Warriors vs. Bucks Betting Preview & Pick ATS

Golden State Warriors (14-13 SU, 13-14-0 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (19-7 SU, 14-10-2 ATS)
When: Tuesday, December 13th, 7:30 PM (ET)
Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee
TV: TNT

Point Spread: GS +4.5/ MIL -4.5
Total: 227.5
Money Line: Golden State Warriors +154/ -189

Notable Injuries

Warriors

• Draymond Green (Probable) Ankle
• Andre Iguodala (Out) Hip
• Andrew Wiggins (Questionable) Adductor

Bucks

• Jrue Holiday (Questionable) Illness
• Khris Middleton (Probable) Ankle
• Wesley Matthews (Out) Health Protocols
• Joe Ingles (Out) ACL

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Golden State is 14-13 overall. When taking to the road, Golden State has a mark of 2-11 and a win percentage of 15.0%. Currently, the team is 9th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 13-14-0 vs. the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs. the spread, they are 3-2 in their past five games and 4-1 ATS. Over their past ten games, they are 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS.

After their win against the Celtics, Golden State will be looking to continue their momentum. Klay Thompson had a big game, scoring 34 points to help lead the team to victory. As 2-point underdogs on the spread, the Warriors were able to come away with an ATS win

Heading into the game, Milwaukee is 19-7 overall. When playing at home, Milwaukee has a mark of 12-3 and a win percentage of 80%. Currently, the team is 2nd in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 14-10-2 vs. the spread. In Milwaukee’s last five games, the Bucks have a straight-up record of 4-1 while going 2-2-1 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 7-3 and 4-4-2 ATS.

In their most recent matchup, the Rockets defeated Milwaukee with a score of 97-92. Jrue Holiday scored the most points for the team with 25, but it was not enough to earn the win. The Bucks were 10 points ahead going into the game.

The Historicals

In last season’s head-to-head matchups, the teams split the season series. In these games, each team won on their home floor. Similar to their season-long average, the Warriors averaged 110.5 points per game vs. the Bucks. Just like the Warriors, the Bucks maintained their usual level of scoring in head-to-head matchups, averaging 113.5 points per game vs. Golden State. When looking at how these teams have performed vs. the spread in recent matchups, the Warriors have an ATS mark of 3-2. Yet, the Bucks have averaged more points per game in these contests, at 118 compared to Milwaukee at 108. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 2-3. Combined, they averaged 226 points in these games.

Analysis

This season, Golden State is among the league leaders in scoring, averaging 117.6 points per game. So far, the Warriors are also one of the more up-tempo teams in the league, sitting at 102.3 possessions per game. Golden State’s offensive attack has benefited from some hot shooting from outside. Not only are they among the league leaders in 3-pointers attempted per game, but they are 6th in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.6%. Defensively, the Warriors have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.46 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 33.92%.

Coming into today’s game, Stephen Curry is the leading scorer for Golden State at 30.0 points per game. This season, Curry has a field goal percentage of 50.2%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Jordan Poole, at 17.8 points per contest.

This year, the Milwaukee offense is not only near the NBA average in points at 112.0 points per game, but they are also playing at a pace similar to the league average. So far, the Bucks are ranked 18th in possessions per contest. The three-point shot has been a big part of Milwaukee’s offensive gameplan, as they are ranked 7th in 3-point attempts per game. So far, they have connected on 35.0% of their looks from the outside. On defense, the Bucks allow an average of 112.13 points per game, placing them 19th in the league. So far, opposing teams are hitting 35.73% of their looks from deep vs. Milwaukee.

Heading into this matchup, Milwaukee is in jeopardy of not having Jrue Holiday in the lineup as he is questionable. This season, he is the team’s second-leading scorer at 19.1 points per game. So far, Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the team in scoring and is averaging 31 points per contest.

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Betting Trends

• Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
• Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Bucks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• Bucks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Warriors are starting to play better ball and have a legit shot of winning straight up! I’m betting the GSW +4.5!