Warriors vs. Timberwolves: Best Bet for Tonight’s NBA Action

Golden State Warriors (14-12 SU, 15-11 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (14-12 SU, 11-15 ATS)

When: Saturday, December 21st, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Target Center, MN, Minneapolis

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: GS +3.5/Min -3.5

Total: 213.5

Money Line: Golden State Warriors +135/-160

Notable Injuries

Warriors

• Moses Moody (Probable) Knee

Timberwolves

• Joe Ingles (Out) Calf

At 8:00 ET, the Timberwolves (-160) will host the Warriors (+135) in a Western Conference matchup. The Timberwolves are favored by 3.5 points, and the over/under is set at 213.5.

Golden State is currently 10th in the West with a record of 14-12 and is on a three-game losing streak. Minnesota is 8th in the West and also has a record of 14-12.

Recent Form

The Warriors fell to 14-12 on the season after a lopsided 144-93 road loss to the Grizzlies on Thursday. Entering the game as +2.5 point underdogs, Golden State failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 237, just under the 238.5 O/U line.

Memphis took control early, going on an 11-0 run to extend their lead from 31-15 to 42-15. The Warriors struggled to keep up, scoring just 15 points in the 1st quarter and 23 in the 2nd. By the start of the 4th quarter, they trailed 109-59, and although they scored 34 points in the final period, they couldn’t close the gap.

The Timberwolves dropped to 14-12 on the season after a 133-107 home loss to the Knicks on Thursday. Minnesota, favored by 3.5 points, not only lost but failed to cover the spread. The total score of 240 points exceeded the O/U line of 214 by 26 points.

After a competitive 1st quarter, the Knicks went on an 11-0 run and outscored the Timberwolves 41-18 in the 2nd quarter. Minnesota trailed 104-74 going into the 4th, where they outscored New York 33-29, but it was too late to mount a comeback.

The Historicals

Over the last five head-to-head meetings, the Timberwolves have averaged 109 points per game compared to 105 for Golden State. This has led to an ATS record of 3-1-1 for Minnesota. A combined average of 214 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

The Warriors struggled offensively in their 144-93 loss to the Grizzlies, shooting just 35.6% from the field. Their three-point shooting was also below average, hitting 12 threes at a 33.3% clip.

Brandin Podziemski led the way with 21 points, 16 of which came in the 4th quarter. Andrew Wiggins added 19 points, scoring 9 in the 1st quarter and hitting four threes at 80% efficiency.

The Warriors struggled defensively against the Grizzlies, allowing 144 points in a tough loss. Memphis scored at least 32 points in every quarter, including 40 in the 3rd. Golden State gave up 37 points in the 1st, and 35 in the 4th.

Golden State allowed Memphis to shoot 54% from the field and 56% from three, with the Grizzlies hitting 27 threes. The Warriors also gave up 15 offensive rebounds but managed 11 steals and five blocks.

In their loss to the Knicks, the Timberwolves shot 46.1% from the field but connected on 17 threes at a 40.5% rate. Julius Randle led the way with 24 points, hitting four threes at 50% efficiency.

Randle scored 15 of his points in the 1st quarter, while Anthony Edwards added 10 of his 17 points in the 3rd. Donte DiVincenzo also contributed 11 of his 15 points in the final quarter.

The Timberwolves struggled defensively on Thursday, giving up 133 points to the Knicks. Minnesota allowed 32 points in the 1st quarter and 41 in the 2nd, leading to a big halftime deficit. They gave up 31 points in the 3rd quarter and 29 in the 4th.

The Knicks shot 51% from the field, including 44% from three-point range, hitting 20 threes. Minnesota sent New York to the line 16 times, where they made 13 free throws. The Timberwolves gave up 16 offensive rebounds but recorded 10 steals and five blocks.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, Golden State has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 99 per game. The team went 0-3 overall in these games.
• In their last three home games, Minnesota has averaged 106 points per game while allowing 98. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
• Going back to their previous three games as the underdog, Golden State has an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 0-3 straight up.
• Through their last five games as the favorite, the Timberwolves have an ATS record of 4-1 and a straight up mark of 4-1.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Both teams sit at 14-12 heading into Saturday night’s Western Conference matchup, and the Wolves are the slight -3.5 point favorites. Minnesota is looking for a signature win tonight, as their season has not gone as expected so far. I think the Timberwolves really get up for this one, and I see them covering at -3.5.