2023 AFC East Season Win Bets: Lines & Picks

The AFC East promises to be an exciting division in 2023, with three of the four teams as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Aaron Rodgers moving to the Jets is the biggest off-season headline, filling the biggest weakness in the division in 2022. The AFC East lines up against the AFC West and NFC East in 2023. Let’s look at pre-season win total lines offered at BetAnySports (They let you bet on games at -105 instead of -110!) to see how to play each team and a couple of other bets to take advantage of.

Buffalo Bills: Under 10.5 Wins, +120

Buffalo is the team that was expected to unseat the Chiefs over the last two seasons, but they didn’t live up to the hype and then struggled some in the second half of last season. Rather than circling the wagons this off-season, the Bills have had some cracks showing in their locker room, with star receiver Stefon Diggs showing some anger towards the team and QB Josh Allen. Allen has become one of the elite dual-threat QBs in the league, but at some point, the hits he takes from running like a fullback will take its toll – or maybe it started to last year. The offense is not as dominant as it was a couple of years ago, and their inability to play power football has cost them. I think the defense was fortunate last year to play an easy quarterback schedule, especially after Von Miller went down. Miller is 34, so don’t look for him to bounce back and be his old dominant self. Without a pass rush, the defense is fair at best. I think time is running out for the Bills, and this is the year they fall back to the pack and not be as dominant as they have been the past few years. I like plus money on the Bills to max out at ten wins.

New York Jets: Under 9.5, +100

Here comes Aaron Rodgers with his 4 MVP titles to bring the Jets to the promised land. The team started 6-3 last year before the abysmal quarterback play doomed them to finish with seven losses in their last eight games. Though Rodgers definitely makes Gang Green a serious threat, the team has garnered a lot of public support, so there is value in the Under. Rogers did not play at an MVP level last year, and his supporting cast isn’t any better than it was with the Packers. New York is counting on perennially injured Mekhi Becton and 40-year-old Duane Brown to man the tackle positions, which will probably go south in a hurry. Breece Hall should be ready to start the season, and Garrett Wilson could elevate his game to being a top 5 receiver after winning Offensive Rookie of the Year in ’22. Coach Robert Saleh has only won 11 games total in his two seasons, so he needs to prove he can handle the pressure of high expectations. The team just has too much to prove to think they can get to 10 wins in the solid AFC. Another way to fade the Jets is to bet them not to make the playoffs at +110, which should hit if they don’t get to 10 wins. One player I like betting on this team is Wilson. BOVADA.LV is offering +2000 for him to lead the NFL in touchdowns, and I also like their offering of +275 for Wilson to have one game with over 175 receiving yards.

Miami Dolphins: Over 9.5, -120

The only team I like to go over their win total in this division is the Dolphins. This bet is 100% a bet that Tua Tagovailoa will not suffer another concussion that could knock him out for the season – at least not early in the season. Tua led the Fins to victories in 8 of his 13 starts last year, while the team only managed one win in the four games he didn’t start. Tua doesn’t have the strongest arm in the league, but he is top 5 in the accuracy department, which is how this offense is set up. Tyreek Hill and Jaylon Waddle are the fastest wide receiver combo in the NFL and will look to improve on the 3066 yards they combined for last year. There is no defense that can match Miami’s speed, and Head Coach Mike McDaniel will be able to better use his talent in his second year. Vic Fangio takes over as Defensive Coordinator, which is an automatic upgrade to the defense that finished 24th in points allowed but was 13th in opponents’ yards per play. They have already lost their prize free agency signee Jalen Ramsey, but I count on Fangio to improve the D. Bovada.LV is also dealing Miami at +290 to win over 11.5, which I like to sprinkle a little on to bet on getting some exposure to the upside of this team.

New England Patriots: Under 7.5, -135

For the first time since Tom Brady left Michigan, the Patriots come into a regular season with very little hope. Their only real asset is Coach Bill Belichick, but it has become evident that his Patriot Way only works when Brady is the quarterback. The Patriots did manage to scratch out eight wins in 2022, but they have no offensive playmakers, a defense with no speed, and the team didn’t even look like a well-coached team. Bill O’Brien comes back to take over the offense, which will be a huge coaching improvement, but Mac Jones is still a pedestrian QB that can’t throw the ball downfield and doesn’t have receiving playmakers. Defenses figured out Jones last year, and he couldn’t make adjustments and was happy to just blame everything on the coaches. Their defense was middle of the pack in points allowed and yards per play, but they don’t have the team speed to keep up with the offensive powerhouses in the AFC. I think this is the year the wheels totally fall off for Belichick and crew, and the Pats limp into January with 4 or 5 wins. My favorite play in the AFC East is the Pats under win total, and I really like under 5.5 at +165 also.

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