Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: Best Bets & Top Betting Angles

Oklahoma City Thunder (36-8 SU, 27-15 ATS) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (17-28 SU, 24-21 ATS)

When: Sunday, January 26th, 6:00 PM (ET)

Where: Moda Center, OR, Portland

TV: KATU

Point Spread: OKC -12.5/Por +12.5

Total: 225.5

Money Line: Oklahoma City Thunder -773/+540

Notable Injuries

Thunder

• Luguentz Dort (Out) Knee
• Chet Holmgren (Out) Hip
• Nikola Topic (Out) Knee
• Ajay Mitchell (Out) Toe

Trail Blazers

• Deandre Ayton (Out) Left Knee
• Matisse Thybulle (Out) Ankle

At 6:00 ET, the Thunder (-773) will be in Portland to take on the Blazers (+540). The Thunder are favored by 12.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 225.5 points.

Oklahoma City (36-8) is currently 1st in the Western Conference and 1st in the Northwest Division. Portland (17-28) is 13th in the West and 4th in the Northwest. The Blazers come into this game with a 4-game winning streak.

Recent Form

The Thunder dropped to 36-8 on the season after a 121-115 home loss to the Mavericks on Thursday. Oklahoma City entered the game as -11.5 favorites but couldn’t cover the spread. The total score of 236 points went over the pre-game line of 224.5.

A key moment came when Dallas went on an 11-0 run, stretching their lead from 62-57 to 73-57. The Thunder battled back, outscoring the Mavericks 32-30 in the 4th quarter, but couldn’t close the gap.

Portland improved to 17-28 on the season with a 102-97 road win over the Hornets on Friday. The Blazers entered the game as 1-point favorites and covered the spread, while the total score of 199 points fell well short of the 216.5-point line.

After Charlotte went on a 16-0 run early, Portland battled back, winning each of the final three quarters. They outscored the Hornets 29-22 in the 4th quarter to seal the win.

The Historicals

Across the last five matchups between the teams, Portland has gone 3-2 vs the spread. However, the Thunder actually have a positive scoring margin in these games at +21 points per game. A combined average of 227 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

In Thursday’s loss to the Mavericks, the Thunder shot 47.7% from the field and connected on 15 threes, hitting 40.5% from beyond the arc. Jalen Williams led the way with 33 points, seven assists, and four threes, shooting 57.9% overall. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 31 points and seven assists, shooting 48% from the field.

Jalen Williams scored 14 points in the 3rd quarter and added 11 more in the 4th. Gilgeous-Alexander also came up big in the final period, scoring 16 of his 31 points. Jaylin Williams contributed 9 of his 12 points in the 1st quarter, hitting three threes at a 75% clip.

Defensively, the Thunder struggled on Thursday, giving up 121 points to the Mavericks. Oklahoma City allowed 33 points in the 1st quarter and 31 in the 3rd, while Dallas shot 52% from the field.

The Thunder also sent the Mavericks to the line 36 times, where they hit 29 free throws. Oklahoma City allowed 14 threes on 45% shooting but managed nine steals and four blocks.

In their win over the Hornets, the Trail Blazers shot 40.5% from the field and 28.9% from three, making 11 threes. Anfernee Simons led the way with 27 points, hitting four threes at 40%, while Jerami Grant added 22 points, also making four threes at 50%.

Simons scored 12 points in the 4th quarter, and Grant added 13 of his points in the 2nd. Deni Avdija contributed 18 points, with six coming in the final period.

Despite a shaky start, the Trail Blazers tightened up defensively after the 1st quarter, allowing just 67 points over the final three quarters to secure a win over the Hornets. Portland gave up 30 points in the 1st but responded by holding Charlotte to 24 points in the 2nd, 21 in the 3rd, and 22 in the 4th.

The Trail Blazers held the Hornets to 37% shooting from the field, including just 9 made threes on 29% shooting. Portland also recorded 12 steals and six blocks in the game.

Betting Trends

• Although Oklahoma City has a straight-up record of 2-1 in their last three road games, they have not held up as well vs. the spread going 1-1-1. The team averaged 117 points per game in these games.
• Across their last five home contests, Portland has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 5-0. Their overall mark in these games was 4-1 while averaging 109 points per game.
• As the betting underdog, the Trail Blazers have an ATS record of 3-0 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight-up record was 3-0.
• Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Thunder have a straight-up record of 8-2. But, their mark vs the spread was just 6-3-1.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

This Thunder vs Trail Blazers matchup is the only game of the day across the league, and the Thunder are the big-time favorites at -12.5. OKC just fell to the Mavs on Thursday and is in a great spot to pick up a win. Yet, I see Portland playing them tough enough to keep this one within +12.5. I’m taking Portland to cover as home dogs.