Utah Jazz vs. Milwaukee Bucks Prediction ATS 10/31/21

Utah Jazz (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS)
When: Sunday October 31 2021, 07:00 PM (ET)
Where: Fiserv Forum: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin

Point Spread: UTA +1.0 / MIL -1 Opened at ( MIL -1 )
Total: 224.0 (Opened at 224.5 )
Money Line: Utah -115/ Milwaukee -115
Power Rating: Jazz -4
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Probable Starting Lineups

Jazz: PG Mike Conley, SG Donovan Mitchell, SF Bojan Bogdanovic, PF Royce O’Neale, C Rudy Gobert
Bucks: PG George Hill, SG Grayson Allen, SF Khris Middleton, PF Thanasis Antetokounmpo, C Giannis Antetokounmpo

Jazz Rudy Gay: foot (QUESTIONABLE) Miye Oni: illness (QUESTIONABLE)

Key Injuries

Bucks Donte DiVincenzo: foot (OUT) Jrue Holiday: ankle (DOUBTFUL) Brook Lopez: back (DOUBTFUL) Bobby Portis: conditioning (OUT)

Recent Form

The Utah Jazz enter today’s game, having won four of their past five games. When playing away from home, the Jazz are an above .500 team, having gone 2-1.

Through 5 games, Utah has an overall record of 4-1, ranking 1st in the Western Conference. Among NBA teams, they have played the 25th toughest schedule. As they get set to take on the Bucks, the Jazz look to continue paying well vs. Eastern Conference opponents. So far, they have an in-conference record of 4-0

For bettors, taking the Utah Jazz to cover the spread has been a winning bet as they cover the spread in 80.00%% of their games. Their season-long plus-minus against the spread is 4.8.

On offense, the team’s leading scorer is SG Donovan Mitchell. So far, Mitchell is averaging 22.0 points per game. This output places him 7th in his position group.

The Jazz’s best three-point shooter has been Donovan Mitchell, connecting on 2.8 shots from downtown per game. Rudy Gobert has been in charge of cleaning up the glass, hauling in 18.0 boards per game. 1st among centers.

The Milwaukee bucks head into this matchup, having lost two straight games. In their past six games, Milwaukee has played at a .500 rate going 3-3. As of today, they are 7th in the Eastern Conference. Among NBA teams, they have played the 6th toughest schedule

So far, the Bucks have played three games vs. Western Conference opponents, going 1-2. The Bucks haven’t provided an edge for bettors, as they are covering the spread in 50% of their games. Through six games, they have a -5.4 plus-minus vs. the spread.

Offensively, they are led by Giannis Antetokounmpo who is in search of his third MVP. To start the year, Antetokounmpo is averaging 27.67 points per game. 7th best among power forwards. The Greek Freak is also Milwaukee’s top rebounder, grabbing 11.83 boards per game.

The team’s newest addition, Grayson Allen, is averaging three-pointers per game. Best on the team

An Eye On Pace

The Utah Jazz and the Milwaukee Bucks prefer to play at different speeds. Milwaukee hopes to maximize their scoring chances with as many possessions as possible, whereas the Jazz hopes to slow the game down.

When Utah faces off with fast-paced teams, they bring opponents down their level. On average, they win 70% of these contents. In the cases Milwaukee plays slow-paced teams, they play to the level of their competition. This change in style affects their win percentage, which falls to 61%.

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Offensive Edge

Both Utah and Milwaukee are among the league leaders in offensive efficiency. When the Jazz play defenses similar to the Bucks, they score nine more points than expected. They win these games with a MOV of 3 points.

Milwaukee has the slight offensive advantage, averaging 10 points above expectation vs. comparable opponents. However, they win just 48% of the time.

Which Team’s Defense Is Up To The Task?

Utah enters this game with a better chance at slowing down the Bucks. Historically, the Jazz have limited top-rated offenses to three points per possession below their usual output. They walk away victorious 67% of the time

The Historicals

Going back to last season, the Bucks and Jazz split their two games. Each team picked up their win on their opponent’s home court. Between the two games, Utah had a higher cumulative score at 240 to Milwaukee’s 222. Neither game was particularly close, with Utah having the largest margin of victory. (128-97).

How the Public is Betting the Jazz vs. Bucks

66% are betting the Jazz against the spread.
57% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 223.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

The Jazz are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games. The total has gone under in Milwaukee’s last five home games. The Bucks are 19-3 in their past 22 home games.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

The Bucks have dropped two straight games at home and will be looking to right the ship. Both teams are coming off back-to-back games. However, given that the Jazz played in Chicago, the travel demands shouldn’t take a tremendous toll.

In a matchup of two of the best offensive teams in the league, this game could come down to defensive effort. I like the Bucks to come out motivated as they will cover the spread.

Prop Bets Worth Wagering

I expect the Bucks to be careful with the workload of Giannis Antetokounmpo in back-to-back games. With his line set at 28.5, I will be taking him to finish below this number.

Without Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee has struggled to slow down opposing point guards. Look for Mike Conley to score above his line of 13.5 points.