Thunder vs. Pistons: Expert NBA Analysis & Total Pick

Detroit Pistons (42-33 SU, 40-33 ATS) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (63-12 SU, 48-24 ATS)

When: Wednesday, April 2nd, 9:30 PM (ET)

Where: Paycom Center, OK, Oklahoma City

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Det +14/OKC -14 (Bet smart! Lay only -105 instead of -110 at BAS Sportsbook!)

Total: 231

Money Line: Detroit Pistons +635/-972

Notable Injuries

Pistons

• Tobias Harris (Probable) Achilles
• Isaiah Stewart (Out) Suspension
• Cade Cunningham (Doubtful) Calf
• Jaden Ivey (Out) Fibula
• Marcus Sasser (Out) Suspension
• Ron Holland II (Out) Suspension

Thunder

• Aaron Wiggins (Out) Achilles
• Ousmane Dieng (Out) Calf
• Nikola Topić (Out) Knee
• Ajay Mitchell (Out) Toe
• Alex Ducas (Out) Quad

At 9:30 ET, the Thunder (-972) will host the Pistons (+635) in a non-conference matchup. Oklahoma City is currently on a 10-game winning streak and has a record of 63-12. The Pistons are 5th in the East with a record of 42-33.

ESPN will have the coverage from Paycom Center, where the Thunder are favored by 14 points. The over/under line for this game is 231.

Recent Form

The Pistons fell to 42-33 on the season after a 123-104 road loss to the Timberwolves on Sunday. Detroit entered the game as +7.5 point underdogs but failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game ended at 227, just over the pre-game line of 224.5.

Detroit started strong, leading 34-20 after the 1st quarter, but the Timberwolves took control from there. Minnesota outscored the Pistons 34-26 in the 2nd quarter and 38-23 in the 3rd. Heading into the 4th quarter down 92-83, the Pistons couldn’t mount a comeback, as the Timberwolves closed out the game by winning the final quarter 31-21.

The Thunder improved to 63-12 with a dominant 145-117 win over the Bulls on Monday. Playing at home, Oklahoma City was favored by 15.5 points and covered the spread. The game’s total points of 262.5 exceeded the O/U line of 240.5.

A 10-0 run early in the game helped the Thunder pull away, and they outscored the Bulls 45-22 in the 2nd quarter. They led 114-74 going into the 4th quarter, allowing the Bulls to win the final period 43-31.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed against the spread in recent matchups, the Pistons hold the edge at 3-2. However, the average scoring margin in these matchups has been tight, sitting at just 1 point per game. Detroit and Oklahoma City averaged a combined 221 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Analysis

In their loss to the Timberwolves, the Pistons shot just 35.8% from the field and 31.6% from three-point range, making 12 threes. Malik Beasley led the way with 27 points, hitting six threes at a 46.2% clip. Tim Hardaway Jr. added 20 points, connecting on three threes.

Beasley scored 12 points in the 1st quarter, while Hardaway added 9 in both the 1st and 3rd quarters. Ausar Thompson contributed 8 of his 14 points in the 4th quarter, and Dennis Schröder put up 7 of his 11 points in the 2nd period.

Defensively, the Pistons started strong, holding the Timberwolves to 20 points in the 1st quarter, but they struggled in the 2nd and 3rd, allowing 34 and 38 points, respectively. Overall, Detroit gave up 123 points on 47% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Pistons allowed Minnesota to hit 12 threes at a 38% clip. Detroit also sent the Timberwolves to the line 31 times, where they made 23 free throws. The Pistons recorded three steals and three blocks in the game.

The Thunder’s offense was firing on all cylinders in their 145-117 win over the Bulls, shooting 53.1% from the field and knocking down 23 threes at a 53.5% clip. Isaiah Joe led the way with 31 points, hitting eight threes at 57.1%, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 27 points and 12 assists, going 2-for-2 from deep.

Jalen Williams contributed 23 points, connecting on four threes at 57.1%. Joe scored 11 points in the 1st quarter and added 9 more in the 4th, while Gilgeous-Alexander put up 13 points in the 3rd. Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein each scored 8 points in the 3rd quarter as well.

Defensively, the Thunder were strong in the 1st and 2nd quarters, giving up just 18 and 22 points, respectively, but struggled in the 3rd and 4th, allowing 34 and 43 points. Despite this, they held the Bulls to 44% shooting overall.

From beyond the arc, the Thunder limited the Bulls to 31% shooting, with 16 threes made. They also sent the Bulls to the line 16 times, where they hit 13 free throws. Defensively, the Thunder recorded 11 steals and six blocks.

Betting Trends

• Although Detroit has a straight-up record of 3-2 in their last five road games, they have not held up as well vs. the spread going 2-3. The team averaged 116 points per game in these games.
• Through their last ten home contests, the Thunder offense has averaged 123 points per game while allowing an average of 112. Oklahoma City posted an overall record of 10-0 while going 8-2 ATS.
• Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the Pistons have gone 2-2-1 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 2-3.
• The Thunder have played well in their last three games as the betting favorite, going 3-0 straight up and 3-0 against the spread.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

I’ve had some success in the past taking the Pistons when they are facing off against some of the top teams in the NBA and are big dogs. However, this is a different story, as Detroit is banged up, and several players are out with suspensions. I’m steering clear of the spread and instead taking a look at this over/under line. Even though OKC should have no problem putting up a ton of points, I don’t think the Pistons have the firepower to carry this game over 231. I like the under in this matchup.