Warriors vs. Rockets Betting Preview: Pick and Point Spread Prediction

Golden State Warriors (14-9 SU, 14-9 ATS) vs. Houston Rockets (16-8 SU, 16-8 ATS)

When: Wednesday, December 11th, 9:30 PM (ET)

Where: Toyota Center, TX, Houston

TV: TNT

Point Spread: GS +2/Hou -2

Total: 221

Money Line: Golden State Warriors +108/-128

Notable Injuries

Warriors

• Andrew Wiggins (Questionable) Ankle
• De’Anthony Melton (Out) ACL
• Moses Moody (Out) Knee

Rockets

• Steven Adams (Questionable) Right Knee
• Jae’Sean Tate (Questionable) Lower Back
• Alperen Sengün (Questionable) Left Knee
• Cam Whitmore (Questionable) Left Wrist

The Houston Rockets (-128) are favored by 2 points (-2) over the Golden State Warriors (+108) in a Western Conference matchup. The over/under line for the game is 221 points.

This game will be played at the Toyota Center in Houston and is scheduled to start at 9:30 ET. TNT will have the TV coverage for this game.

Recent Form

The Warriors improved to 14-9 this season with a 114-106 win over the Timberwolves on Sunday. Golden State, favored by 1.5 points, covered the spread with the 8-point victory. The game’s total of 220 points went over the pre-game line of 215.5.

After falling behind 30-21 in the 1st quarter, the Warriors bounced back, tying the 2nd quarter 28-28. They took control in the 3rd, outscoring Minnesota 44-32, and held the Timberwolves to 16 points in the 4th to seal the win.

The Rockets improved to 16-8 this season with a 117-106 road win over the Clippers on Sunday. Houston, favored by 3 points, covered the spread, while the game’s total of 223 points went over the line of 214.

A key moment came when the Rockets went on a 12-0 run, stretching the score from 53-50 to 62-53. They outscored the Clippers 34-24 in the 2nd quarter and held a 95-83 lead going into the 4th, where they narrowly lost the quarter 23-22.

The Historicals

Across the previous five meetings between the teams, the Warriors have an average scoring margin of +10 points per game, leading to an ATS mark of 4-1. A combined average of 224 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

Stephen Curry led the Warriors with 30 points and eight assists in their win over the Timberwolves, hitting five threes at a 45.5% rate. Buddy Hield added 27 points, knocking down seven threes at 53.8% efficiency.

Golden State connected on 16 threes as a team, shooting 39% from deep and 46.7% overall. Curry scored 15 points in the 2nd quarter, while Hield and Jonathan Kuminga each added 11 points in the 3rd.

Despite allowing 106 points, the Warriors’ defense came up big in the 4th quarter, giving up just 16 points to help secure the win over the Timberwolves. Golden State allowed Minnesota to shoot 45% from the field.

The Warriors struggled to defend the three, as the Timberwolves hit 19 threes at a 45% clip. Golden State sent Minnesota to the line 20 times, where they made 15 free throws. The Warriors also recorded eight steals and six blocks.

Jalen Green’s 31 points, including five threes, led the Rockets to a win over the Clippers, with Houston hitting 15 threes at a 36.6% rate. Green scored 11 points in the 1st quarter, while Amen Thompson added 11 of his 22 points in the 3rd.

Dillon Brooks contributed 19 points, knocking down four threes at 50%, and the Rockets shot 48.8% from the field. Aaron Holiday also chipped in 6 of his 11 points in the 4th quarter.

Defensively, the Rockets held the Clippers to 106 points on Sunday, giving up 28 points in the 1st quarter and 31 in the 3rd, but they tightened up in the 2nd and 4th, allowing just 24 and 23 points, respectively.

Houston did a solid job defending the three, as the Clippers shot just 32% from deep, hitting 11 threes. The Rockets also sent the Clippers to the line 16 times, where they made 13 free throws. Houston finished with 38 defensive rebounds, giving up seven offensive boards, and added four steals and four blocks.

Betting Trends

• In their last five games away from home, the Warriors have a straight-up record of 1-4 while going 1-4 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 105 points per game in these contests.
• Across their last five home contests, Houston has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 3-2. Their overall mark in these games was 3-2 while averaging 112 points per game.
• In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Warriors have a straight-up record of 1-4 and an ATS mark of 3-2.
• As the betting favorite, the Rockets have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight-up record was 2-1.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

With a trip to Vegas on the line, the Rockets are favored by -2 over the Warriors. These two teams just played back on December 5th, with the Warriors winning by six at home. However, I’m expecting the Rockets to bring some big-time intensity tonight, as this young group will be looking to punch their ticket to Vegas this weekend. I’m going with the Rockets to win and cover at -2.