Thunder vs. Bucks Betting Preview: Expert Spread Pick and Key Stats

Milwaukee Bucks (14-11 SU, 10-14 ATS) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (20-5 SU, 16-9 ATS)

When: Tuesday, December 17th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: T-Mobile Arena, NV, Las Vegas

TV: ABC

Point Spread: Mil +5/OKC -5

Total: 215.5

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks +171/-200

Notable Injuries

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Patella
• Khris Middleton (Probable) Illness
• Damian Lillard (Probable) Right Calf
• Liam Robbins (Questionable) Left Ankle

Thunder

• Chet Holmgren (Out) Hip
• Ousmane Dieng (Out) Right Ring Finger
• Jaylin Williams (Out) Hamstring
• Adam Flagler (Out) Hand
• Nikola Topic (Out) Knee
• Alex Ducas (Out) Lower Back

At 8:30 ET on ABC, the Thunder (-200) will host the Bucks (+171) in a non-conference matchup. Oklahoma City is favored by 5 points, and the over/under line is set at 215.5.

Both teams are on winning streaks, with the Thunder (20-5) having won five straight and the Bucks (14-11) having won three straight. Milwaukee is currently 5th in the Eastern Conference, while Oklahoma City is 1st in the Western Conference.

Recent Form

The Bucks improved to 14-11 on the season with a 110-102 win over the Hawks on Saturday. Milwaukee, favored by 3.5 points, covered the spread at home. The game’s total of 212 points fell well short of the 233-point over/under line.

Milwaukee took control with a 12-0 run, turning a 28-27 deficit into a 39-28 lead. After Atlanta battled back in the third quarter, the Bucks clamped down in the fourth, holding the Hawks to 19 points while scoring 28 to seal the win.

With a 111-96 victory over the Rockets on Saturday, the Thunder improved to 20-5 for the season. Playing at home, Oklahoma City entered the game as a -5.5 favorite and covered the spread. The total points for the game were 207, falling short of the 215-point O/U line.

The Thunder took control with an 11-0 run, extending the score from 51-48 to 59-51. They then outscored Houston 34-27 in the 3rd quarter and 36-27 in the 4th to seal the win.

The Historicals

Over the last five head-to-head meetings, the Bucks have averaged 122 points per game compared to 111 for Oklahoma City. This has led to an ATS record of 4-1 for Milwaukee. In these contests, they averaged a combined 233 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

In the Bucks’ win over the Hawks, Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 32 points, 14 rebounds, and nine assists, shooting 66.7% from the field. Damian Lillard added 25 points, hitting five threes at 35.7%, despite shooting just 38.1% overall. Brook Lopez contributed 16 points, making two threes at 40% and shooting 70% from the field.

Milwaukee made 14 threes, shooting 31.1% from beyond the arc and 45.3% overall. Giannis scored 10 points in the 4th quarter, while Lillard added 11 in the 3rd and 10 in the 2nd.

The Bucks’ defense came up big in the 4th quarter, allowing just 19 points to help secure the win. They also held the Hawks to 21 points in the 2nd quarter, despite giving up 34 in the 3rd. Overall, Milwaukee allowed 102 points on 42% shooting from the field.

Milwaukee limited Atlanta to 10 made threes, though the Hawks shot 41% from deep. The Bucks sent the Hawks to the line 34 times, with Atlanta converting 22 free throws. Milwaukee finished with 41 defensive rebounds, gave up seven offensive boards, and recorded eight steals and eight blocks.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder to a 111-96 win over the Rockets, finishing with 32 points, eight rebounds, and six assists despite shooting just 38.1% from the field. Isaiah Hartenstein was highly efficient, shooting 75% and adding 21 points and eight rebounds, while Jalen Williams contributed 20 points.

Oklahoma City hit 11 threes at a 36.7% clip, shooting 45% overall. Gilgeous-Alexander scored 12 points in the 3rd quarter, while Hartenstein added 10 in the 4th. Luguentz Dort also had a big 3rd quarter, scoring 11 of his 19 points.

The Thunder’s defense shined on Saturday, holding the Rockets to just 96 points. They were particularly strong in the 1st and 2nd quarters, giving up only 20 and 22 points, respectively. Oklahoma City limited Houston to 36% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Thunder were even more impressive, allowing just 11 threes on 23% shooting. They also sent the Rockets to the line 25 times, where they made 15 free throws. Defensively, the Thunder recorded 12 steals and four blocks.

Betting Trends

• The Bucks are 2-1 ATS in their three last road games and 2-1 straight-up.
• Across their last three home contests, Oklahoma City has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 121 points per game.
• Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Bucks have gone 2-1 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
• As the betting favorite, the Thunder have an ATS record of 5-0 in their last five games. In these matchups their straight up record was 5-0.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Two of the NBA’s smallest markets face off in Vegas tonight for the NBA Cup, and the Thunder are favored by -5. Giannis has been great for the Bucks, but Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the few other players in the league that can dominate a game similar to Giannis. Look for Antetokounmpo’s poor free-throw shooting to play a role in this one, as I like OKC to not only win but cover.