2024 AFC Champion Picks and Predictions

2024 AFC Conference Champion Futures Odds

Top Contenders:

• Kansas City Chiefs (+275)
  • Without enough roster changes to forecast a monumental change and an already-established immunity to Super Bowl Hangover, the Chiefs’ track record commands utmost respect. The bottom line is that since Mahomes’ second season (he’s entering his 8th), they have never failed to make it to the AFC title game. Therefore, the notion that you can now book a +275 price with that level of assurance that they will at least be in that spot is a tantalizing proposition on many levels. Just blindly, you’d accept a +275 quote on the Chiefs in that spot regardless of opponent.
  • There are some things that might not bode well, including the loss of their top corner Sneed, the aging of some key guys like Kelce, and the fact that they are two-time defending Super Bowl champions and a downturn has to occur at some point. Still, they got some help in the draft, also boosting Mahomes’ aerial crew with the additions of guys like Marquise “Hollywood” Brown. And key components of this Chiefs football machine like Kelce and Andy Reid, guys who are toward the tail-end of their tenures, aren’t in this to go through the motions. Banking on a dip in urgency to keep them from getting to this point could be foolhardy.
  • Still, you’d like to avoid a decline in their regular season form if they get a little lazy, as things could get rough enough to keep them from a top playoff seeding. The AFC West isn’t particularly easy, even with KC being the longtime top dogs of the division. They go through the AFC North, with a lot of that coming late in the season when those teams are usually battling it out for a postseason spot. We don’t know how hard it will be for the Chiefs to go through the NFC South this season. Throw in games against San Francisco, Buffalo, and Houston and it’s clear that any reduction in form or spirit could make this path a difficult one. I still can’t help but think of how good it will feel to once again be holding a ticket on KC at a good price heading into the title game, something they’ve now made it to six times in a row.
• Baltimore Ravens (+500)
  • After going 13-4 last season, they made it to this spot, losing to the Chiefs, 17-10 in the AFC Championship Game. It showed they are still contenders in this conference, despite some up-and-down seasons under QB Lamar Jackson and head coach John Harbaugh. Longtime tormentor Derrick Henry is now aboard, looking to give the offense a boost. They lost Hollywood Brown, but look for more growth from a good young receiver in Zay Flowers and maybe some help in the draft, along with the continued contributions of Mark Andrews. And getting WR Rashod Bateman’s trajectory going back up wouldn’t hurt either.
  • A nice corner in Nate Wiggins, taken out of Clemson in the first round, adds more depth to a Baltimore defense that had a nice bounce-back year in 2023. In holding the Chiefs to 17 in the title game, they certainly held up their part of the deal and I’d look for them to build on that in 2024, as it will need to be a lynchpin to their success. The offense still has a lot going for it, but unless some pieces fall into place at wide receiver and running back, it will be an offense that might be a little too dependent on the magic of Lamar Jackson.
  • Again, we have seen a wide range from this team in recent seasons. The regular season has its share of pitfalls. It starts in their own division—two games apiece with the Steelers, Bengals, and Browns, a pretty tough divisional schedule with no real breaks. They go through the AFC West, a division that could be pretty tough. The same goes for a tour through the NFC East, with the Eagles and Cowboys being difficult hurdles to overcome. Throw in one-offs against the Texans, Buccaneers, and Bills, and we see that if the Ravens make it to this spot, they definitely will have earned it.
• Cincinnati Bengals (+800)
  • 2023 may have left a bad taste in some people’s mouths with the Bengals only briefly showing flashes of the team that had gone to two straight AFC title games, winning it after the 2021 season. And not that the same things that derailed them can’t resurface this season, but writing them off in this context could be premature, especially with a tasty +800 price being dangled. After all, they spent most of the last 3 years being a strong contender in this conference, with last season being the exception. And with Joe Burrow being injured and lost for the year in midseason, maybe that’s not the best starting-point for an evaluation, even as depreciated as the Bengals looked in ’23 when Burrow was healthy.
  • There is no question we could be seeing a team in some regression. The formula has gotten a bit stale, with no one really rising up to give Burrow options outside of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon are gone and the offensive line faces questions. The “D” hung in there the best they could and it wasn’t a total disaster under Jake Browning, who was surprisingly good as a back-up, but were a big part of the reason the Bengals missed the playoffs.
  • Still, with some better luck on the injury front and some surprise contributions on offense, a healthy Joe Burrow with some good receivers at his disposal is always a threat. And you can trust if they make it to the AFC title game, they will have earned it and will be battle-tested, with a tough AFC North to endure, in addition to going through the AFC West and NFC East. While a difficult schedule in spots, it’s not hard finding at least 11 wins on this schedule and with their postseason track-record, having them at +800 won’t feel too shabby.

Expert Picks and Predictions

Top Pick to Win the AFC Conference Championship

Team: Kansas City Chiefs

It’d be hard to find a surer thing in the history of picking AFC Conference Champions with the Chiefs on a run of 6 straight AFC Championship Game appearances. Other than some fanciful notions of a forecasted downturn or a half-baked belief that two-time defending Super Bowl champions are easy pickings, with no team having ever won three in a row, there’s little ammo to justify discounting them. And whether they get to the big game again, there’s no debate that holding a KC ticket at +275 on the eve of the AFC title game will provide a good feeling.

Best Value Bet

Team: Baltimore Ravens

A quote of +500 on a team with a proven track-record that came one score from taking this down last season can’t be overlooked. Getting nearly twice as good of a price as the Chiefs, the Ravens have the championship makeup, being strong in the trenches, being able to run the ball, and showing last season they don’t melt in the postseason. One should expect the multi-faceted Ravens to be in the mix late.

Long Shot Bet

Team: Miami Dolphins

After two straight postseason appearances, the Dolphins could be poised to kick it up a notch, with youngsters on both sides of the ball coming into their own. Sometimes when looking for darkhorse picks, you look for teams with a lot of changes or where a new big-time player or coach can turn things around. With Miami, it’s more an optimistic projection that we can see some of the good things we’ve seen the last two years on a more regular basis.