2025 Super Bowl Picks – The Fish Might Surprise

2025 Super Bowl Contender

Top Contenders:

Kansas City Chiefs (+425)

• While repeating is never easy, doubting the Kansas City Dynasty hasn’t really paid off, either. This is a roster packed with big-time players who know how to cultivate a championship season. Patrick Mahomes gets Travis Kelce back for another season. Losing some pieces like top corner L’Jarius Sneed isn’t good, but unlike some long-running successful teams, the Chiefs have managed to avoid having their roster get picked clean.
• Despite Mahomes being able to get a ton out of this offense last season en route to a Super Bowl win, they addressed the air-attack in the offseason. Travis Kelce is still capable of delivering big performances but is aging, while the rest of a promising receiver package, including Rashee Rice, is sometimes not thrilling. Adding Xavier Worthy in the draft gives them an ultra-speedy receiver who can open things up. Adding veteran Marquise Brown could help, too.
• The Chiefs are masters at coasting into a high postseason seeding and then turning it on when it counts most. It’s a team that knows how to get through the ups and downs of a draining 17-game schedule with enough left to thrive when all the chips are in the pot. Their six divisional games in the AFC West this season could span a wide range of difficulty, as the Chargers, Raiders, and Broncos are teams that are hard to peg. Having to go through the whole AFC North with two road games late in the season is rough, with a tour through the NFC South slightly less-daunting. Throw in one-off games against the likes of Houston, Buffalo, and San Francisco, and you see a schedule that could eat up a team suffering from any kind of Super Bowl hangover. Still, expect to see them in the postseason mix once again, which means they need to be accounted for in a big way.

San Francisco 49ers (+650)

• After coming as close as a team can last season, the defending NFC champions enter 2024 with one goal in mind, which is winning it all. They found their franchise QB in Brock Purdy, and with him still on his rookie deal, they can add pieces to help. With an offensive core of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle, Purdy has a lot to work with, in addition to first-round rookie WR Ricky Pearsall coming aboard this season. While not weak up front, they need to keep Purdy out of trouble to insulate him from some of the injury concerns that have popped up since he’s been the starter. Defensively, they look to improve against the run but still boast some of the higher-end talent in the league on that side of the ball.
• The Niners present a package that is very reliable. We’ve seen in the last few years that they are one of the more resilient teams in the face of injury, with their overall system surpassing the importance of any one player or small group of players. They do a lot of things well, so if one thing goes south or a key player is out, it has less of an effect than it would have on other teams. Of all the viable candidates to win it all this season, they might be the most foolproof, and after losing to the Chiefs twice this decade in the Super Bowl, including last season, look for the Niners to have a little edge this season as they try to win it all.
• The road to glory will not be an easy one from a scheduling standpoint. While two games against the Cardinals seem easy enough on paper, the Rams and Seahawks are still tough competition. They have to go through the tough NFC North, in addition to the AFC East, two divisions where there are any number of pitfalls in the Niners’ path. Add in games against Tennessee, Las Vegas, and Kansas City, and we see the 49ers’ road to the postseason isn’t littered with rose petals. Still, this football machine has a dialed-in formula for success that one shouldn’t suspect ends soon.

Detroit Lions (+1100)

• On the precipice of a Super Bowl berth last season, before falling to the Niners in a come-from-behind loss in the NFC title game, the Lions have formed into a conference power under Dan Campbell. With all the galaxy-brained hires falling flat, it was the everyman Campbell who nearly ended up rising to the top. The draft might have paid off, with first-round corner Terrion Arnold joining the defense, along with more help up front with DJ Reader and Marcus Davenport coming aboard.
• One must project the potential for growth with an offense that has a lot of young stars forming around resurgent QB Jared Goff. Amon Ra-St. Brown is a proven number-one at receiver, but with more improvement from game-changers like second-year players TE Sam LaPorta and RB Jahmyr Gibbs, there will be a lot for opposing defenses to contain, as we well saw last season from a clutch group of guys who finally learned how to win with their most-impressive playoff showing in the Super Bowl era.
• Part of you almost feels like a regression could take place, just on the basis of Detroit’s putrid historical standing in this league. One season alone does not undo the decades upon decades of futility. But there was no smoke and mirrors to the Lions’ success, a team that does a lot of things right on both sides of the ball. So, while some backsliding could be in the cards, I think accepting last season as a sign this team has arrived is the wise course of action.

