Thunder vs. Nuggets: Expert ATS Pick & Game Day Predictions

Denver Nuggets (41-22 SU, 31-31 ATS) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (52-11 SU, 37-23 ATS)

When: Sunday, March 9th, 1:00 PM (ET)

Where: Paycom Center, OK, Oklahoma City

TV: ABC

Point Spread: Den +8/OKC -8

Total: 240

Money Line: Denver Nuggets +249/-303

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Probable) Ankle
• Nikola Jokić (Probable) Ankle
• Julian Strawther (Out) Knee
• DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles

Thunder

• Nikola Topić (Out) Knee
• Ajay Mitchell (Out) Toe

At 1:00 ET, the Thunder (-303) will host the Nuggets (+249) in a Western Northwest Division matchup. Oklahoma City is favored by 8 points, and the over/under line is set at 240.

Denver is currently 2nd in the West, and they are on a 2-game win streak. Meanwhile, the Thunder are 1st in the conference and have won 6 straight games. ABC will broadcast the game, and it will take place at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City.

Recent Form

Denver improved to 41-22 on the season with a 149-141 win over the Suns on Friday. The Nuggets were favored by 9 points at home but didn’t cover the spread. The game’s total of 290 points far exceeded the pregame over/under line of 242.5.

Denver took control early, leading 37-28 after the 1st quarter and extending their lead to 102-91 by the end of the 3rd. However, the Suns made a push in the 4th, outscoring the Nuggets 34-23, but Denver held on for the win.

The Thunder improved to 52-11 this season with a 107-89 win over the Trail Blazers on Friday. Playing at home, OKC entered the game as -1.5 point favorites and covered the spread with the win. The total points for the game ended at 196, well under the projected 228.

OKC went on a 12-0 run early, stretching the score from 9-8 to 20-9. After leading 63-45 at halftime, the Thunder allowed Portland to close the gap in the 3rd quarter, but they responded by holding the Blazers to just 16 points in the 4th while scoring 27 of their own.

The Historicals

In terms of betting, Oklahoma City has an ATS record of 3-2 in the previous five matchups vs Denver. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +9 points per game in favor of the Thunder. A combined average of 217 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Analysis

The Nuggets put up 149 points in their win over the Suns, shooting 58.8% from the field and knocking down 21 threes at a 52.5% clip. Nikola Jokić led the way with a 31-point, 22-assist, 21-rebound triple-double, while Aaron Gordon added 27 points, hitting seven threes at 70% efficiency.

Christian Braun contributed 25 points, making four threes at 80%, and was key in overtime with 9 points. Jokić added 5 points in the extra period, while Jamal Murray also chipped in 6 of his 19 points in OT.

Despite giving up 141 points, the Nuggets managed to secure the win over the Suns. Denver allowed 28 points in both the 1st and 2nd quarters, but their defense struggled more in the 3rd and 4th, giving up 35 and 34 points, respectively.

The Nuggets allowed Phoenix to shoot 56% from the field, including 42% from three-point range, where the Suns hit 16 threes. Denver also sent Phoenix to the line 29 times, with the Suns converting 23 free throws. The Nuggets recorded eight steals and three blocks in the game.

Aaron Wiggins led the Thunder with 30 points in their 107-89 win over the Trail Blazers, shooting 50% from the field. Alex Caruso added 17 points, hitting 75% of his shots, while Ousmane Dieng contributed 16 points, knocking down four threes at 66.7% efficiency.

Oklahoma City connected on 14 threes, shooting 36.8% from deep and 46.4% overall. Wiggins scored 10 points in the 2nd quarter, while Caruso put up 10 in the 4th, and Isaiah Joe added 11 of his 16 points in the 2nd period.

The Thunder’s defense was outstanding on Friday, holding the Trail Blazers to just 89 points. They gave up 24 points in the 1st quarter, 21 in the 2nd, 28 in the 3rd, and clamped down in the 4th, allowing only 16 points. Oklahoma City limited Portland to 34% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Thunder’s defense was even more impressive, as the Trail Blazers hit just eight threes on 18% shooting. Oklahoma City also recorded 12 steals and eight blocks in the game.

Betting Trends

• Across the Nuggets’ last ten road games, the team averaged 117 points per game while allowing 119. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 3-7 while going 5-5 straight-up.
• Oklahoma City has played well in their previous five home games, going 5-0 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 132 points per game while allowing 119. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
• As the betting underdog, the Nuggets have an ATS mark of just 4-6 in their last ten games. Denver posted a straight-up mark of 4-6 in these matchups.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Thunder have a straight-up record of 8-2. Their record vs the spread in these games was 5-5.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

It’s not too often you get a matchup between the 1 and 2 seeds in a conference and have the spread sitting at -8. Yet for today’s Denver vs OKC matchup, the Thunder are the heavy favorite. Oklahoma City has won 6 straight, but Denver has been playing well also. Jokic has been on fire as of late, and I expect him to have another big game, and keep the Nuggets within reach. I like Denver to cover.