Thunder at Nuggets: Where’s the Smart Money Going in This NBA Matchup?

Oklahoma City Thunder (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS)

When: Wednesday, November 6th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver

TV: ALT

Point Spread: OKC -7/Den +7

Total: 222.5

Money Line: Oklahoma City Thunder -276/+229

Notable Injuries

Thunder

• Isaiah Hartenstein (Out) Hand
• Kenrich Williams (Out) Knee
• Jaylin Williams (Out) Hamstring
• Nikola Topic (Out) Knee

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Out) Calf
• Jamal Murray (Out) Concussion
• Vlatko Cancar (Questionable) Ankle
• DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles

At 9:00 ET, the Thunder (-276) will travel to Denver to take on the Nuggets (+229) in a Western Northwest division matchup. Oklahoma City is currently favored by 7 points, and the over/under line is set at 222.5.

This game will be played at Ball Arena, and it can be seen on ALT.

Recent Form

The Thunder improved to 7-0 on the season with a 102-86 win over the Magic on Monday. Playing at home, Oklahoma City entered the game as a -12.5-point favorite and covered the spread. The total points for the game were 188, well below the over/under line of 217.5.

A key moment in the game was a 13-0 run by the Thunder, which extended their lead from 34-26 to 47-26. They held the Magic to just 15 points in the 3rd quarter, going into the 4th with an 84-58 lead. Orlando outscored them 28-18 in the final quarter, but the Thunder’s early dominance secured the win.

The Nuggets improved to 4-3 on the season with a 121-119 win over the Raptors on Monday. Denver, playing at home, was favored by 11 points but didn’t cover the spread. The total score of 240 points went over the line of 231.

Denver trailed 93-88 going into the 4th quarter but outscored Toronto 33-26 in the final period to secure the win. The Nuggets were behind after each of the first three quarters, with the Raptors leading 37-34 after the 1st and 27-25 in the 2nd. Both teams scored 29 points in the 3rd quarter.

The Historicals

Spanning across the last five head-to-head matchups, the Thunder and Nuggets have been competitive, with an average margin of victory sitting at just 2 points per game. This has resulted in a 3-2 ATS record for Oklahoma City. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 0-5. Combined, they averaged 212 points in these games.

Analysis

Jalen Williams led the Thunder with 23 points in their win over the Magic, scoring 14 of those in the first quarter. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 21 points and nine assists, while Chet Holmgren contributed 14 points and nine rebounds.

Isaiah Joe scored 9 of his 13 points in the 3rd quarter, and the Thunder made 12 threes, shooting 38.7% from deep. Overall, they shot 45.9% from the field.

The Thunder put on a defensive clinic against the Magic, holding them to just 86 points on 35% shooting. Oklahoma City was especially strong in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, where they allowed only 17 and 15 points, respectively.

From beyond the arc, the Thunder limited the Magic to just five made threes on 14% shooting. Oklahoma City also recorded 12 steals and four blocks in the game.

Nikola Jokić led the Nuggets to a win over the Raptors, posting 28 points, 14 rebounds, and 13 assists. Russell Westbrook added 21 points, and Michael Porter Jr. contributed 19, hitting three threes despite shooting 30% from deep.

Denver shot 49.4% from the field but struggled from three, making just ten threes at a 32.3% rate. Jokić scored 11 points in the 3rd quarter, while Westbrook and Peyton Watson each added 6 points in the 4th.

Despite a rough start, the Nuggets tightened up defensively after giving up 37 points in the 1st quarter. They allowed 27 points in the 2nd, 29 in the 3rd, and just 26 in the 4th, holding the Raptors to 119 points overall. Denver limited Toronto’s three-point shooting, allowing just 13 threes on 33% shooting.

The Nuggets sent the Raptors to the line 18 times, where they made 12 free throws. Denver finished with 30 defensive rebounds but gave up 14 offensive boards. They also recorded nine steals and ten blocks in the game.

Betting Trends

• The Thunder are 3-0 ATS in their three last road games and 3-0 straight-up.
• Although Denver has a straight-up record of 2-1 in their last three home games, they have not held up as well vs. the spread going 1-2. The team averaged 129 points per game in these games.
• Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Nuggets have a straight-up record of 5-5. But, their mark vs the spread was just 7-3.
• The Thunder have played well in their last five games as the betting favorite, going 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Without both Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray, the Nuggets are +7 point underdogs at home vs an undefeated Thunder squad. The Nuggets picked up a win on Monday but didn’t look good doing it vs Toronto, and as good as Jokic is, it is a big ask for him to carry Denver to a win vs OKC. Look for the Thunder’s undefeated season to continue, as they not only win but cover the spread tonight.