Timberwolves vs. Bucks Prediction: Can Milwaukee Cover Without Lillard?

Minnesota Timberwolves (46-32 SU, 37-40 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (44-34 SU, 38-38 ATS)

When: Tuesday, April 8th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

TV: FDSW

Point Spread: Min -4.5/Mil +4.5

Total: 222.5

Money Line: Minnesota Timberwolves -188/+158

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Notable Injuries

Timberwolves

• Terrence Shannon Jr. (Questionable) Groin

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Shoulder
• Damian Lillard (Out) Calf
• Pat Connaughton (Questionable) Ankle
• Jericho Sims (Out) Thumb

At 8:00 ET, the Minnesota Timberwolves (-188) will travel to take on the Milwaukee Bucks (+158) in a non-conference matchup. Minnesota is favored by 4.5 points and has won five straight games. The over/under line for the game is 222.5.

This game will be played at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee and can be seen on FDSW. The Timberwolves are 7th in the Western Conference with a record of 46-32, while the Bucks are 5th in the East at 44-34 and have won four straight.

Recent Form

With a 114-109 win over the 76ers on Saturday, the Timberwolves improved to 46-32. Minnesota was favored by 16 points but didn’t cover the spread. The game’s total points of 223 fell just short of the 224.5-point over/under line.

A key moment came when the Timberwolves went on an 11-0 run, turning a 29-25 deficit into a 36-29 lead. After a 31-28 third quarter in favor of the 76ers, Minnesota responded by outscoring Philadelphia 31-27 in the final period.

With a 111-107 win over the Pelicans on Sunday, the Bucks improved to 44-34 this season. Milwaukee was favored by six points going into the game but didn’t cover the spread, winning by four. The total points for the game were set at 218.5, and the teams combined for 218, just under the line.

Milwaukee took control in the 2nd quarter, outscoring New Orleans 30-22. Heading into the 4th quarter with an 81-78 lead, the Bucks went on a decisive 13-0 run, stretching the score from 91-89 to 104-89 before the Pelicans closed the gap late.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed against the spread in recent matchups, the Bucks hold the edge at 4-1. However, the average scoring margin in these matchups has been tight, sitting at just 1 points per game. In these contests, they averaged a combined 221 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

Anthony Edwards led the Timberwolves to a win over the 76ers with 37 points, hitting six threes at 46.2% efficiency. Overall, Minnesota made 11 threes at 32.4%, but shot 50.6% from the field.

Edwards scored 18 points in the 4th quarter, while Rudy Gobert added 8 of his 23 points late, finishing with 19 rebounds and shooting 90.9% from the field.

Defensively, the Timberwolves gave up 109 points to the 76ers but still managed to secure the win. They allowed 23 points in the 1st quarter, 28 in the 2nd, 31 in the 3rd, and 27 in the 4th. Philadelphia shot 48% from the field.

Minnesota did a good job defending the three, holding the 76ers to 12 made threes on 34% shooting. The Timberwolves also sent Philadelphia to the line 15 times, where they hit nine free throws. Minnesota finished with five steals and seven blocks.

Gary Trent Jr. led the Bucks with 29 points and four threes in their 111-107 win over the Pelicans, shooting 58.8% from the field. Brook Lopez and Kevin Porter Jr. each added 20 points, with Porter hitting three threes at a 60% rate.

The Bucks struggled from beyond the arc, making just 11 threes at 34.4%, and shot 46.7% overall. Lopez and Trent both scored 8 points in the 1st quarter, while Lopez added another 8 in the 4th.

The Bucks tightened up defensively after a rough 1st quarter, where they allowed 31 points, giving up just 22 in the 2nd and 25 in the 3rd. They gave up 29 points in the 4th but still managed to hold the Pelicans to 107 points overall.

Milwaukee limited New Orleans to 36% shooting from three, allowing 12 made threes. The Pelicans also went 9/14 from the free-throw line. The Bucks finished with 41 defensive rebounds, gave up nine offensive boards, and recorded 10 steals.

Betting Trends

• In their last five road games, Minnesota has averaged 115 points per game while allowing 110. The team’s record in this stretch was 4-1 while going 3-2 vs. the spread.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Milwaukee has an ATS record of 4-1 while averaging 116 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
• In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Bucks have a straight-up record of 4-6 and an ATS mark of 6-3-1.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Timberwolves have a strong straight up record of 3-0. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Heading into tonight’s matchup, the Timberwolves are the -4.5-point favorite heading into Milwaukee. However, even without Damian Lillard, I think the Bucks can hang around in this one. The emergence of Ryan Rollins and Kevin Porter Jr. in the backcourt has helped the Bucks right the ship a bit, and I like them to cover at +4.5.

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