Toronto Raptors (20-17) +9, 182 at Detroit Pistons (28-10), 7:30 pm Eastern Tuesday, NBA
by Zman of Predictem.com
One of the best teams in the league looks to right its ship after some recent turbulence when the Detroit Pistons host the Toronto Raptors Tuesday night.
NBA Sportsbooks have Detroit listed as nine-point home favorites for Tuesday’s game, with a total of 182. Also, the Pistons are listed at around -525 on various Vegas moneylines, with the Raptors getting around +375 as road underdogs.
After beating Portland Sunday in double-overtime 116-109, Toronto has won three games in a row. So going into Tuesday’s play, the Raptors sit in second place in the Atlantic Division, 10 games back of the first-place Boston Celtics.
Detroit, on the other hand, is coming off its most embarrassing outing of this season, an 89-65 loss at New York in which they shot 31% from the field. And the Pistons have lost three of their last five games. Still, Detroit leads the Central Division by 8 games over the second-place Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Pistons took two of three games from Toronto last season, and beat the Raptors in the first meeting between these two teams this season 101-85 back on Jan. 4 north of the border. Detroit outrebounded Toronto that night 47-36, shot 50% both from the field and from beyond the arc, and held the Raps to 41% from the floor. The score was just 69-64 after three quarters, but the Pistons pulled away late, and the game went over its total of 184 by a single basket in garbage time.
The o/u is 1-3 over those last four games in this series, which are averaging 183 total points.
The Raptors are a respectable 20-17 against the spread so far this season, 10-9 straight up and 10-8-1 vs. the numbers on the road. Meanwhile, the Pistons are a profitable 24-13 ATS this season, 13-3 SU and 11-5 vs. the numbers at home.
Also, Detroit has beaten Toronto eight games in a row in the Motor City.
Statistically speaking, the Raptors rank 13th in the league in per-game point differential at +1.8, 15th in FG shooting at 45%, 1st in 3-point shooting at 41%, 2nd in FT shooting at 80%, 13th in FG defense at 45% but just 23rd in rebounding at -1.8 per game.
On the other side of this match-up, the Pistons rank 2nd in point differential at +8.5 per game, 9th in FG shooting at 46%, 11th in long-range marksmanship at 36%, 8th from the stripe at 77%, 3rd in FG defense at 44% and 11th in rebounding at +1.1 per game.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com ranks Detroit 2nd at 98.5, Toronto 12th at 92.4. The current Sagarin home-court advantage is 2.7.
The totals are 18-19 in Raptors games this season, which are averaging 193 total points, while the o/u is 16-22 in Pistons games, which are averaging 188 points.
Zman’s Pick: Take the Pistons minus the points.