Warriors vs. Kings Predictions ATS

Golden State Warriors (5-7 SU, 4-8-0 ATS) vs. Sacramento Kings (5-6 SU, 7-3-1 ATS)
When: Sunday, November 13th, 9:00 PM (ET)
Where: Golden 1 Center, CA, Sacramento
TV: NBCS

Point Spread: GS -4.0/ SAC +4
Total: 234.5
Money Line: Golden State Warriors -177/ +147

Notable Injuries

Warriors

• Andre Iguodala (Out) Injury Management

Kings

Recent Form

So far, the Warriors have put together an overall record of 5-7, while going 4-8-0 vs the spread. Across the Warriors 2 game win streak, they have an average scoring margin of 4.0 points per game.

The Warriors will look to keep things rolling, as they previously beat the Cavaliers by a score of 106-101. Heading into the game, they were 2 point favorites on the spread, giving them an ATS win. Even though Golden State did not immediately put a dent in their halftime deficit as they trailed by 3 points heading into 4th, they still managed to come out on top. In the win, Stephen Curry led the team in scoring with 40 points on a field goal percentage of 65.2%.

So far, the Kings have put together an overall record of 5-6, while going 7-3-1 vs the spread. In today’s game, Sacramento will look to extend their 2 game winning streak. Over this stretch, they have an average scoring margin of 6.5 points.

In their previous game, the Kings took down the Lakers by a score of 120-114. Not only did they come away with a straight-up win, but they also covered the spread as 3-point favorites. Sacramento went on to win the game, despite trailing by 4 going into halftime. Leading the team in scoring was De’Aaron Fox, as he contributed 32 points while hitting 68.4% of his shots.

The Historicals

Not only did the Warriors finish with an above .500 record on the road in last year’s head-to-head matchup vs Sacramento, but they also won over half of their games as the road team. In last year’s head-to-head meetings, the Warriors averaged 116.75 points per game vs Sacramento, which was an increase over their season-long average. However, the Kings actually averaged fewer points per game than their season-long mark. Across their head-to-head matchups with Golden State, the team averaged 102.25 points per game. When looking at how these teams have performed vs the spread in recent matchups, the Kings have an ATS mark of 3-2. Yet, the Warriors have averaged more points per game in these contests, at 118, compared to Sacramento at 118. Over the course of these games, they averaged 226 points per game, leading a 2-3 over-under record.

Analysis

Heading into play, the Warriors’ offense is rated 8th in the league in scoring, averaging 8th points per contest. So far, Golden State is averaging 102.5 possessions per game, making them one of the more up-tempo teams in the league. Golden State has been effective on offense due to the fact that they not only play an up-tempo style but they have one of the best effective field goal percentages in the league at 55.8%.

Against the Kings, the Warriors will look to continue their strong defensive play. For the year, they are the 3rd ranked unit at 105.46 points per game.

This season, the Warriors’ offense has primarily worked through Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins, who are 1st and 2nd on the team in scoring. In his 11 games, Curry is 2nd in the NBA at 33.27 points per game. So far, him and Wiggins have accounted for 40.0% of the team’s field goal attempts while combining to average 51.63 points per contest. In addition to sitting 2nd on the team in scoring, Andrew Wiggins is grabbing 6.09 rebounds for Golden State to go along with 2.55 assists.

Coming into today’s action, Sacramento is averaging 116.3 points per contest. This figure places them 7th in the league. So far, Sacramento is averaging 100.9 possessions per game, making them one of the more up-tempo teams in the league. Sacramento has been effective on offense due to the fact that they not only play an up-tempo style but they have one of the best effective field goal percentages in the league at 56.3%.

Against the Warriors, the Kings will need a stronger defensive effort as they are ranked just 29th in points allowed.

Point-Guard De’Aaron Fox currently leads the Warriors at 25.9 points per game. For the season, he is 26th in the NBA in usage rate and has taken 20.7% of the team’s field goal attempts. In addition to his scoring, Fox is averaging 5.2 boards and 5.8 assists per contest. In today’s game, he is facing off against the NBA’s 16th-ranked defense at defending point-guards. Domantas Sabonis enters the game, sitting second on the team in scoring. Through 11 games, he is averaging 17.18 and is 42nd in the league in player efficiency rating.

Betting Trends

• Warriors are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
• Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
• Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The market has yet to adjust that the Kings are an above-average team this season. They hung close with the Warriors at Oracle earlier and are now +4.5 LIVE home underdogs! I’m betting Sac-Town with confidence!