Thunder vs. Pelicans Odds, Analysis, Predictions 4/12/23

Oklahoma City Thunder (40-42 SU, 46-35-1 ATS) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (42-40 SU, 39-42-1 ATS)
When: Wednesday, April 12th, 9:30 PM (ET)
Where: Smoothie King Center, LA, New Orleans
TV: ESPN

Point Spread: OKC +5.5/NO -5.5
Total: 226
Money Line: Oklahoma City Thunder +178/-215

Notable Injuries

Thunder

• Kenrich Williams (Out) Wrist
• Aleksej Pokusevski (Out) Knee
• Chet Holmgren (Out) Foot

Pelicans

• Larry Nance Jr. (Questionable) Ankle
• Zion Williamson (Out) Hamstring
• Jose Alvarado (Out) Lower Leg
• EJ Liddell (Out) Knee

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Oklahoma City is 40-42 overall. When taking to the road, Oklahoma City has a mark of 16-25 and a win percentage of 39%. Currently, the team is 10th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 46-35-1 vs the spread. In their matchup against New Orleans, the Oklahoma City Thunder have won 2 straight games and will look to push that mark to 3 in a row.

In their preceding game, the Thunder overpowered the Grizzlies, earning a 115-100 win as 2 point favorites. Jared Butler led the way for the Thunder, putting up 25 points on 47.6% shooting. The Thunder not only secured the victory but also covered the spread.

Heading into the game, New Orleans is 42-40 overall. When playing at home, New Orleans has a mark of 27-14 and a win percentage of 66%. Currently, the team is 9th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 39-42-1 vs the spread. In New Orleans’ last 5 games, the Pelicans have a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 2-2-1 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 7-3 and 6-3-1 ATS.

In their last game, New Orleans was defeated by Timberwolves with a score of 113-108. Despite Brandon Ingram scoring 42 points, the team was unable to come out on top. Going into the game, the Pelicans were 2 point favorites.

The Historicals

In the most recent game between the two teams, the Pelicans picked up a 105-101 win over the Thunder. However, heading into the game, New Orleans was favored to win by 6.0 points, giving the Thunder an ATS victory. So far this season, the Pelicans have a record of 3-1 vs the Thunder. When looking at how these teams have performed against the spread in recent matchups, the Thunder hold the edge at 3-2. However, the average scoring margin in these matchups has been tight, sitting at just 2 points per game. The over-under record in these same games is 2-3, with the teams combining for an average of 218 points per game.

Analysis

This season, Oklahoma City is among the league leaders in scoring, averaging 117.5 points per game. So far, the Thunder are also one of the more up-tempo teams in the league, sitting at 101.4 possessions per game. When looking at the team’s 3-point shooting numbers, they profile as an average team in both percentage and attempts. For the season, the Thunder offense is ranked 14th in 3-point attempts per game while connecting at a rate of 35.6%. On defense, the Thunder are allowing an average of 111.83 points per game, placing them 15th in the league. So far, opposing teams are hitting 34.97% of their looks from deep vs. Oklahoma City.

Going into today’s game, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the leading scorer for the Oklahoma City team, with an average of 31.4 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 51.0%. The team’s second top scorer is Josh Giddey, who is averaging 16.6 points per game.

This year, the New Orleans offense is not only near the NBA average in points at 114.4 points per game, but they are also playing at a pace similar to the league average. So far, the Pelicans are ranked 15th in possessions per contest. New Orleans comes into the game ranked just 33rd in 3-point attempts per game. So far, they have connected on 36.4% of their shots from deep, which places them 24th in the NBA. On defense, the Pelicans are allowing an average of 110.28 points per game, placing them 13th in the league. So far, teams have shot 36.48% on their looks from outside vs New Orleans. This figure places them 26th in 3-point shooting defense.

Coming into today’s game, CJ McCollum is the leading scorer for New Orleans at 20.9 points per game. This season, McCollum has a field goal percentage of 43.7%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Trey Murphy III at 14.5 points per contest.

Betting Trends

• The Thunder are 17-6-3 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
• The Thunder are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games playing on 2 days rest.
• The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
• The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The public is hammering OKC at +5.5 and they’ve got it all wrong. Take a look at how well New Orleans has been playing at home as of late. They’ve gone 5-1 in their last six at home (and against some good teams) and won those games by pretty good margins. The bookies are going to clean up on this game. Don’t fall for this sucker bet! I’m betting the Pels -5.5!