Timberwolves vs. Kings ATS Pick: Can Minnesota Bounce Back From a Tough Loss?

Minnesota Timberwolves (6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS) vs. Sacramento Kings (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS)

When: Friday, November 15th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Golden 1 Center, CA, Sacramento

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Min -2/Sac +2

Total: 222

Money Line: Minnesota Timberwolves -133/+112

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Notable Injuries

Timberwolves

• No Injuries Reported

Kings

• DeMar DeRozan (Doubtful) Lower Back
• Malik Monk (Out) Ankle
• Devin Carter (Out) Shoulder

At 10:00 ET, the Timberwolves (-133) will travel to Sacramento to take on the Kings (+112). The over/under line for this Western Conference matchup is currently sitting at 222 points.

Minnesota (-2) is currently 6-6 and in 11th place in the Western Conference. They have lost three straight games. As for the Kings, they are 7-5 and in 8th place in the West. Sacramento is 4th in the Pacific Division.

Recent Form

The Timberwolves dropped to 6-6 on the season after a 106-98 road loss to the Trail Blazers on Wednesday. Minnesota, who entered the game as 10-point favorites, failed to cover the spread. The total score of 204 points fell well short of the 219.5-point O/U line.

After a strong start, leading 33-23 after the 1st quarter, the Timberwolves scored just 15 points in the 2nd quarter. The game was tied at 76 going into the 4th, but a 13-0 run by Portland broke the game open.

The Kings improved to 7-5 this season with a 127-104 win over the Suns on Wednesday. Sacramento, playing at home, covered the spread as 8-point favorites, and the game’s total of 231 points went over the line of 225.5.

Sacramento took control with an 11-0 run, stretching the score from 40-34 to 51-34. Although the Suns edged the Kings 27-26 in the 2nd quarter, Sacramento pulled away in the 3rd and 4th quarters, outscoring Phoenix 66-48 in the second half.

The Historicals

Through the last five matchups between the teams, Minnesota has an ATS mark of 3-2. But, looking at the scoring margin in these games, an average of just 0 points per game separates the teams. Over the course of these games, they averaged 230 points per game, leading a 3-2 over-under record.

Analysis

In Wednesday’s loss to the Trail Blazers, the Timberwolves struggled offensively, shooting just 39.4% from the field and making only seven three-pointers at a 17.9% clip. Anthony Edwards led the way with 24 points, 12 of which came in the 3rd quarter.

Julius Randle added 20 points and ten rebounds, scoring 9 points in the 4th quarter. Naz Reid contributed 15 points, hitting two threes at 25% efficiency.

The Timberwolves put up a solid defensive effort, holding the Trail Blazers to 106 points, but it wasn’t enough to avoid the loss. They allowed 23 points in the 1st quarter and 25 in the 2nd, but Portland scored 28 in the 3rd and 30 in the 4th. Minnesota limited the Trail Blazers to 9 made threes on 36% shooting from deep.

Portland went to the line 23 times, making 21 free throws. The Timberwolves grabbed 28 defensive rebounds but gave up 11 offensive boards. They also recorded 12 steals and three blocks in the game.

De’Aaron Fox led the Kings with 29 points and ten assists in their win over the Suns, shooting 64.7% from the field. Kevin Huerter added 22 points, with 11 coming in the 3rd quarter.

The Kings shot 64.1% from the field and hit 15 threes at a 53.6% rate. Keegan Murray connected on three threes, shooting 60% from deep and finishing with 17 points, including 10 in the 1st quarter.

The Kings put together a strong defensive performance on Wednesday, holding the Suns to 104 points on 37% shooting. Sacramento’s defense improved as the game went on, allowing just 24 points in both the 3rd and 4th quarters.

From beyond the arc, the Kings limited the Suns to 13 threes on 30% shooting. Sacramento also recorded seven steals and eight blocks in the win.

Betting Trends

• Across the Timberwolves last three road games, the team averaged 113 points per game while allowing 115. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 1-2 while going 1-2 straight-up.
• In their last three home games, Sacramento has averaged 111 points per game while allowing 114. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Kings have a straight-up record of 2-8. Their record vs the spread in these games was 4-6.
• Looking back on the team’s last three games as the favorite, the Timberwolves have a straight-up record of 0-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 0-3.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

With DeMar DeRozan looking like he won’t take the floor tonight, I see this as being a great time to jump on Minnesota to cover at -2. Sacramento is also without Malik Monk, and I see them struggling offensively in this one. I could easily see the Timberwolves running away with this one, and I am taking them to cover at -2.

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