Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 5 Pick & Predictions

Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26 SU, 46-43 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (57-25 SU, 42-47 ATS)

When: Tuesday, May 14th, 10:30 PM (ET)

Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Min +4/Den -4 (It’s a great day to take a minute to learn about reduced juice basketball betting!)

Total: 205.5

Money Line: Minnesota Timberwolves +152/-184

Notable Injuries

Timberwolves

None

Nuggets

• Jamal Murray (Questionable) Calf
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee

Tip-off for game five of this first-round series between the Timberwolves and Nuggets is set for 10:30 PM ET at Ball Arena in Denver. The series is currently tied at two games apiece, with the Nuggets entering this game as four-point favorites on the spread. The over/under line is sitting at 205.5 points, and the money line odds are -184 for the Nuggets and +152 for the Timberwolves. You can catch the game on TNT.

The Nuggets picked up the win in the most recent game of this series, as they took down the Timberwolves by a score of 115-107. Denver was able to cover the spread as 3.5-point underdogs, and the game also went over the over/under line of 205 points. The Nuggets got off to a fast start, as they outscored the Timberwolves 35-25 in the 2nd quarter.

Denver’s defense held the Timberwolves to 107 points, which was below their season average. Minnesota did shoot the ball well from three-point range, making 39.3% of their shots from beyond the arc. Anthony Edwards had a big game for the Timberwolves, scoring 44 points while making five threes. Nikola Jokic led the Nuggets with 35 points, and Aaron Gordon was right behind him with 27 points.

Recent Form

Minnesota is currently 3rd in the Western Conference with a record of 56-26. Against the Western Conference, they are 37-15 and 19-11 against the East. On the road, they are 30-15 compared to 32-13 at home.

As the underdog, Minnesota has gone 13-10 this season and is 15-8 ATS. They have covered the spread in four straight games as the underdog. Today, they are getting 4 points against the Nuggets.

The Timberwolves have lost two straight games straight up and are 46-43 ATS for the season. Their ATS record on the road is 26-18, and they have covered the spread in four straight road games.

In their last game against the Nuggets, Minnesota lost by a score of 115-107. The O/U line for that game was 205, and the teams combined for 222 points. The Timberwolves were favored by 3.5 points in that game.

This season, Minnesota has an O/U record of 47-43, and the over has hit in their last two games. On average, their games have finished with 218.9 points, and today’s line is set at 205.5.

In today’s game against the Timberwolves, the Nuggets are favored by 4 points. This season, Denver has been favored in 78 of their 82 games and have a record of 56-22 in those games. However, they have failed to cover the spread in their last four games at home.

Denver’s ATS record this season is 42-47, including a home record of 22-23 and a road record of 20-24. They have covered the spread in their last two games and are 5-8 as the favorite.

Denver’s O/U record for the season is 37-52-2, and the over has hit in their last two games. This year, their games have averaged 223.1 points per game, compared to today’s line of 205.5.

Denver’s last game was also against the Timberwolves, and they won 115-107. In that game, they were 3.5-point underdogs. In the Western Conference, the Nuggets are currently in 2nd place with a record of 57-25.

Against Western Conference teams, the Nuggets are 33-19 compared to 24-6 against non-conference opponents. On the road, Denver is 27-18 compared to 36-10 at home.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed against the spread in recent matchups, the Nuggets hold the edge at 3-2. However, the average scoring margin in these matchups has been tight, sitting at just 2 points per game. The over-under record in these same games is 3-2, with the teams combining for an average of 208 points per game.

Analysis

Minnesota comes into the game as the NBA’s 8th-ranked team in field goal percentage, at 48%. Their three-point shooting percentage of 38% is the second-best mark in the league. Despite their high efficiency, the Timberwolves are just 18th in scoring this season, at 113 points per contest.

Anthony Edwards has been carrying the Timberwolves offense of late, averaging 34.6 points per game over his last five games. In these games, he hit 47.5% of his threes. Over his last five games, Karl-Anthony Towns has hit 58.3% of his threes and averaged 2.8 made threes per game.

When it comes to defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been the best in the NBA this season, allowing just 106.2 points per game. That number drops to 103.8 points per game at home, which is also tops in the league. Over their last five games, they have given up 105.4 points per game, which is 8th best during that span.

One area where the Timberwolves have excelled is in defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 35.9% from beyond the arc this season. Over their last five games, that number has risen to 40.7%.

When it comes to rebounds, Minnesota is 14th in the league at 43.6 per game. They are also 7th in blocked shots and 7th in steals. In terms of personal fouls, they are 11th.

Denver comes into the game as the 15th ranked scoring offense, at 114.9 points per game. At home, they are 11th in the league, at 116.5 points per contest. The Nuggets are also a good shooting team, with a field goal percentage of 49%, which is the 4th best mark in the NBA.

Nikola Jokic has been playing well of late, averaging 26.4 points, 8.4 assists, and 13 rebounds in his last five games. For the season, he has hit 35.9% of his threes. Jamal Murray is questionable for the game but has averaged 20 points and 5.2 assists in his last five games.

When it comes to scoring defense, the Denver Nuggets have been one of the best in the league this season, ranking 6th in points allowed per game at 109.1. Their defense has been especially tough at home, where they are giving up just 108.2 points per game, which is 5th in the NBA.

One of the reasons for Denver’s success on defense has been their ability to defend the three-point line. On the season, they are 2nd in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.2%. In terms of total three-pointers made allowed per game, they are also 2nd at 11.1.

Over their last five games, the Nuggets have been even better on defense, ranking 4th in points allowed at 103 per contest. During that stretch, opponents have made just 35.7% of their three-point attempts.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past five road matchups, Minnesota has an ATS record of 4-1 while averaging 113 per game. The team went 4-1 overall in these games.
• Denver has played well in their previous three home games, going 2-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 113 points per game while allowing 105. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
• Minnesota has done well both straight up and vs the spread as the underdog, going 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
• As the betting favorite, the Nuggets have an ATS mark of just 0-5 in their last five games. Denver posted a straight up mark of 2-3 in these matchups.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

If Minnesota was going to pull off the upset in this series, they may have let that opportunity slip through their fingers as they dropped both games three and four at home. Now, they have to go back to Denver, where they have won twice but are facing a Nuggets team that appears to be rolling. I’m taking Denver at -4 in this one. 

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