Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Preview

Minnesota Timberwolves (35-16 SU, 25-25 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (33-18 SU, 19-32 ATS)

When: Thursday, February 8th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

TV: BSW

Point Spread: Min +1/Mil -1

Total: 228.5

Money Line: Minnesota Timberwolves -102/-119

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Notable Injuries

Timberwolves

• Monte Morris (Questionable) Trade Pending
• Jaylen Clark (Out) Achilles

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Knee
• Khris Middleton (Out) Ankle
• Jae Crowder (Probable) Ankle
• Brook Lopez (Probable) Personal
• Damian Lillard (Questionable) Ankle
• Cameron Payne (Probable) Knee

At 8:00 ET, the Timberwolves (-102) will travel to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks (-119) in a non-conference matchup. The Bucks are currently favored by one point, with the over/under line set at 228.5.

Minnesota (35-16) is 2nd in the Western Conference, while Milwaukee (33-18) is 3rd in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks have lost two straight games.

Recent Form

Minnesota’s O/U record for the season is 25-26, and today’s line of 228.5 is higher than the average of 222.9 in their games. In 41 of their games, the O/U line has been lower than 228.5.

The Timberwolves’ O/U record in non-conference games is 11-8 compared to 24-18 in the Western Conference. This season, their games have averaged 220.3 points per game.

Minnesota is 5-5 as the underdog this season and 6-4 ATS in those games. The team has gone 2-2 as the underdog vs. the spread in their last two games.

In their last game against the Bulls, the Timberwolves lost 129-123. The O/U line for that game was 217, and Minnesota was favored by 5.5 points going into the game.

Overall, the Timberwolves are 35-16 this season, which is the 2nd best record in the Western Conference. On the road, they are 16-11 compared to 19-5 at home.

Currently, the Bucks are favored by 1 point at home against the Timberwolves. In their last game, they were 6-point underdogs against the Suns and lost by a score of 114-106.

For the season, Milwaukee is 19-32 ATS and has failed to cover the spread in their last two games. At home, their ATS record is 10-16.

The Bucks are 3rd in the Eastern Conference with a record of 33-18. In games against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 24-12 and 9-6 in non-conference games.

On average, Milwaukee’s games have finished with a combined scoring total of 243.1 points, which is higher than today’s O/U line of 228.5. The team’s O/U record for the season is 28-23.

In their last five games, the Bucks have lost to the spread as the favorite. Their ATS record as the favorite is 18-28, and they are 0-5 ATS as the underdog.

The Bucks’ most recent loss came against the Suns, where they were 6-point underdogs. The teams combined for 220 points, which was below the O/U line of 242.5.

The Historicals

Over the last 5 head to head meetings, the Bucks have averaged 119 points per game compared to 114 for Minnesota. This has led to an ATS record of 3-2 for Milwaukee. In these contests, they averaged a combined 233 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

The Timberwolves’ offense has been one of the most efficient in the league this season. They are shooting 48% from the field, which is 8th in the NBA. Additionally, they are 7th in true shooting percentage.

Minnesota is 16th in three-point shooting at 39% and are attempting 31.8 three-pointers per game. They are also 12th in free throws made per game.

When it comes to scoring, the Timberwolves are 22nd in the league at 113.1 points per game. In terms of pace, they are 25th in the NBA.

Minnesota’s defense has been playing well, ranking 1st in the NBA with 107.1 points allowed per game. In terms of takeaways, the Timberwolves are causing 14.2 turnovers per game, ranking 27th in the league. They also enter the matchup ranked 9th in rejections, averaging 5.8 blocked shots each game.At home, the Bucks are averaging 125.6 points per game, which is 2nd in the league. Overall, they are 2nd in scoring at 123.3 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage, Milwaukee is 4th in the NBA at 49%. So far this season, they have made an average of 14.2 three-pointers per game.

When it comes to pace, the Bucks are 2nd in the league at 101.9 possessions per game. In terms of free throws, Milwaukee is 2nd in both attempts and makes at 26.3 and 20.3 per game, respectively.

So far, the Bucks have outscored the NBA scoring average in 74.5% of their games. In terms of offensive rebounds, they are 26th in the league at 9.4 per game. In terms of assists, Milwaukee is 14th in the NBA at 26.6 per game.

So far, the Bucks’ defense is ranked 24th in the league at 119.8 points per contest. When it comes to forced turnovers, the Bucks are forcing 12.5 per game, which is 12th in the league. They also come into the game sitting 16th in blocked shots at 5.2 per game.

Betting Trends

• Although Minnesota has a straight up record of 6-4 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 5-5. The team averaged 114 points per game in these games.
• Through their last ten home contests, the Bucks offense has averaged 115 points per game while allowing an average of 120. Milwaukee posted an overall record of 4-6 while going 1-9 ATS.
• In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Timberwolves have a straight up record of 1-2 and an ATS mark of 2-1.
• Through their last three games as the favorite, the Bucks have an ATS record of 2-1 and a straight up mark of 2-1.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Bucks are coming off a tough Western Conference road trip, while the Timberwolves will be looking to rebound from a disappointing loss to the Bulls. One of my favorite spots to bet an NBA game is to fade a home team coming off a long road trip when they play within 48 hours of their last game. These guys are subject to jetlag, lots of humping wives/girlfriends due to long absence and they often times come out flat. I’m betting the T-Wolves at +1.