Timberwolves at Pelicans Nov 18: Minnesota’s Betting Edge Analyzed

Minnesota Timberwolves (8-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)

When: Saturday, November 18th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Smoothie King Center, LA, New Orleans

TV: BSNO

Point Spread: Min -4.5/NO +4.5

Total: 221

Money Line: Minnesota Timberwolves -204/+168

Notable Injuries

Timberwolves

• Jordan McLaughlin (Out) Knee
• Jaylen Clark (Out) Achilles

Pelicans

• CJ McCollum (Out) Lung
• Larry Nance Jr. (Out) Rib
• Trey Murphy III (Out) Knee
• Jose Alvarado (Questionable) Ankle

Recent Form

Today, the Timberwolves are entering the action with an overall record of 8-3 and have achieved a 2-1 record over their last three games. So far, the Timberwolves have gone 6-1 when playing against Western Conference teams and 2-2 in non-conference contests.

Coming into today’s matchup, the Pelicans are focused on adding to their two-game winning streak, with an overall record of 6-6. Across their 12 games, the Pelicans have recorded a 4-5 record when facing teams from the Western Conference and a 2-1 record in non-conference games.

The Historicals

The ATS record across the previous five head-to-head meetings is 4-1 in favor of the Timberwolves. In these matchups, Minnesota has averaged 117 points per game while allowing 111. The over-under record in these same games is 3-2, with the teams combining for an average of 228 points per game.

Analysis

In their recent matchup, the Timberwolves offense ended with 115 points against the Suns. They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 45.7% and made five threes. Currently leading the team in scoring is Anthony Edwards, who comes into today’s matchup averaging 26.3. Karl-Anthony Towns also heads into the game with a PPG average of 21.

In the current season, the Timberwolves defense has excelled, sitting 2nd in the NBA by allowing 105.6 points per game.

Opponents are hitting 49.9% of their two-point field goal attempts this season, and they’re also connecting on 33.9% of their three-point attempts.

In their previous game, the Pelicans’ offense finished with 115 points, which is right in line with their current average of 111.4 points per contest. Leading the Pelicans in scoring vs. the Nuggets was Zion Williamson with his 26 points. Jonas Valanciunas also added 22 points for the Pelicans.

At this time, the Pelicans’ defense is positioned 21st in the NBA, permitting 115.2 points per game.

New Orleans’ defense is currently forcing 13.6 turnovers per game, which is 13th in the league. Additionally, they enter the game ranked 21st in blocked shots, with an average of 4.6 rejections per game.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past five road matchups, Minnesota has an ATS record of 1-3-1 while averaging 113 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
• Across the Pelicans’ last three home games, the team averaged 106 points per game while allowing 120. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 0-3, while going 0-3 straight-up.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Pelicans have gone 5-5 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 5-5.
• Against the spread, the Timberwolves have put together 1-1-1 in their last three games as the betting favorite. In these same games, they went 3-0 straight up.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

In this matchup, not only do I have the T-Wolves getting back on track after their loss to the Suns, I see them covering the spread vs. the Pelicans. Right now, the lines have them as -4.5 point favorites, so I’m locking this in now. My pick is Minnesota -4.5.