2023 AFC West Betting Guide: Win Total Forecasts

Kansas City looks to defend its Super Bowl Championship for the 2nd time in 4 years and also defend the division title they have won since 2015. Will this finally be the year someone knocks Patrick Mahomes, and KC come down to earth? The AFC West will battle AFC East and NFC North, which doesn’t really move the needle on season wins. Let’s look at how to play each team’s posted win total at BOVADA.LV, and maybe some other props available in the division.

Kansas City Chiefs: Over 11.5, -150

The Chiefs have undoubtedly been the best team in the NFL over the recent past, but they have not been very good to bettors, covering the game spreads only 44% of the time. However, when it comes to season win totals, they have rewarded those that have invested in them, cashing Over tickets in each of the last four years. Every year there is some narrative about how some team will dethrone them atop the AFC West, and every year KC ends up on top, and it isn’t even close. Andy Reid is the best offensive mind in the business, directing the best quarterback, and you know the rest of the story. KC’s receivers were the question mark last year, but it didn’t stop Mahomes from throwing for 5250 yards. They lost JuJu Smith-Schuster to the Patriots, but I think the receiving corps will be better with Sky Moore in his second year and rookie Rashee Rice contributing more as the season goes along. Of course, Mahomes always has TE Travis Kelce when a big play needs to be made. The running game returns Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon, and the defense will be basically the same as last year, which will be enough for Reid and Mahomes to cover this line. The Chiefs have won 12 or more games in the last five years, and there is no reason to doubt them this year.

Los Angeles Chargers: Over 9.5, -145

The Chargers are the prime candidate this year to topple the Chiefs, and while I doubt they will take that giant step, I do think they get to double-digit wins. Justin Herbert is a top 5 quarterback, with excellent skill players surrounding him in Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler. Rookie burner Quentin Johnston joins the receiving crew and will add a new dimension with his ability to take the top off of the defense. LA’s offensive line should be better this year, with LT Rashawn Slater back healthy. The defense also struggled through injury issues in 2022, losing pass rusher Joey Bosa and cornerback J.C. Jackson for big parts of the season, and both are ready to go in 2023. The defense has to improve after being 30th in opponent’s yards per play last year if this team is going to compete to make a deep playoff run, and I think they will make that step this year. I do like playing the Under 900.5 receiving yards for Allen (-115) and Under 850.5 receiving yards for Williams. Both players get hurt every year, and Johnston should become a bigger part of the receiving game as the season progresses.

Denver Broncos: Under 8.5: -115

Sean Payton has arrived on his white horse to save the day for the Broncos and Russell Wilson after the disastrous 2022 campaign that saw Denver only win five games. Payton is obviously a huge upgrade from Nathaniel Hackett last year, but it’s hard to say that he is worth four additional wins. Wilson’s struggles were well documented, and his receivers, Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, who were expected to set the league on fire, didn’t move the needle. The offensive line may have been the biggest issue last year, allowing 63 sacks and not opening holes in the running game, and they won’t be much better this year. The defense was overall middle of the pack, but they don’t have a pass rusher to help slow down the offenses they will face. Payton should bring back some toughness to the mile-high city, but I don’t think that is enough for this team to have a winning season. I like Wilson under 3650.5 passing yards, as I think Payton will want to run the ball more, and Wilson may not be any good anymore.

Las Vegas Raiders: Under 5.5: +120

This is my favorite play in this division, and it’s primarily a bet against Josh McDaniels. McDaniels led the Raiders to 6 wins in his 2022, his first season with Vegas. In the process, he shipped out quarterback Derek Carr, who did struggle in McDaniel’s offense, but was a top 15 QB before 2022. McDaniels will now lean on his ex-Patriot buddies Jimmy Garoppolo and Brian Hoyer. Jimmy G is a major downgrade, and Hoyer doesn’t belong in the league anymore. McDaniels is following his Denver 2009/10 coaching script, in which he was fired in 2010 with three wins after 12 games. The Raiders have 1 of the best receivers in the game in Davante Adams and a top rusher in Josh Jacobs, and both are disgruntled; Adams is upset that Carr was shipped out, and Jacobs is holding out, wanting a new contract. Maxx Crosby is a premier defensive player in this league, but he has little help around him. The Vegas defense allowed the 26th most points in the league and was 30th in sacks, even with Crosby. I envision this team imploding under McDaniels this year and potentially competing for the worst record in the league. Adams Under 1250.5 receiving yards seems like a lock, and Under whatever yardage Jacobs total is set at when he finally gets into camp should also hit. BOVADA.LV doesn’t offer a bet on the first coach to be fired, but McDaniels is my choice to cash that ticket.