Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Picks, Predictions & Odds

Minnesota Timberwolves (14-14 SU, 11-17 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (19-10 SU, 17-11 ATS)

When: Wednesday, December 25th, 2:30 PM (ET)

Where: American Airlines Center, TX, Dallas

TV: ABC

Point Spread: Min +5/Dal -5

Total: 222

Money Line: Minnesota Timberwolves +173/-210

Notable Injuries

Timberwolves

• Joe Ingles (Out) Calf
• Luka Garza (Questionable) Ankle
• Daishen Nix (Questionable) Ankle

Mavericks

• Dante Exum (Out) Wrist
• Brandon Williams (Questionable) Thumb
• Jaden Hardy (Questionable) Ankle

The Timberwolves will travel to Dallas to take on the Mavericks in a Western Conference matchup. Minnesota is currently 10th in the West and has lost three straight games. The Mavs are favored by five and have won two in a row.

This game will tip-off at 2:30 ET and can be seen on ABC. The over/under line is set at 222.

Recent Form

The Timberwolves dropped to 14-14 on the season after a 117-104 road loss to the Hawks on Monday. Minnesota, who entered the game as 3-point favorites, failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 221, just under the 223.5 O/U line.

Atlanta started strong with a 12-0 run, pushing the score from 18-9 to 30-9. Minnesota responded by outscoring the Hawks 36-17 in the 2nd quarter. However, after entering the 4th quarter with an 85-82 lead, the Timberwolves were outscored 35-19 in the final period.

The Mavericks improved to 19-10 on the season with a 132-108 win over the Trail Blazers on Monday. Playing at home, Dallas entered the game as 13-point favorites and covered the spread. The combined score of 240 points exceeded the O/U line of 230.5 by 9.5 points.

After trailing 31-28 at the end of the 1st quarter, Dallas took control by outscoring Portland 34-22 in the 2nd quarter and 40-23 in the 3rd. Heading into the 4th quarter with a 102-76 lead, the Mavericks eased off, allowing Portland to win the final quarter 32-30.

The Historicals

In terms of betting, Dallas has an ATS record of 4-1 in the previous five matchups vs Minnesota. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +6 points per game in favor of the Mavericks. Over the course of these games, they averaged 220 points per game, leading a 4-1 over-under record.

Analysis

The Timberwolves struggled offensively in their loss to the Hawks, shooting just 42.9% from the field and 32.6% from three-point range. Despite their shooting woes, they managed to hit 14 threes in the game.

Naz Reid led the way with 23 points, including 10 in the 3rd quarter. Julius Randle added 19 points, 9 of which came in the 3rd, and Anthony Edwards contributed 16 points, with seven coming in both the 1st and 3rd quarters.

Despite a strong defensive effort in the 2nd quarter, where they held the Hawks to just 17 points, the Timberwolves gave up 35 points in both the 1st and 4th quarters, leading to a 117-104 loss. Minnesota allowed Atlanta to shoot 53% from the field.

The Timberwolves struggled to defend the three-point line, as the Hawks hit 18 threes at a 50% clip. Minnesota sent Atlanta to the free-throw line 26 times, where they made 21. The Timberwolves finished with 12 steals and three blocks.

The Mavericks shot 53.3% from the field in their win over the Trail Blazers, with Luka Doncic leading the way with 27 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists. Daniel Gafford was perfect from the field, scoring 23 points, while Kyrie Irving added 20 points, hitting two threes at 33.3% shooting.

Dallas made 12 threes at a 33.3% clip, but their overall shooting was the key to their offensive success. Gafford scored 12 points in the 3rd quarter, while Doncic added 10 points in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters.

Despite a shaky 1st and 4th quarter, the Mavericks’ defense held the Trail Blazers to 108 points on Monday, thanks to strong performances in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, where they allowed just 22 and 23 points, respectively.

Dallas excelled at defending the three, limiting Portland to 8 made threes on 27% shooting. The Mavericks also forced 10 steals and recorded four blocks in the game.

Betting Trends

• Across the Timberwolves last ten road games, the team averaged 107 points per game while allowing 106. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 5-5, while going 4-6 straight-up.
• Across the Mavericks last ten home games, the team averaged 124 points per game while allowing 117. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 7-3, while going 8-2 straight-up.
• Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the Timberwolves have gone 3-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 2-3.
• Dallas has done well both straight up and vs. the spread when favored to win the game, going 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

We have a good one on Christmas day, as the Timberwolves and Mavericks square off in Dallas. The Mavs are currently favored by -5 and are taking on a Minnesota squad that is really struggling. After beating the Spurs on the 15th, they were steamrolled by the Knicks, fell to the Warriors, and lost to the Hawks on the road. All three of these losses were by more than 10 points. Although they may make this a little more competitive than their recent games, I still see Dallas winning and covering the spread.