Warriors vs. Rockets Analysis & Predictions

Golden State Warriors (7-9 SU, 6-10-0 ATS) vs. Houston Rockets (3-13 SU, 6-8-2 ATS)
When: Sunday, November 20th, 7:00 PM (ET)
Where: Toyota Center, TX, Houston
TV: NBCS

Point Spread: GS -10.0/ HOU +10
Total: 232.5
Money Line: Golden State Warriors -482/ +357

Notable Injuries

Warriors

• Andre Iguodala (Out) Injury Management

Rockets

• Jae’Sean Tate (Out) Ankle
• Kevin Porter Jr. (Doubtful) Back
• Bruno Fernando (Out) Knee
• Alperen Sengün (Questionable) Groin

Recent Form

So far, the Warriors have put together an overall record of 7-9 while going 6-10-0 vs. the spread. In the team’s past three games, their overall mark sits at 2-1. Golden State is 2-1 vs. the spread in these matchups.

In their previous game, the Warriors took down the Knicks by a score of 111-101. Not only did they come away with a straight-up win, but they also covered the spread as 7-point favorites. Golden State was able to take care of business in the second half of this game, as they didn’t allow the Knicks to cut into their 11-point halftime lead. In the win, Stephen Curry led the team in scoring with 24 points on a field goal percentage of 47.4%.

The Rockets come into today’s matchup with an overall record of 3-13. So far, the team has gone 6-8-2 against the spread. Across the team’s previous three games, they have gone 1-2 straight-up and 1-2 vs. the spread.

Houston is trying to bounce back from a 99-91 loss to the Pacers. Going into this game, the team was a 5-point underdog on the spread, giving them an ATS loss. Houston let an opportunity for a win slip home as they held the lead going into the 2nd half of action. In the loss, Eric Gordon led the team in scoring with 24 points on a field goal percentage of 47.1%.

The Historicals

Looking back to last season, the Warriors and Rockets met up for games, with Golden State winning the series 3-0. A large part of the team’s overall success vs. Houston was their ability to win on the road, as they were above .500 away from home in the series. Similar to their season-long average, the Warriors averaged 115.67 points per game vs the Rockets. Just like the Warriors, the Rockets maintained their usual level of scoring in head-to-head matchups, averaging 106.0 points per game vs. Golden State. Across the previous five meetings between the teams, the Warriors have an average scoring margin of +15 points per game, leading to an ATS mark of 3-1-1. Golden State and Houston averaged a combined 219 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

For the season, the Golden State offense is the 4th ranked unit in the NBA, at 117.1 points per contest. When looking at the Warriors’ pace of play, they tend to play an up-tempo style of basketball. So far, the team is in the upper half of the NBA in possessions per game, averaging 102.6. So far, the team has been able to rank well on offense, even though their up-tempo style of play has not translated into inside scoring. Currently, Golden State is just 22nd in 2-point field goal makes per game.

Against the Rockets, the Warriors will look to continue their strong defensive play. For the year, they are the 3rd ranked unit at 105.46 points per game.

This season, the Warriors’ offense has primarily worked through Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins, who are 1st and 2nd on the team in scoring. In his 15 games, Curry is 3rd in the NBA at 32.2 points per game. So far, he and Wiggins have accounted for 39% of the team’s field goal attempts while combining to average 50.33 points per contest. In addition to sitting 2nd on the team in scoring, Andrew Wiggins is grabbing 5.6 rebounds for Golden State to go along with 2.27 assists.

The Rockets come into today’s game as the 29th-ranked scoring offense at 107.9 points per game. Coming into today’s game, the Rockets will be looking to improve their 3-point shooting numbers, as they are averaging just 12.1 made 3’s per game. One area of the team’s offense that has been effective is their ability to get to the free-throw line. So far, they are ranked 8th, with an average of 19.5 made free throws per game.

Currently, the Rockets defense is ranked 30th in points allowed. So far, opposing teams are averaging 118.2 points per game vs. the unit.

A key injury to note in this game is the likely absence of the Rockets’ 2nd leading scorer, Kevin Porter Jr. In his 15 games, Porter Jr. is averaging 19.07 points per game while dishing out 5.8 assists and grabbing 6.13 rebounds. If he is unable to take the floor, the team will be looking for even more production out of Jalen Green, who leads the team and is 33rd in the NBA at 21.31 points per contest. He has connected on 41.9% of his field goal attempts for the season while taking 19.8% of overall shots.

Betting Trends

• Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last seven Sunday games.
• Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up win.
• Rockets are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Rockets are 17-35 ATS in their last 52 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

I’m still suspicious that the Rockets are tanking with hopes of getting the number one pick. Even if they weren’t, they can’t score enough to hang with Golden State. While we don’t base plays on public consensus, it gives us even more confidence that the general betting public are siding with the underdog Rockets, which is a tell-tale sign of a sucker bet. We’re laying the points with the Warriors!