Timberwolves vs. Knicks: Spread Pick & Analysis

Minnesota Timberwolves (21-19 SU, 15-24 ATS) vs. New York Knicks (27-15 SU, 22-20 ATS)

When: Friday, January 17th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: Madison Square Garden, NY, New York

TV: MSG

Point Spread: Min +4.5/NY -4.5

Total: 218.5

Money Line: Minnesota Timberwolves +153/-181

Notable Injuries

Timberwolves

• Donte DiVincenzo (Out) Toe
• Leonard Miller (Out) Illness
• Terrence Shannon Jr. (Out) Foot

Knicks

• Karl-Anthony Towns (Questionable) Thumb
• Mitchell Robinson (Out) Ankle

At 7:30 ET, the Knicks (-181) will host the Timberwolves (+153) in a non-conference matchup. The over/under line for this game is currently sitting at 218.5 points.

Minnesota is currently 8th in the Western Conference with a record of 21-19, while New York is 3rd in the East at 27-15. The Knicks are favored by 4.5 points.

Recent Form

The Timberwolves fell to 21-19 on the season after a 116-115 home loss to the Warriors on Wednesday. Minnesota, who entered the game as 7-point favorites, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game reached 231, exceeding the O/U line of 217 by 14 points.

Golden State took control early with a 13-0 run, and the Timberwolves struggled to recover after trailing 34-12 at the end of the 1st quarter. Minnesota outscored the Warriors in each of the remaining quarters, including a 37-29 advantage in the 4th, but couldn’t complete the comeback.

The Knicks improved to 27-15 on the season with a 125-119 road win over the 76ers on Wednesday. New York, favored by 5.5 points, covered the spread, and the game’s total of 244 points exceeded the O/U line of 218.5 by 25.5 points.

New York jumped out to a 30-21 lead after the 1st quarter and extended their lead by 4 points in the 2nd quarter. However, the 76ers stormed back in the 3rd, outscoring the Knicks 38-25 to tie the game at 85 heading into the 4th. Both teams scored 24 points in the final quarter, but the Knicks ultimately came out on top.

The Historicals

In terms of betting, New York has an ATS record of 3-2 in the previous five matchups vs Minnesota. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +4 points per game in favor of the Knicks. In these contests, they averaged a combined 234 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

In their 116-115 loss to the Warriors, the Timberwolves connected on 17 threes, shooting 45.9% from deep, though their overall field goal percentage was 44.2%. Donte DiVincenzo and Anthony Edwards each scored 28 points, with DiVincenzo hitting six threes at a 50% clip.

DiVincenzo added 10 points in the 3rd quarter, while Edwards also scored 10 in both the 2nd and 3rd. Julius Randle contributed 17 points, with seven coming in the final period, and Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid also added 7 points each in the 4th.

The Timberwolves gave up 116 points to the Warriors, including 34 in the 1st quarter and 32 in the 3rd. They tightened up in the 2nd, allowing just 21 points, but it wasn’t enough to secure the win.

Defensively, Minnesota struggled from beyond the arc, allowing Golden State to hit 18 threes at a 50% clip. They also sent the Warriors to the line 21 times, where they converted 18 free throws. The Timberwolves finished with four steals and seven blocks.

Jalen Brunson’s 38 points and five rebounds led the Knicks to a 125-119 win over the 76ers, as he shot 63.6% from the field and hit three threes at a 50% rate. Mikal Bridges added 23 points, connecting on five threes at 50% efficiency, while OG Anunoby contributed 17 points despite shooting just 37.5% from the field, with three made threes.

New York hit 16 threes at a 43.2% clip, finishing with an overall field goal percentage of 53.5%. Brunson scored 8 points in both the 4th quarter and overtime, while Anunoby added 4 points in the extra period.

Despite a rough 3rd quarter where they allowed 38 points, the Knicks’ defense held strong in the 1st and 4th quarters, giving up just 21 and 24 points, respectively, to secure the win. Overall, they allowed 119 points on 50% shooting from the 76ers.

From beyond the arc, New York gave up 13 three-pointers on 37% shooting. They also sent the 76ers to the line 14 times, where they hit all their free throws. The Knicks finished with 10 steals and three blocks.

Betting Trends

• Across their ten previous road games, Minnesota has an ATS mark of 5-5. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 6-4 while averaging 107 points per game.
• In their last five games at home, the Knicks have a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 2-3 vs the spread. The team averaged 124 points per game in this stretch.
• The last ten games that Minnesota was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 5-4-1 while going 4-6 straight up.
• As the betting favorite, the Knicks have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight-up record was 2-1.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Right now, it’s up in the air if the Timberwolves will be facing their former face of the franchise, Karl-Anthony Towns. Currently, he is questionable with a thumb injury. Still, the Knicks are favored at -4.5. I think Anthony Edwards keeps the Wolves close for a while in this one, but I’m counting on a huge game from Jalen Brunson. My pick is to take the Knicks to cover.