2021 Dallas Cowboys Season Win Odds & Best Bet
Dallas Cowboys Season Wins Total Odds and Pick
By Loot Levinson, NFL Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
We see the wins total for the Cowboys is 9, with Betanysports.eu offering -110 on over and -120 on under. They are also offering +2850 on Dallas winning the Super Bowl. After winning the division with ten wins in 2018, the Cowboys slipped to 8-8 in 2019, before seeing not a lot go their way last season with a 6-10 mark. They had excuses, with a lot of injuries, namely to their starting QB Dak Prescott. One could understand the optimism, with Prescott coming back and some blossoming youngsters developing, within a weak division, the chances will be there.
Betting Value
Value is an important concept when making a season-long bet. You could maybe neglect it for a one-game window, but it’s key in bets that last all season. When it comes to the Cowboys typically, the value isn’t that wonderful on these types of bets. A team that boasts of massive national support, the Cowboys are a team that doesn’t require the sportsbook to offer the most tantalizing odds. To get people to bet on teams where the support is more-regional, the value is usually going to be a lot better.
This season’s futures bets for the Cowboys bear this out to some extent. The total is 9 wins, so for it to go over, you need ten wins, something the Cowboys have only pulled off three times since 2009. And a lot of those seasons set up better than this one does. And while +2850 sounds like nice return on a Dallas Super Bowl win, they haven’t been there since Bill Clinton’s first term. And since 1996, their entire playoff success consists of three wild card playoff game wins. That’s it. And still, we see them getting odds as if they are this solidified contender and that’s simply not the case.
Real Causes for Optimism
Until being lost after week five last season, Prescott was proving to be a durable and consistent force at quarterback who was still improving. If he can step back and in and not miss much of a beat, that’s a big plus. They’re solid in the backfield with Ezekiel Elliott with real threats aerially in Amari Cooper and blossoming CeeDee Lamb, along with productive Michael Gallup. Offering more promise is the return of a battered offensive line from last year that looks to return to its previous level of excellence with Tyron Smith, La’el Collins, and Zack Martin back in the fold full-time.
Dan Quinn returns to his role as defensive coordinator, a position where he has forged some success before. Last season was more of a systemic failure for the Dallas defense, as they really do have the horses to fashion a strong unit, if key personnel remains healthy. There has been a level of underachievement on this side of the ball, with Dexter Lawrence and Jaylon Smith needing to get better. But LB Micah Parsons should really help out, as the first-rounder has a chance to make an impact right away.
There are aspects of their schedule which shake out favorably, namely their divisional schedule. Say what you will about the prospects of the Giants, Eagles, and Washington this season, but playing two games apiece against sub-.500 opposition from last season carries advantages other teams don’t enjoy. Throw in home games against Carolina, Denver, Las Vegas and Atlanta, along with winnable road games at New England, Minnesota, and New Orleans, the path to 9 or more wins isn’t that unrealistic perhaps.
Hold Your Horses
Even the staunchest Cowboys supporter would have to concede that their reputation and the hopes their supporters possess for them hasn’t actually manifested into on-field excellence in quite some time. Taking it a step further, it never seemed like Mike McCarthy was really fitting into the role all that well last season. There seemed to be a chasm between coach and player, with the “D” plummeting to franchise-worst levels on McCarthy’s watch. Sure, the conditions were bad with injuries left and right in a challenging season. But it never seemed to be close to getting on the right track. A 10-win season emanating from that would seem to require a huge effort and some good breaks along the way.
Prescott is good, but at his best is a step below elite. It might be premature to forecast Elliott being on the downslide, but he’s coming off his worst season and isn’t the impactful runner he once was. Amari Cooper is on-fire some weeks and disappears in others. CeeDee Lamb is a promising prospect, but hardly a slam-dunk as a future number-one top receiver. Then you have an offensive line that is healthier, but one wonders if they can stay that way. And should something happen to Prescott, it’s going to look a lot like it did last season.
The arrival of Quinn offers hope for a wayward defense. But having spent a lot of money on players who haven’t delivered has taken its toll. The line is hoping some youngsters deliver and that Lawrence rediscovers his fire. In the middle, Parsons offers hope, but Leighton Vander Esch has become an injury liability, while Smith has receded greatly. There is potential-galore in the secondary, but there are a lot of moving pieces and unproven youngsters. Will they all come through?
And while the schedule offers some relief, there are patches of it that could put this team behind the 8-ball. Opening the season with two road games is bad enough, but when it’s Super Bowl Champion Tampa and then the Chargers, it’s really tough. A little later, they go into Kansas City. And now you’re reduced to precious few slip-ups for the Cowboys to hit ten wins.
Let’s Go Under 9 Wins on The Cowboys
First off, +2850 on this team to win the Super Bowl is out of the question. Nine or more wins is certainly easier to justify and truth be told, a pretty salient case can be made for that. After all, that’s the nature of these bets and when the bookie says two things have an almost-even chance of happening, it’s foolish to not consider the opposite side. The bottom line is that it doesn’t appear that enough aspects of the team are headed in the right direction to justify forecasting that big of a spike in wins in 2021.
