Suns vs. Nuggets Spread Prediction: ATS Insights for Monday Night

Phoenix Suns (14-13 SU, 9-18 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (15-11 SU, 10-15 ATS)

When: Monday, December 23rd, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver

TV: ALT

Point Spread: Pho +5.5/Den -5.5

Total: 233

Money Line: Phoenix Suns +176/-211

Notable Injuries

Suns

• Devin Booker (Out) Groin
• Grayson Allen (Questionable) Head
• Bol Bol (Out) Left Knee
• Collin Gillespie (Out) Ankle

Nuggets

• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee
• DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles

At 10:00 ET, the Denver Nuggets (-211) will host the Phoenix Suns (+176) in a Western Conference matchup. The Nuggets are favored by 5.5 points and have a record of 15-11, which is good for 5th in the West. The Suns are 14-13 and have dropped two straight games.

This game will be played at Ball Arena in Denver and can be seen on ALT. The over/under line for the game is 233 points.

Recent Form

The Suns dropped to 14-13 on the season after a 133-125 home loss to the Pistons on Saturday. Phoenix, who were -5.5 point favorites, not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread. The total score of 258 points exceeded the O/U line of 224.5 by 33.5 points.

Detroit took control early with a 10-0 run, turning a 12-9 deficit into a 19-12 lead. Phoenix responded in the 2nd quarter, outscoring the Pistons 33-23, but Detroit regained momentum in the 3rd, winning the quarter 39-35. Phoenix entered the 4th quarter down 103-94 and edged the Pistons 31-30 in the final period, but it wasn’t enough to complete the comeback.

With a 132-129 win over the Pelicans on Sunday, the Nuggets improved to 15-11 this season. Denver was favored by 8.5 points but didn’t cover the spread. The total score of 261 points exceeded the O/U line of 231.5 by 29.5 points.

Denver rallied in the 4th quarter, outscoring New Orleans 38-26 after trailing 93-81. They held the Pelicans to 26 points in the final period while putting up 38 of their own to complete the comeback.

The Historicals

The ATS record across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings is 3-2 in favor of the Nuggets. In these matchups, Denver has averaged 113 points per game, while allowing 106. Over the course of these games, they averaged 219 points per game, leading a 1-3-1 over-under record.

Analysis

In the Suns’ 133-125 loss to the Pistons, Kevin Durant led the way with 43 points, including 13 in both the 3rd and 4th quarters. He also added 6 assists and 5 rebounds, hitting 4 threes at 44.4% efficiency. Bradley Beal contributed 26 points, with 12 coming in the 2nd quarter, and Tyus Jones chipped in 19 points, knocking down 3 threes at 100% from deep.

Phoenix shot 57.7% from the field and 48.3% from beyond the arc, connecting on 14 threes. Durant finished with a 53.8% field goal percentage, while Beal shot 55% and made 3 threes at 50% efficiency.

The Suns struggled defensively against the Pistons, giving up 133 points on 55% shooting. Phoenix had a tough 1st quarter, allowing 41 points, and gave up 39 more in the 3rd. They also allowed 19 three-pointers at a 48% clip.

Detroit went to the line 22 times, making 16 free throws. The Suns gave up 10 offensive rebounds while recording 9 steals and 1 block.

Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray each scored 27 points to lead the Nuggets to a 132-129 win over the Pelicans, with Jokic adding 13 rebounds and 10 assists. Russell Westbrook contributed 21 points, shooting 64.3% from the field.

Denver shot 50.5% overall, but struggled from three, hitting just 10 threes at a 30.3% rate. Jokic hit 2 threes at 66.7%, while Murray made 2, shooting 22.2% from deep.

Despite a rough 2nd quarter where they allowed 38 points, the Nuggets tightened up defensively in the 3rd and 4th quarters, giving up just 26 points in each to help secure the win. Overall, Denver allowed 129 points on 46% shooting from the Pelicans.

The Nuggets did a great job defending the three-point line, holding New Orleans to 30% shooting with just 12 made threes. Denver also sent the Pelicans to the line 23 times, where they hit 17 free throws. The Nuggets finished with 40 defensive rebounds, allowing 9 offensive boards, and added 10 steals and 8 blocks.

Betting Trends

• Although Phoenix has a straight up record of 1-2 in their last three road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 1-2. The team averaged 118 points per game in these games.
• In their last three games at home, the Nuggets have a straight up record of 2-1 while going 1-2 vs the spread. The team averaged 128 points per game in this stretch.
• In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Suns have a straight up record of 0-5 and an ATS mark of 1-4.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Nuggets have gone 2-8 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 4-6.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Suns can’t seem to get a break as far as injuries go, as tonight they will be without Devin Booker with a groin injury. Not only that, but they have lost to the Pacers and Suns in their last two games, putting them just 1 game above .500 for the season. Look for Denver to run away with this one. I’m taking the Nuggets to cover (-5.5).