Thunder vs. Warriors Betting Preview: ATS and Predictions

Oklahoma City Thunder (13-4 SU, 10-7 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS)

When: Wednesday, November 27th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Chase Center, CA, San Francisco

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: OKC -2.5/GS +2.5

Total: 230

Money Line: Oklahoma City Thunder -141/+119

Notable Injuries

Thunder

• Alex Caruso (Out) Right Hip
• Chet Holmgren (Out) Hip
• Ousmane Dieng (Out) Right Ring Finger
• Jaylin Williams (Out) Hamstring
• Nikola Topic (Out) Knee
• Alex Ducas (Out) Achilles

Warriors

• Stephen Curry (Questionable) Knee
• De’Anthony Melton (Out) ACL
• Jonathan Kuminga (Questionable) Illness

The Warriors and Thunder will tip-off at 10:00 ET in a Western Conference showdown. Golden State is currently 2.5-point underdogs and has lost two straight games. On the other side, the Thunder are favored by 2.5 and have won two in a row. The over/under line is sitting at 230 points.

This game will be played at the Chase Center in San Francisco and can be seen on ESPN. The Thunder are 13-4 and hold the top spot in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Warriors are 12-5 and are second in the West.

Recent Form

With a 130-109 win over the Kings on Monday, the Thunder improved to 13-4 this season. Oklahoma City was favored by 3.5 points and covered the spread, while the combined score of 239 points exceeded the O/U line of 224.5 by 14.5 points.

After a tight first half, the Thunder pulled away by outscoring the Kings 34-22 in the 3rd quarter and 33-25 in the 4th, turning a 97-84 lead into a +21 point victory.

The Warriors dropped to 12-5 on the season after a 128-120 loss to the Nets on Monday. Golden State, who were -13.5 point favorites, not only lost straight up but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game ended at 248, well over the 224.5 O/U line.

Golden State looked strong in the 2nd quarter, outscoring Brooklyn 37-24, and they went on an 11-0 run to take control early. However, after leading 92-87 going into the 4th quarter, the Warriors were outscored 41-28 in the final period.

The Historicals

Across the previous five meetings between the teams, the Thunder have an average scoring margin of +3 points per game, leading to an ATS mark of 3-2. In these contests, they averaged a combined 257 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 5-0.

Analysis

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder to a 130-109 win over the Kings, scoring 37 points and dishing out 11 assists while shooting 65% from the field and hitting four threes at a 57.1% clip. Jalen Williams added 28 points, including 11 in the 4th quarter, and Isaiah Hartenstein contributed 19 points and ten rebounds.

Oklahoma City shot 55.8% from the field and made 14 threes, connecting at a 45.2% rate. Gilgeous-Alexander scored 12 points in both the 1st and 3rd quarters, while Ajay Mitchell added 6 of his 15 points in the final period.

Despite giving up 62 points in the first half, the Thunder tightened up defensively in the 3rd quarter, allowing just 22 points, and held the Kings to 25 in the 4th to secure the win. Oklahoma City gave up 109 points on 48% shooting from the field.

The Thunder did an excellent job defending the three, holding the Kings to 8 made threes on 25% shooting. Oklahoma City sent Sacramento to the line 23 times, where they made 17 free throws. The Thunder finished with six steals and three blocks.

Stephen Curry knocked down eight threes, shooting 50% from deep, and finished with 28 points and seven assists in the Warriors’ 128-120 loss to the Nets. As a team, Golden State hit 19 threes, shooting 41.3% from beyond the arc and 48.4% overall from the field.

Curry added 11 points in the 4th quarter, while Andrew Wiggins scored 9 of his 18 points in the final period. Moses Moody contributed 12 of his 15 points in the 2nd quarter, and Lindy Waters added 7 of his 13 points in the opening frame.

The Warriors’ defense had a strong 2nd quarter but struggled in the 4th, giving up 41 points in a 128-120 loss to the Nets. They allowed Brooklyn to shoot 49% from the field.

Golden State’s defense gave up 20 threes at a 44% clip. They also sent the Nets to the line 30 times, where they hit 26 free throws. The Warriors finished with 32 defensive rebounds, eight steals, and five blocks.

Betting Trends

• Across their last five road contests, Oklahoma City has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 3-2. Their overall mark in these games was 3-2, while averaging 119 points per game.
• Through their last ten home contests, the Warriors offense has averaged 118 points per game while allowing an average of 110. Golden State posted an overall record of 7-3 while going 6-4 ATS.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, Golden State has an ATS mark of 7-3 while going 7-3 straight up.
• Across their last five matchups as the betting favorite, the Thunder have an overall record of 3-2 while going 2-3 against the spread.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

It was a bad loss for the Warriors on Monday, falling to the Nets in a game in which they were heavily favored. Now, they find themselves as the +2.5 point underdogs at home. There are some absences for the Thunder in this one, with the Holmgren and Caruso already being ruled out. As for the Warriors, they have Steph Curry listed as questionable, which is a downgrade for him, as he previously had been probable with this same knee injury. With Jonathan Kuminga’s status also up in the air, I like the Thunder to win and cover the spread.