Dark Horse Picks:

Miami Dolphins (+2500)

• The trajectory of this team lines up nicely for a 2024 surge, following two seasons where they made the playoffs, getting eliminated in the wild-card round both times. Head coach Mike McDaniel has them headed in the right direction. They added Shaquill Barrett and first-round edge-rusher Chop Robinson from Penn State, hoping to bolster a defense that sometimes didn’t keep pace with the other side of the ball.
• This comes down to whether the Dolphins can establish consistency. They also need to do the kind of job they did last year in keeping Tua Tagovailoa healthy. But at their top gear, they are the most explosive offense in the league. With Tua slinging it to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, with the 1-2 running back punch of Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane taking over games in spots, they are a handful, and if they catch some good momentum and get into a groove, they could be dangerous. Getting out of the AFC East isn’t easy, but their schedule is workable, and they should at least be in the mix.

Cleveland Browns (+4500)

• Coming off an 11-win season, the Browns might be a nice little sleeper to add to your Super Bowl futures package. Their odds are a result of them not being talked about more than a real representation of their chances, making this one of the more value-oriented picks on the board. And sure, they’re going to need a boost in several areas— namely, the overall form of disappointing Deshaun Watson. And with a quarterback who has faded as he has, it’s not easy to forecast optimism, perhaps.
• There is still a lot to like in the event that Watson rediscovers his stride. Amari Cooper is a still a top receiver with David Njoku a force at tight end. Nick Chubb and the hungry backs behind him give the Browns one of the better run games in the conference, and there is strength along both lines of scrimmage with game-changing talent like Myles Garrett. Maybe newly-added Jerry Jeudy can give them an aerial boost. It won’t be easy to even get to a position where they can do damage, having to come out of the tough NFC North with the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals, along with taking on the whole NFC East and AFC West, in addition with games at Jacksonville, at New Orleans, and against the Dolphins.

Expert Picks and Predictions

Top Pick to Win the Super Bowl

Team: Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are favored to win it all again for good reason. Having become a dynasty insulates them from a lot of the pitfalls you associate with picking repeat winners, as they have shown they don’t rest on their laurels. Losing a top corner is Sneed can’t be good, but their roster might actually be a tick better overall despite that. And sure, the value on a dynasty like the Chiefs is never great in bets like this, but +425 isn’t all bad for a team looking for its tenth straight divisional title and its fifth Super Bowl appearance in the last six seasons. Actually, you could say it’s pretty decent value.

Best Value Bet

Team: Detroit Lions

At +1100 for the Lions to win the Super Bowl, we might have been conditioned not to perceive that as a solid value. But last season showed that looking at Detroit for what they’ve been instead of what they are now can come at a steep price. This is a hungry team with a lot to prove, and when looking at other teams getting similar odds like Baltimore, Green Bay, Houston, and Buffalo, it just seems like the Lions need fewer things to go right, as things have really taken shape for the Lions on both sides of the ball.

Long Shot Bet

Team: Miami Dolphins

When looking for a team this far down the board, with the Dolphins being 25-to-1, you’re better off picking a team that has at least shown flashes, as inconsistent as they might be. The ‘Fins will look like the most dangerous team in the league a handful of weeks per season and if they can build on that a little, who knows? They’re going to need to prove it against better teams and find some answers on defense, but for as flawed as they were, it was still good for 11 wins last season.

2024 Super Bowl Futures Odds

• Kansas City Chiefs +425
• San Francisco 49ers +650
• Baltimore Ravens +950
• Houston Texans +1000
• Detroit Lions +1100
• Cincinnati Bengals +1500
• Green Bay Packers +1500
• Buffalo Bills +1600
• Dallas Cowboys +1600
• Philadelphia Eagles +1600
• New York Jets +2200
• Miami Dolphins +2500
• Pittsburgh Steelers +3000
• Los Angeles Rams +3500
• Atlanta Falcons +4000
• Chicago Bears +4000
• Los Angeles Chargers +4000
• Cleveland Browns +4500
• Jacksonville Jaguars +5000
• Indianapolis Colts +7000
• Seattle Seahawks +7500
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7500
• Minnesota Vikings +8000
• Las Vegas Raiders +9000
• New Orleans Saints +10000
• Arizona Cardinals +11000
• New York Giants +13500
• Washington Commanders +15000
• New England Patriots +18000
• Denver Broncos +20000
• Tennessee Titans +20000
• Carolina Panthers +30000