Warriors vs. Blazers Spread Pick & Analysis 4/9/23

  Golden State Warriors (43-38 SU, 38-42-1 ATS) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (33-48 SU, 40-41-0 ATS)

When: Sunday, April 9th, 3:30 PM (ET)

Where: Moda Center, OR, Portland

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: GSW -16.5/Por +16.5 (Why lay -110 when you can lay only -105 at BAS?)

Total: 233

Money Line: Golden State Warriors -1920/+969

Notable Injuries

Warriors

• Stephen Curry (Probable) Hip
• Andre Iguodala (Out) Wrist
• Andrew Wiggins (Out) Conditioning
• Jonathan Kuminga (Probable) Toe
• Ryan Rollins (Out) Foot

Trail Blazers

• Damian Lillard (Out) Calf
• Jerami Grant (Out) Quad
• Jusuf Nurkic (Out) Knee
• Justise Winslow (Out) Ankle
• Anfernee Simons (Out) Foot
• Drew Eubanks (Out) Ankle
• Cam Reddish (Out) Back
• Matisse Thybulle (Out) Knee
• Nassir Little (Out) Ankle
• Keon Johnson (Out) Finger
• Ibou Badji (Out) Knee

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Golden State is 43-38 overall. When taking to the road, Golden State has a mark of 10-30 and a win percentage of 25%. Currently, the team is 6th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 38-42-1 vs the spread. In their matchup against Portland, the Golden State Warriors have won 2 straight games and will look to push that mark to 3 in a row.

In their previous game, the Golden State team emerged victorious against the Kings, winning by a margin of 11 points as predicted. Klay Thompson shone for the Warriors, scoring 29 points on a shooting percentage of 57.9%. The Warriors not only won the game but also successfully covered the spread.

Heading into the game, Portland is 33-48 overall. When playing at home, Portland has a mark of 17-23 and a win percentage of 42%. Currently, the team is 13th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 40-41-0 vs the spread. The Trail Blazers need a win in today’s matchup vs Golden State to avoid their 4th straight loss.

In their most recent matchup, the Clippers defeated Portland with a score of 136-125. Kevin Knox II scored the most points for the team with 30, but it was not enough to earn the win. The Trail Blazers were 16 points ahead going into the game.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Warriors picked up the win 118-112 win over the Trail Blazers. Heading into the game, Golden State was the 1.5-point underdogs, giving them an ATS win. So far this season, the Warriors have a record of 2-1 vs the Trail Blazers. Over the last 5 head to head meetings, the Warriors have averaged 119 points per game compared to 106 for Portland. This has led to an ATS record of 3-2 for Golden State. In these contests, they averaged a combined 225 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 1-3-1.

Analysis

This season, Golden State is among the league leaders in scoring, averaging 118.5 points per game. So far, the Warriors are also one of the more up-tempo teams in the league, sitting at 101.6 possessions per game. The Warriors have been able to put together a strong offensive attack despite sitting just 2nd in 3-point shooting percentage. Overall, they are among the league leaders in attempts at 43.1 attempts per game. Defensively, the Warriors have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.46 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 33.92%.

Jordan Poole is the top scorer for the Warriors, with an average of 20.4 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 42.8%. Stephen Curry is the team’s second-leading scorer, averaging 29.5 points per game.

This season, the Trail Blazers’ offense is averaging 113.6 points per game, which is 18th in the NBA. In terms of pace, Portland has been playing at one of the slower tempo’s in the league, averaging just 97.9 possessions per game. Portland’s offensive attack has benefited from some hot shooting from outside. Not only are they among the league leaders in 3-pointers attempted per game, but they are 12th in 3-point shooting percentage at 36.6%. Defense has been a struggle for Portland, as they are currently allowing 115.11 points per game. The team’s 3-point shooting defense has been a problem this year. So far, opposing offenses have hit 36.95% of their looks from the outside.

Be sure to take note of the fact that both Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons are out for today’s game for the Trail Blazers. This year, Lillard is averaging 32.2 points per game, while Simons is at 21.1.

Betting Trends

• The Warriors are 17-38-1 ATS in their last 56 road games.
• The Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
• The Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• The Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Portland had to play yesterday and will be playing their third game in four nights to end the season. The game is earlier than usual too, with tip at 12:30PM local time. An argument can be made that the Blazers won’t have fatigue, as the players getting minutes are all reserves. On the other hand, these guys aren’t used to big minutes, so many fatigue could be a factor. Furthermore, I feel like this spread should be closer to 20. I feel that oddsmakers took it easy on this spread to dupe bettors in. In the general public’s eye (squares), the Blazers did a fairly good job hanging with the Clippers last night. They shot WAY over their head though, and the Clippers looked like a team that didn’t take thems seriously. This won’t happen with the Warriors. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Golden State win this game for 40. I’m laying the wood with G.S. at -16.5. Bet your NBA playoffs picks for FREE by scoring a 100% bonus (or two!) by using one of our sportsbook bonus promo codes!