Thunder vs. Bucks: Expert NBA Predictions & Potential Best Bet

Milwaukee Bucks (26-21 SU, 21-25 ATS) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (38-9 SU, 28-17 ATS)

When: Monday, February 3rd, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Paycom Center, OK, Oklahoma City

TV: FDSO

Point Spread: Mil +10/OKC -10

Total: 232

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks +367/-484

Notable Injuries

Bucks

• Bobby Portis (Out) Personal

Thunder

• Alex Caruso (Questionable) Ankle
• Chet Holmgren (Out) Hip
• Jalen Williams (Questionable) Wrist
• Cason Wallace (Questionable) Shoulder
• Nikola Topic (Out) Knee
• Ajay Mitchell (Out) Toe

At 8:00 ET, the Milwaukee Bucks will travel to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder in a non-conference matchup. The Thunder (-484) are favored by 10 over the Bucks (+367). The over/under line is set at 232 points.

Currently, the Thunder are 1st in the Western Conference with a record of 38-9. The Bucks are 5th in the Eastern Conference and have lost three straight games. The game will be played at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City and can be seen on FDSO.

Recent Form

The Bucks fell to 26-21 on the season after a 132-119 home loss to the Grizzlies on Sunday. Milwaukee, who were -4 point favorites, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game hit 251, just over the 248.5 O/U line.

Memphis took control with an 11-0 run early, but Milwaukee battled back, leading 99-93 going into the 4th quarter. However, the Bucks were outscored 39-20 in the final period, sealing the loss.

Oklahoma City improved to 38-9 on the season with a dominant 144-110 win over the Kings on Saturday. Playing at home, the Thunder were favored by 7.5 points and covered the spread with a 34-point victory. The total score of 254 points exceeded the over/under line of 237.5 by 16.5 points.

A key moment came when the Thunder went on a 12-0 run, stretching their lead from 58-45 to 70-45. They outscored the Kings 46-24 in the 2nd quarter and closed out the game by holding the Kings to 20 points in the 4th quarter while scoring 31 points of their own.

The Historicals

In terms of betting, Milwaukee has an ATS record of 4-1 in the previous five matchups vs Oklahoma City. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +11 points per game in favor of the Bucks. The over-under record in these same games is 3-2, with the teams combining for an average of 233 points per game.

Analysis

In their 132-119 loss to the Grizzlies, the Bucks hit 20 threes, shooting 44.4% from deep. Overall, they shot 48.4% from the field.

Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 30 points, 11 rebounds, and seven assists, scoring 11 points in the 3rd quarter. Khris Middleton added 20 points, with 11 coming in the 1st quarter.

The Bucks had a strong defensive effort in the 2nd quarter, holding the Grizzlies to 25 points, but they struggled in the 3rd and 4th quarters, giving up 37 and 39 points, respectively, in a 132-119 loss. Milwaukee allowed Memphis to shoot 48% from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Bucks limited the Grizzlies to 35% shooting, with Memphis hitting 14 threes. Milwaukee also sent the Grizzlies to the free-throw line 22 times, where they made 14. The Bucks recorded seven steals and five blocks in the game.

The Thunder’s offense was firing on all cylinders in their 144-110 win over the Kings, shooting 53.3% from the field and hitting 19 threes at a 41.3% clip. Aaron Wiggins led the way with 41 points and 14 rebounds, knocking down six threes, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 29 points and nine assists.

Luguentz Dort also hit six threes, finishing with 20 points on 58.3% shooting. Wiggins scored 14 points in the 4th quarter, while Gilgeous-Alexander had 13 in the 1st. Kenrich Williams contributed 18 points, and Isaiah Hartenstein added 16, with eight coming in the opening period.

Even with a shaky 3rd quarter, the Thunder’s defense held strong, allowing just 110 points in their win over the Kings. They tightened up in the 2nd and 4th quarters, giving up only 24 and 20 points, respectively. Oklahoma City limited Sacramento to 40% shooting from the field.

The Thunder were particularly effective at defending the three, holding the Kings to 25% from deep with just 11 made threes. Oklahoma City also controlled the boards, grabbing 50 defensive rebounds while allowing nine offensive boards. They added five steals and six blocks.

Betting Trends

• Although Milwaukee has a straight-up record of 1-4 in their last five road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 1-4. The team averaged 115 points per game in these games.
• Through their last three home contests, the Thunder offense has averaged 108 points per game while allowing an average of 110. Oklahoma City posted an overall record of 1-2 while going 0-3 ATS.
• The last ten games that Milwaukee was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 4-6 while going 2-8 straight up.
• Although the Thunder have a strong straight up record in their last three games as the betting favorite, they have not done as well vs the spread going 1-2.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Heading into this Bucks vs Thunder matchup, I’m locking in the Thunder at -10 while I can. The Bucks just played last night at home and lost to a Grizzlies team that didn’t have Ja Morant. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Milwaukee be careful with Giannis’ minutes in this one, and OKC is going to coast to an easy win. I’m taking the Thunder to cover.