Timberwolves vs. Magic Prediction & Best Bet for January 9th

Minnesota Timberwolves (19-17 SU, 14-21 ATS) vs. Orlando Magic (22-16 SU, 21-17 ATS)

When: Thursday, January 9th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Kia Center, FL, Orlando

TV: NBA

Point Spread: Min -4.5/Orl +4.5

Total: 204

Money Line: Minnesota Timberwolves -191/+160

Notable Injuries

Timberwolves

• Rob Dillingham (Out) Ankle

Magic

• Gary Harris (Out) Hamstring
• Moritz Wagner (Out) Knee
• Franz Wagner (Out) Oblique
• Jalen Suggs (Out) Lower Back
• Paolo Banchero (Questionable) Oblique

At 7:00 ET, the Timberwolves (-191) will take on the Magic (+160) in Orlando. Minnesota is currently favored by 4.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 204.

Minnesota is currently 19-17 and sits in 8th place in the Western Conference. They are on a two-game win streak. Orlando is 22-16 and in 4th place in the Eastern Conference.

Recent Form

The Timberwolves improved to 19-17 on the season with a 104-97 road win over the Pelicans on Tuesday. Minnesota, who entered the game as 4-point favorites, covered the spread with the 7-point victory. The total points for the game were 201, well under the 221.5 O/U line.

After the Pelicans went on a 10-0 run to take the lead, the Timberwolves responded by outscoring them 29-21 in the 3rd quarter. Minnesota entered the 4th quarter with an 83-75 lead and held on for the win despite being outscored 22-21 in the final period.

Orlando improved to 22-16 with a 103-94 win over the Knicks on Monday. The Magic, who were +10.5 point underdogs, not only won but also covered the spread. The total score of 197 points fell short of the 207-point line.

After trailing 28-24 in the 1st quarter, Orlando took control by winning the 2nd quarter 29-23 and the 3rd 22-17. They entered the 4th quarter with a 75-68 lead and edged out the Knicks 28-26 in the final period to seal the win.

The Historicals

In terms of betting vs the spread, the Magic have gone 3-2, but the Timberwolves actually have a positive scoring differential. In these meetings, Minnesota has averaged 115 points per contest while allowing 110. In these contests, they averaged a combined 225 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

Anthony Edwards knocked down seven threes at a 63.6% clip, finishing with 32 points and nine rebounds in the Timberwolves’ win over the Pelicans. He scored 14 points in the 1st quarter, and Minnesota hit 15 threes as a team, shooting 34.1% from beyond the arc.

Julius Randle added 16 points, and Naz Reid contributed 13 points and 12 rebounds, scoring 8 points in the 4th quarter. The Timberwolves shot 42.7% from the field overall, finishing with 104 points in the game.

Despite a shaky start, the Timberwolves’ defense tightened up after the 1st quarter, allowing just 21 points in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters and 22 in the 4th to hold the Pelicans to 97 points. Minnesota’s defense was particularly effective in limiting New Orleans’ three-point shooting, as the Pelicans hit just 12 threes on 29% shooting.

The Timberwolves also sent the Pelicans to the line 24 times, where they converted 15 free throws. On the boards, Minnesota grabbed 42 defensive rebounds while giving up 13 offensive boards. The Timberwolves also contributed nine steals and eight blocks in the win.

Cole Anthony led the Magic to a win over the Knicks with 24 points, seven rebounds, and four assists, shooting 50% from the field and making three threes at a 50% rate. Wendell Carter Jr. added 19 points, hitting three threes without a miss and shooting 72.7% overall. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope also made three threes, finishing with 15 points on 60% shooting.

Orlando shot 50% from the field as a team, making 11 threes at a 35.5% clip. Anthony scored 8 points in the 3rd quarter, while Carter added 9 points in the 4th.

The Magic put together a strong defensive performance, holding the Knicks to just 94 points. Their best quarter came in the 3rd, where they allowed only 17 points. Overall, they gave up 28 points in the 1st, 23 in the 2nd, and 26 in the 4th.

Orlando’s defense was particularly effective against the three, as they held New York to just four made threes on 18% shooting. The Magic also recorded seven steals and five blocks in the game.

Betting Trends

• The Timberwolves are 3-2 ATS in their last road games and 3-2 straight-up.
• The Magic are 2-1 ATS in their last three home games and 2-1 straight-up.
• In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Magic have a straight-up record of 3-7 and an ATS mark of 5-5.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the favorite, Minnesota has an ATS mark of 4-6 while going 6-4 straight up.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The key heading into this one is if the Magic are going to get Paolo Banchero back, as he is expected to either play tonight or in their next game. Given this uncertainty, I would stay away from the point and look to the over/under line. With the line sitting at 204, I really like the over for tonight’s matchup. Look for this game to come down to the wire and for there to be more points than expected.