2023 NFL Defensive ROY Predictions

2023 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Predictions and Bets

Unlike some other yearend awards in football, the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year is an honor that has been spread out to a lot of different positions and to players who were both heavily hyped and more diamond in the rough type of prospects. It sets up well to take any number of different stances. Lately, one can say that more ballyhooed prospects, those chosen high in the draft, have been more likely to win this, but there are examples of guys more off the radar. It’s not totally tied to team success, but those rookies able to elevate the play of their unit will stand out more.

An important consideration is that, for the most part, high draft picks are going to teams who have a lot of problems. So seldom will any really prized rookie be stepping into an ideal situation, but there are things to look out for. To win this award, any blockage to a starting spot is not going to work. That won’t be the case with most of the top guys, but if you are thinking of a longer shot down the board, you want to consider that. It also helps to be stepping into a “D” with some other pieces, but not too many that the player gets drowned out. You don’t want a star-studded defense making it hard to notice the guy you bet, but there needs to be someone on their part of the field to command some attention, as well.

Positionally, however, you have free reign, with the one exception being the safety position, which just seems to get shut out from this particular honor. It’s gone to linebackers, outside, inside, and middle, in addition to cornerbacks and linemen, both interior and defensive ends, and edge rushers. And with some different metrics on players coming into play, we saw Sauce Gardner win last season with just two picks, showing that being among the best at your position could be enough even if you don’t have a glimmering stat sheet. Still, a player racking up a bunch of sacks or picks would certainly help their cause. Positionally, there might not be much bias, but being a shutdown corner or a good pass-rusher are the top two routes to winning this. Here are our favorite selections to win the Defensive Rookie of the Year. (All odds by Bovada)

Top Picks to Win the 2023/24 Defensive Rookie of the Year

Will Anderson, Houston Texans (+350): A serious contender for this honor, though perhaps not the best value. Granted, the third overall pick is going into a nice situation where he can shine on a Houston defense that doesn’t have a ton of standouts, though he can be borderline respectable in spots. He also has a playing style that will allow him to shine on a stat sheet, which will give him an edge. But the former Alabama EDGE will be playing on a team that is really out of the limelight for the most part, a team you can almost sometimes ignore. But even at the short odds and without the visibility of others on this list, he has to rate as a serious contender.

Jalen Carter, Philadelphia Eagles (+600): A bit of a unique entry, with Philly having a top-ten pick despite making it to the Super Bowl last season. The former star Georgia defensive tackle possesses explosiveness and a craftiness beyond his years, though some might hold it against him that his 2021 season was better than 2022. And on the one hand, the Philly defensive front is so loaded that blockers won’t be able to key in on Carter. Then again, with so many hands in the pot on this already-loaded Eagles’ front, may Carter’s effectiveness get drowned out? Will he not get enough snaps?

Christian Gonzalez, New England Patriots (+950): The skilled Oregon corner went to the Patriots with the number-17 pick. Arguably the best press-man corner in this class, it’s hard not to notice how much Bill Belichick has thrived in getting the most out of those types of cornerbacks over the many years. He’s long and athletic and the kind of perimeter cornerback that Belichick usually puts into heavy rotation right away, setting up for what could be the kind of rookie campaign that makes Gonzalez a tough guy to ignore at the nice value quote of +950.

Devon Witherspoon, Seattle Seahawks (+1000): The fifth pick in the draft, the Illinois corner is a bit raw and unrefined, misses a lot of tackles, and failed to tantalize with just five picks in a 4-year career with the Fighting Illini. Seattle also needs to show they can sustain a pass-rushing element to help the guys in the back some. But with some developing youngsters on that side of the ball for the Seahawks, something tells me Witherspoon could thrive. Combine that with Pete Carroll’s known acumen for developing corners, and we could see Witherspoon deliver a style of play that really stands out in a highly-visible way.

Favorite Longshot on the Board for Defensive Rookie of the Year

Joey Porter, Jr, Pittsburgh Steelers (+2500): One should be reminded that this is an award that people vote on, and people are sentimental by nature. A lot of writers can recall being a younger man or a kid watching Joey Porter doing his thing on the Steelers, and now his son, a stud corner out of Penn State, is poised to hit the field. The first pick of the second round, there are some more-celebrated prospects on this list, to be sure, hence the 25-to-1 odds. The young Porter is extremely long for a corner and developed a lot of polish in his years with Penn St. You look at the Steelers’ pass rush and how the whole unit is on the rise, needing a good corner to help bring it all together. If Porter, Jr. becomes that guy, he’d be in the mix at a nice number.

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