Warriors vs. Rockets Prediction: Where the Value Lies on Sunday

Golden State Warriors (48-34 SU, 42-39 ATS) vs. Houston Rockets (52-30 SU, 43-39 ATS)

When: Sunday, April 20th, 9:30 PM (ET)

Where: Toyota Center, TX, Houston

TV: TNT

Point Spread: GS +1/Hou -1

Total: 213

Money Line: Golden State Warriors -102/-118

Notable Injuries

Warriors

• No Injuries Reported

Rockets

• Jock Landale (Out) Knee
• Jae’Sean Tate (Out) Ankle

At 9:30 ET, the Houston Rockets (-118) will host the Golden State Warriors (-102) in a Western Conference matchup. The Rockets are currently favored by 1 point, and the over/under line is set at 213.

Golden State is 48-34 and 7th in the West, while Houston is 52-30 and 2nd in the West. The Rockets are on a 3-game losing streak.

Recent Form

The Warriors improved to 48-34 on the season with a 121-116 win over the Grizzlies on Tuesday. Playing at home, Golden State was favored by 6.5 points but didn’t cover the spread. The total score of 237 points exceeded the over/under line of 226.5 by 10.5 points.

Golden State went on an 11-0 run early, turning a 16-13 deficit into a 24-16 lead. They led 67-55 at halftime but saw their lead shrink after Memphis outscored them 36-27 in the 3rd quarter. The Warriors held on in the 4th, edging the Grizzlies 27-25 to close out the game.

The Rockets fell to 52-30 on the season after a 126-111 home loss to the Nuggets on Sunday. Houston, who entered the game as +6.5 point underdogs, failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game ended at 237, just over the 234.5-point line.

Houston got off to a rough start, trailing 36-23 after the 1st quarter. They played Denver even in the 2nd quarter, but a 37-19 3rd quarter put them in a 102-71 hole. The Rockets finished strong, outscoring the Nuggets 40-24 in the 4th quarter.

The Historicals

The level of competition has been tight in the five most recent games between the Warriors and Rockets, with just 2 points per game separating the teams. Golden State has the ATS edge in this span at 4-1. In these contests, they averaged a combined 204 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Analysis

Jimmy Butler and Stephen Curry combined for 75 points in the Warriors’ 121-116 win over the Grizzlies. Butler led the way with 38 points, shooting 60% from the field, while Curry added 37 points, hitting six threes at 46.2% efficiency.

Butler scored 13 points in the 3rd quarter, while Curry put up 15 in the 4th. The Warriors hit 15 threes, shooting 34.9% from deep and 45.9% overall.

Defensively, the Warriors struggled in the 3rd quarter, giving up 36 points, but they tightened up in the 4th, allowing just 25 points to help secure the win. Overall, they allowed 116 points on 48% shooting from the Grizzlies.

Golden State did a good job limiting Memphis from beyond the arc, giving up only 12 threes, though the Grizzlies shot 46% from deep. The Warriors also sent Memphis to the line 23 times, where they made 20 free throws. The Warriors finished with 13 steals and three blocks.

Amen Thompson and Fred VanVleet each scored 15 points in the Rockets’ 126-111 loss to the Nuggets, with Thompson shooting 66.7% from the field. VanVleet made three three-pointers, shooting 37.5% from beyond the arc, while Alperen Şengün contributed 14 points and five rebounds.

As a team, the Rockets shot 45% from the field and made 12 threes at a 35.3% clip. Jock Landale scored all 11 of his points in the 4th quarter, while VanVleet had 12 of his 15 in the 2nd quarter. Thompson added 8 points in the 2nd, with 6 more in the 1st.

The Rockets struggled defensively against the Nuggets, allowing 126 points on 51% shooting. Houston gave up 36 points in the 1st quarter and 37 in the 3rd, though they tightened up in the 4th, allowing just 24 points.

From beyond the arc, the Rockets held the Nuggets to 10 threes on 34% shooting. Denver went to the line 31 times, making 26 free throws. Houston finished with 29 defensive rebounds while giving up 11 offensive boards.

Betting Trends

• The Warriors are 3-0 ATS in their three last road games and 3-0 straight-up.
• Through their last five home games, Houston has an ATS record of just 2-3. However, their overall record was 2-3 while averaging 115 points per game.
• The last ten games that Golden State was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 6-4 while going 5-5 straight up.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Rockets have a straight up record of 9-1. Their record vs the spread in these games was 4-6.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Out of all the games on Sunday, this Warriors and Rockets game figures to be the most competitive. This is reflected in the line sitting at -1 in favor of the Rockets. But I think Golden State’s playoff experience comes through, and they take game 1 of this series. I have the Warriors on the money line.