of the backfield, with backs who can chip in some with the aerial production, but it’s just not the same.

Facing Facts with the Bucs

In their last five games, the Buccaneers have not given up fewer than 27 points in any game. At times, it’s like you wonder when Todd Bowles’ handiwork on that side of the ball will pay off. This seems like a good week for the 49ers offense to reform and start to put together what they plan on becoming for the rest of the season in what seems like a doable spot. Some pieces of the puzzle don’t shake out amazingly well for the Bucs this week. Monday was a draining overtime affair, with the Bucs storming back late to score the game-tying TD, only to fall in the extra period. The Niners were off last week. Tampa will have a version of their offense that is far-diminished from their ideal state. It’s not a bad matchup for the Niners.

Lay the Number on the Road Favorite

It’s difficult finding a line of reasoning that states this is the week the Buccaneers get the boost they need to turn these close losses into wins. The Niners at 4-4 need to get moving and coming off the bye, and if they get McCaffrey back, they look to be a team that could be in trouble in the second half of the season. And a reeling Tampa Bay at less than full power on offense and not really thriving on defense just looks to be an opponent that is right up the Niners’ alley. I’ll take San Francisco in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the San Francisco 49ers minus 4.5 points.