2019 NFL Draft Prop Bets

The NFL draft is around the corner and the future stars of the NFL will be gathering in Nashville to walk on stage and hug Roger Goodell. Last year the betting public fared well against the sportsbooks with bets on the NFL draft. Betonline.ag has posted various odds and prop bets. Let’s look at some to see where there is value.

1st overall pick in 2019 Draft

Kyler Murray -400
Quinnen Williams +500
Nick Bosa +300
Josh Allen +2500

Arizona’s 3 win campaign earned them the first pick in the draft. Those same 3 wins earned head coach Steve Wilks his pink slip and Kliff Kingsbury is now the head coach in the desert. While Kingsbury was still coaching Texas Tech and playing against Murray he stated would pick Murray number 1 if he had the chance. Now he has the chance, and all signs point to Murray being the first name called in Music City. Rumors abound that the Cardinals are taking offers to trade last year’s number 10 overall pick Josh Rosen, but reportedly have only been offered a 2nd round pick. Picking up Rosen for only a first round pick would be a steal for multiple teams around the league such as the Dolphins or Redskins, so I look for a trade to happen in the days prior to the draft. Kingsbury was brought in to run his offense and he wants Murray, -400 is a fair price to pay.

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The Cardinals do have options and although Murray may be Kingsbury’s guy, Rosen is the guy GM Steve Keim picked last year. There is a chance Kingsbury comes around to Rosen or Keim doesn’t get the right offer and Murray isn’t selected by Arizona. If this happens, the Cardinals could trade the pick or select either edge rusher Bosa or D-Tackle Williams. If they trade the pick, I think it’s to a team that will pick Murray. If a team had their eye on someone else, they probably don’t trade all the way up to number 1. This draft is rich in defensive line / pass rushers so teams don’t have to trade up to 1 get an impact player on that side of the ball. There haven’t been any rumors of the Cardinals taking any of these defensive players, but I would expect them to go with Bosa if they don’t take Murray. Rushing the passer is the key to NFL defense in 2019, so Bosa makes more sense. At +300 there should be better than a 1 in 4 chance Bosa chance he is the pick and I don’t think it’s that high. Allen’s price make it worth taking a look but there is a little more risk with him, and the Cardinals can’t miss on this pick. The chalk play for the number pick is Murray, but it’s the right play.

Beyond the number 1 pick, here are my favorite plays from the betonline.ag board.

When will first wide receiver be selected, Under 19½; -150.

There is no Julio Jones talent in this draft that is a lock to be an early first round pick, but there are multiple guys that project to be potential game changers on the outside, and there are multiple teams that need help at the receiver position. Ole Miss product D.K. Metcalf and Oklahoma’s Marquise “Hollywood” Brown are the two candidates to cash this ticket. Metcalf is an athletic freak but only caught 26 passes in Mississippi’s putrid offense. Hollywood is a burner that can blow the top off of the defense. Brown averaged over 17 yards on his 75 receptions in Norman so he has the game tape to justify his first round selection.

There are multiple teams drafting in the teens that need wide receiver help. Miami at 13, Washington at 15, Carolina at 16, Giants at 17 and Titans at 19 all could pick a wide out on Thursday night. There are also multiple teams drafting at the top that could trade back into the teens that would be candidates to select one of these receivers, including the 49ers and Lions. It is also very feasible that Pittsburgh or Baltimore trade up into the teens to take one of these guys. Last year D.J. Moore was the first receiver selected at number 24 but that was the first time since 2019 that a receiver wasn’t selected before pick 20. It’s a passing league and teams know they have to give their QBs talented players on the outside. This year’s wide receiver free agent group was not very strong, so teams were not able to make an impact in their passing game with a big signing. One of these teams will see a receiver they think elevates their team and they will put his name on the card they turn in. Pay the $150 price that a WR will be picked prior to pick 20.

Number of Quarterbacks in the first round, Over 3½; -250.

This bet is more about the teams needing quarterbacks and their desperate search for Mr. Right than necessarily the players available. Teams with a good chance to take a qb in round one to compete for playing time this year are the Cardinals, Giants (2 picks), Bengals, Dolphins and Redskins. Even if Rosen is traded to one of these clubs, there are 4 landing places for signal callers. On top of these teams, the Saints, Chargers and Patriots could pick their quarterback of the future in the late first round. Throw in the Broncos and Raiders that could also pull the trigger on a QB and there are many landing spots for signal callers. Teams love to pick a QB in the first round because they can control the player’s rights for 5 years before they have to use the franchise tag, so teams could trade into the 31st or 32nd pick if their guy is still out there.

There has to players worthy of a first round pick for these teams to make this investment and I think there are 4 guys that meet the criteria. Murray and Ohio State signal caller Dwayne Haskins are locks to be first round picks. Missouri’s Drew Lock and Duke’s Daniel Jones would need to be called to cash this ticket. Lock is a big arm gun-slinger that is almost a certainty to go in the first round. This makes Jones the guy to watch. Jones was a 3 year college starter who is very pro ready after learning from qb whisperer David Cutcliffe. Every year there is a signal caller like Jones that a qb needy team meets with and convinces themselves that this guy can be their franchise quarterback. One of the teams listed above will go all in on Jones and make him the 4th quarterback taken in the first round in Nashville. Lay the 250.

Number of Alabama players selected in the first round, Over 2 ½; -160.

Defensive Tackle Quinnen Williams and Offensive Tackle Jonah Williams will be first round picks. Beyond that there are multiple Tide players that could hear their name called in the first round including running back Josh Jacobs, inside linebacker Mack Wilson and safety Deionte Thompson as the most likely options. Jacobs is generally considered to be the best running back available this year and though he didn’t set the world on fire with a mediocre pro-day, his game is well rounded and will help his NFL team immediately in both in the running and passing game.

Crimson Tide defensive players are always NFL ready and teams don’t hesitate to start those that have learned under Nick Saban in week 1. The Packers and Rams have picks at the bottom of the first round and would be candidates to take one of these defenders. Tight End Irv Smith could also be the final pick in the first round and try to fill some of Gronk’s shoes in New England. Bama has averaged 3 first rounders over the last 8 year and that trend should continue. Play 3 or more Bama selections.

Defensive Players selected in the first round, Over 16½ ; -150.

This year’s draft class strength is on the defensive side of the ball. Most big boards have at least 20 defensive players in their top 32. The 2019 crop of running backs and wide receivers are not especially deep (prop on running backs over/under 1 and receivers are 2.5). So if 1 running back goes, 3 receivers and 4 quarterbacks that leaves 24 picks between defensive players, tight ends and offensive linemen. There are a couple tight ends that figure to be day one picks, meaning 6 offensive linemen would need to be selected to keep this under. There are a few tackles that are locks to be picked in the first round, and then a host of players on the bubble of 1st and 2nd round picks. Teams at the bottom of the first round are teams that are there because they are super bowl contenders, and all have some defensive needs. I look for these team to favor defensive players that can start week 1 rather than an offensive player that may not contribute much this year. There are defensive players that will be available in the bottom of the first that can be difference makers, so look for their names to be called. Lay the 150 and expect at least 17 defensive players selected on Thursday night.