Thunder vs. Suns Betting Preview & Pick | Mar 3/24

Oklahoma City Thunder (41-18 SU, 38-21 ATS) vs. Phoenix Suns (35-25 SU, 24-35 ATS)

When: Sunday, March 3rd, 9:30 PM (ET)

Where: Footprint Center, AZ, Phoenix

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: OKC -4.5/Pho +4.5

Total: 234

Money Line: Oklahoma City Thunder -181/+150

Notable Injuries

Thunder

• Jaylin Williams (Out) Knee

Suns

• Eric Gordon (Questionable) Groin
• Jusuf Nurkic (Questionable) Neck
• Devin Booker (Questionable) Ankle
• Damion Lee (Out) Knee
• Royce O’Neale (Questionable) Ankle
• Nassir Little (Out) Left Knee

At 9:30 ET, the Thunder (-181) will be in Phoenix to take on the Suns (+150) in a Western Conference matchup. The Thunder are favored by 4.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 234.

Oklahoma City is 41-18 and sitting in second place in the Western Conference, while Phoenix is 35-25 and in sixth place in the West. This game will be played at the Footprint Center and can be seen on ESPN.

Recent Form

Today, the Thunder are favored by 4.5 points against the Suns. This season, Oklahoma City has been favored in 43 of their 59 games, going 32-11 in those games. As the favorite, they have an average scoring margin of +10.3 points per game.

Oklahoma City’s O/U record for the season is 33-25-1, and their games have averaged a combined 234.6 points per game. This is right in line with today’s O/U line of 234.

In their last game against the Spurs, the Thunder lost by a score of 132-118. They were favored by 11 points in that game, and the O/U line was 238.5. This means the teams combined for 250 points, resulting in an over.

Despite the loss, the Thunder are still in 2nd place in the Western Conference with a record of 41-18. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 25-14 compared to 16-4 in non-conference games.

Oklahoma City’s ATS record for the season is 38-21, and they are 17-12 ATS on the road. Currently, they have won 4 straight games against the spread on the road.

The Suns have an O/U record of 27-33-0 this season, and the under has hit in their last six games. On average, their games have seen 231.6 points scored, and today’s O/U line is set at 234.

Phoenix’s ATS record for the season is 24-35, and they have failed to cover the spread in their last two games. As the underdog, they are 6-8 vs. the spread and have gone 5-9 straight-up.

In their last game, the Suns lost to the Rockets by a score of 118-109. The O/U line for that game was 232.5 points, and Phoenix was favored by 8.5 points going into the game.

Currently, the Suns are 6th in the Western Conference with a record of 35-25. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 21-18 compared to 14-7 in non-conference games.

At home, the Suns have an average scoring differential of +3.1 points per game. Their overall home record is 20-12, and they are 12-19 ATS at home. On the road, they are 15-13 straight-up and 12-16 ATS.

The Historicals

Over the last 5 head to head meetings, the Suns have averaged 120 points per game compared to 113 for Oklahoma City. This has led to an ATS record of 3-2 for Phoenix. A combined average of 233 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 4-1.

Analysis

Coming into tonight’s game, the Thunder are 3rd in the league in scoring at 121.2 points per game. However, they have scored below the NBA average in 30.5% of their games this season. On the road, they are averaging 118.8 points per game.

Oklahoma City is one of the most efficient shooting teams in the league, ranking 2nd in field goal percentage at 50%. They are also 1st in the NBA in true shooting percentage. In terms of pace, the Thunder are 11th in the league at 99.8 possessions per game.

When it comes to three-point shooting, the Thunder are 10th in the league in made threes per game at 13.5. Overall, they are shooting 39% from beyond the arc, which is 1st in the NBA. In terms of free throws, Oklahoma City is 12th in the league in made free throws per game.

This season, the Thunder’s defense is the 13th ranked defense in the NBA at 13th PPG. So far, they have held opposing offenses below the NBA scoring average in 57.6% of their games. Oklahoma City’s defense is currently forcing 11.6 turnovers per game, which is 2nd in the league. Additionally, they enter the game ranked 1st in blocked shots, with an average of 6.7 rejections per game.

At home, the Suns are averaging 117.3 points per game, which is 14th in the NBA. Overall, they are 11th in scoring at 117.2 points per game. In terms of pace, Phoenix is 15th in the league at 98.7 possessions per game.

When it comes to field goal percentage, the Suns are one of the most efficient teams in the league. They are shooting 49% from the field, which is 4th in the NBA. From beyond the arc, Phoenix is 10th in three-point shooting at 37%.

One area where the Suns have excelled is getting to the free-throw line. They lead the league in free-throw attempts per game at 25.4 and are 2nd in made free throws at 20.5 per game.

Coming into today’s game, the Suns’ defense is giving up an average of 114.4 points per contest. Phoenix struggled on the boards in their last game vs. the Rockets, giving up 9. For the game, Houston scored 118 points in the game.

Betting Trends

• Although Oklahoma City has a straight-up record of 2-3 in their last five road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 2-3. The team averaged 119 points per game in these games.
• In their last ten games at home, the Suns have a straight-up record of 4-6 while going 4-6 vs. the spread. The team averaged 121 points per game in this stretch.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Suns have gone 3-7 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 3-7.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Thunder have a strong straight-up record of 2-1. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

This is just the 2nd matchup of the season between the Thunder and Suns. It’s tough to put too much stock into the first meeting as it came back in November, with OKC picking up a convincing win. Even though the Suns have a lengthy injury report coming into the game, I like them at home today vs. the Thunder. My pick is to take Phoenix at +4.5.