Timberwolves vs. Warriors Prediction ATS 1/27/22

Minnesota Timberwolves (24-23 SU, 24-23-0 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (35-13 SU, 26-19-3 ATS)

When: Thursday, January 27th, 2022, 10:00 pm (ET)

Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

TV: TNT

Point Spread: MIN +6/GSW -6 (Opened at 6 at WagerWeb – Did you know… these guys offer 20 point basketball teasers?)

Total: 228 (Opened at 228)

Money Line: MIN +190/GSW -250

Power Rating: GSW -7

Probable Starting Lineups

Minnesota Timberwolves: PG Patrick Beverley, SG D’Angelo Russell, SF Anthony Edwards, PF Jarred Vanderbilt, C Karl-Anthony Towns

Golden State Warriors: PG Steph Curry, SG Klay Thompson, SF Andrew Wiggins, PF Otto Porter, C Kevon Looney

Key Injuries

Minnesota Timberwolves: G Jaylen Nowell *Questionable* (Tailbone), G Patrick Beverley *Questionable* (Ankle)

Golden State Warriors: F Andre Iguodala *Questionable* (Hip), F Draymond Green *Out* (Calf), C James Wiseman *Out* (Knee)

Recent Form

The Minnesota Timberwolves come into this game with a 24-23 record and sit 7th in the Western Conference. The Timberwolves have an admirable 8-4 record in January, which includes a two-win streak. After getting back above a .500 record with their most recent win, the Timberwolves may fall back below that benchmark as they face the Warriors and Suns in their next two games. If they can ride the offensive surge they’ve shown the last few weeks; they may be able to steal one if not both games. Over their last three games, Minnesota leads the NBA with a 122.3 PPG average. The impressive offensive output is due to them being one of the fastest-paced teams as they attempt 91.4 field goals per game, which is the 4th most in the league. Another area that has led to their high-scoring games is them leaning heavily on the three-point shot, as they lead the NBA with 41.7 attempts from range per game. Facing the Warriors, who are the second-best team at defending the three-point shot, the Timberwolves will have to push the pace even more in this game to allow themselves more scoring opportunities. The Timberwolves are led in scoring by Karl-Anthony Towns, who is averaging 24.1 PPG this season. The Minnesota offense sits 9th as a team, averaging 111.0 PPG. Defensively, they sit 18th as they allow 109.9 PPG.

The Golden State Warriors head into this matchup with a 35-13 record and are 2nd in the Western Conference standings. After a slow start to January, the Warriors seem to be finding their groove again as they come in winners of three straight and four of their last five. Their last time on the floor appeared to be the team’s “we’re back” statement game, as they dropped 130 points on a good Dallas defense while holding them to just 92 points. With the Warriors at home once again in this game, controlling the pace as they usually do at home will be a key factor against a Timberwolves team that doesn’t shoot the ball well and banks on games coming to a 4th quarter shootout. Golden State has found success recently by doing the exact opposite to teams by slowing down the pace and taking high percentage shots as they’ve shot 48.4% from the floor in their last three games. The Warriors are led in scoring by Steph Curry, who is averaging 25.8 PPG this season. After being among the top teams for the first few months, the Warriors have fallen to the 12th best scoring offense, averaging 109.9 PPG. Defensively, they’ve managed to hold onto the number one spot, giving up just 101.6 PPG.

Timberwolves on the Road

The Timberwolves currently hold an 11-13 road record on the season and find themselves in game two of their three-game road trip. A big reason for their sub-par road record is the lack of defense they play. As mentioned above, the Timberwolves thrive on fast-paced games that end in a dramatic fashion. Unfortunately, with that mindset comes a high number of points given up. On the road, Minnesota allows 47.0% shooting from the field and 114.9 PPG, which is a full 10 points more than they allow at home. Against a Warriors team that has two of the best shooters to ever take the floor on a team full of young talent, these are two stats that are less than ideal. From a betting perspective, this means standing in Minnesota’s corner has not played out well this season. The Timberwolves are 12-11-1 ATS on the road, which is admirable, but recently they’ve gone cold, going 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. Playing on short rest has also not been a strong suit for this team this year as they are 0-4 ATS when playing on just one day of rest. The only shot I see for Minnesota to win this game is by forcing a high-scoring affair, but given that the Warriors appear to be back in the form they were to start the season, I don’t see that being the case.

Warriors at Home

The Warriors come into this game with an impressive 22-4 home record, which is the best in the NBA. Getting their groove back over the last week has shown us that it was just a matter of time before they got rolling with Klay in the lineup. Though winning is the most important for the Warriors, their ability to cover has made bettors hesitant to ride with them. The Warriors are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite but have proven to be dominant at home with a 20-8-2 record ATS in their last 30 games as home favorites. To keep their home dominance in this one, a slow pace in this game is necessary to avoid another scoring outburst by the Timberwolves. An area the Warriors have the upper hand in this one to assist their slow pace is rebounding. The Warriors are a top 5 rebounding team offensively and top 10 in opponent rebounds allowed. While Minnesota sits 10th in offensive rebounding as well, they sit 27th in rebounds allowed. Should the Warriors win the battle on the glass and minimize extra opportunities for the Timberwolves, which is a big part of their offense, they should be able to weather the scoring surge Minnesota has shown in recent games.

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The Historicals

Thursday night will be the third time these teams meet this season. The Warriors got the win in the first matchup back in November, but earlier this month, the Timberwolves got the win in a 119-99 final. Looking back at recent seasons, the Warriors have the edge, winning three of the last five games.

How the Public is Betting the Timberwolves vs. Warriors

75% are betting the Warriors against the spread.

57% are wagering on the game to go under the posted total of 228.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

• The Minnesota Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• The Minnesota Timberwolves are 6-2-1 in their last 9 games as a road underdog.
• The Golden State Warriors are 20-8-2 ATS in their last 30 games as home favorites.
• The Golden State Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.
• Over is 4-1 in the Timberwolves’ last 5 games.
• The Minnesota Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games at Golden State.
• Over is 5-0 in the last 5 games between the Timberwolves and Warriors.

Collin’s Pick for Timberwolves/Warriors

Both teams come in playing great offensive basketball and ride a winning streak. The Timberwolves have found success by pushing the pace and putting up as many shots as they can. The Warriors have found their recent success from doing the exact opposite by taking high percentage shots and defending the perimeter, which has slowed down opposing teams. The Warriors have more offensive firepower than the Timberwolves, but this game ultimately comes down to the better defense, which all season has been the Warriors as well. Take the Golden State Warriors to cover the 6-point spread. Note: The weekend is closing in! Check out our AFC and NFC Championship picks before placing your bets!