Warriors at Nuggets: Point Spread Prediction for Tuesday Night

Golden State Warriors (12-7 SU, 11-8 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (10-8 SU, 7-10 ATS)

When: Tuesday, December 3rd, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver

TV: TNT

Point Spread: GS +5/Den -5

Total: 239.5

Money Line: Golden State Warriors +164/-196

Notable Injuries

Warriors

• Draymond Green (Doubtful) Calf
• Stephen Curry (Probable) Knee
• De’Anthony Melton (Out) ACL

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Probable) Calf
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee
• Peyton Watson (Probable) Adductor
• DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles

At 10:00 ET on TNT, the Nuggets (-196) will host the Warriors (+164) in a Western Conference matchup. Denver is favored by 5 points, and the over/under line is 239.5.

Golden State (12-7) is currently on a 4-game losing streak and is 4th in the Western Conference. Denver (10-8) is 9th in the West and 2nd in the Northwest Division.

Recent Form

The Warriors fell to 12-7 on the season after a 113-105 road loss to the Suns on Saturday. Golden State entered the game as +1.5 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The game’s total of 218 points came in well below the 234.5-point O/U line.

Golden State struggled early, trailing 66-49 at halftime after being outscored 31-20 in the 2nd quarter. They responded with a strong 3rd quarter, holding Phoenix to 19 points and cutting the deficit to 85-78. However, a 10-0 run by the Suns in the 4th quarter put the game out of reach.

Denver fell to 10-8 on the season after a 126-122 road loss to the Clippers on Sunday. The Nuggets, who were favored by 3 points, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The game’s total score of 248 points exceeded the O/U line of 226 by 22 points.

Denver went on an 11-0 run, extending their lead from 43-37 to 54-37. However, the Clippers fought back, and the Nuggets couldn’t hold on, losing the 4th quarter 34-32 after trailing 92-90 going into the final period.

The Historicals

Across the last five matchups between the teams, Golden State has gone 3-2 vs the spread. However, the Nuggets actually have a positive scoring margin in these games at +6 points per game. A combined average of 228 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Analysis

In their 113-105 loss to the Suns, the Warriors shot just 41.3% from the field, with Stephen Curry leading the way at 23 points despite hitting only 38.1% of his shots. Curry also made three threes at a 30% clip, while Andrew Wiggins added 18 points, connecting on four threes at 44.4%.

Golden State made 14 threes as a team, shooting 35% from beyond the arc. Curry scored 15 of his points in the 3rd quarter, while Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski each added 8 points in the 4th.

The Warriors struggled defensively in the 1st and 2nd quarters, giving up 35 and 31 points, respectively, but they tightened up in the 3rd, allowing just 19 points. However, they couldn’t contain the Suns in the 4th, where they gave up 28 points, leading to a 113-105 loss.

Golden State allowed Phoenix to shoot 48% from the field, including 51% from beyond the arc, where the Suns hit 18 threes. The Warriors sent the Suns to the line 22 times, where they made 19 free throws. Defensively, the Warriors recorded eight steals and five blocks.

Nikola Jokic led the Nuggets with 28 points, 14 rebounds, and 11 assists in their 126-122 loss to the Clippers, scoring 15 of his points in the first quarter. Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray each added 18 points, with Porter shooting 72.7% from the field.

As a team, Denver shot 58% overall and 41.7% from three-point range, hitting ten threes. Julian Strawther contributed 15 points, with eight coming in the 4th quarter.

The Nuggets gave up 126 points to the Clippers on Sunday, allowing 32 points in the 1st quarter and 34 in the 4th. Denver’s defense allowed 33 points in the 3rd quarter, with their best defensive effort coming in the 2nd, where they gave up 27 points.

Denver struggled to defend the three-point line, as the Clippers hit 18 threes on 46% shooting. The Nuggets put the Clippers on the free-throw line 27 times, where they converted 22 attempts. Denver finished with seven steals and three blocks in the game.

Betting Trends

• Through their last three road games, Golden State has an ATS record of just 0-3. However, their overall record was 1-2 while averaging 103 points per game.
• When looking at their past three matchups at home, Denver has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 123 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Warriors have a straight-up record of 6-4. Their record vs the spread in these games was 7-3.
• Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Nuggets have a straight-up record of 6-4. But, their mark vs the spread was just 3-6-1.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Denver heads into Tuesday night’s matchup with Golden State favored by -5 points. Draymond Green is always important to the Warriors, but his absence is going to really be magnified vs Jokic and the Nuggets. Not only that, but Denver is at home in this one and should roll to a win and cover this number.