Suns vs. Nuggets Game 1 Total Pick

Phoenix Suns (45-37 SU, 45-40-2 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (53-29 SU, 47-39-1 ATS)
When: Saturday, April 29th, 8:30 PM (ET)
Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver
TV: TNT

Point Spread: Pho +3/Den -3
Total: 226.5
Money Line: Phoenix Suns +124/-148

Notable Injuries

Suns

Nuggets

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Phoenix is 45-37 overall. When taking to the road, Phoenix has a mark of 17-24 and a win percentage of 41%. Currently, the team is 4th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 45-40-2 vs. the spread. In their matchup against Denver, the Phoenix Suns have won 4 straight games and will look to push that mark to 5 in a row.

In their last outing, the Suns emerged victorious against the Clippers, winning by a score of 136-130. Devin Booker led the team in scoring with 47 points. The Phoenix team was not able to cover the spread as 12-point favorites.

Heading into the game, Denver is 53-29 overall. When playing at home, Denver has a mark of 34-7 and a win percentage of 83%. Currently, the team is 1st in the Western Conference. So far, they are 47-39-1 vs. the spread. In Denver’s last 5 games, the Nuggets have a straight-up record of 4-1 while going 3-2 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 6-4 and 6-4 ATS.

In their last outing, the Nuggets emerged victorious against the Timberwolves, winning by a score of 112-109. Jamal Murray led the team in scoring with 35 points. The Denver team was not able to cover the spread as 9-point favorites.

The Historicals

In the most recent game between the two teams, the Suns picked up a 119-115 win over the Nuggets. However, heading into the game, Phoenix was favored to win by 13.0 points, giving the Nuggets and ATS victory. So far, the two teams have split their season series, with each team at 2-2. Spanning across the last 5 head-to-head matchups, the Suns and Nuggets have been competitive, with an average margin of victory sitting at just 2 points per game. This has resulted in a 3-2 ATS record for Denver. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 3-2. Combined, they averaged 234 points in these games.

Analysis

This year, Phoenix is the 30th-ranked scoring unit in the NBA at 113.6 points per game. Their strong production has come despite being one of the slower-paced teams in the NBA at just 98.0 possessions per game. Phoenix has struggled with their 3-point shot this season, as they are currently ranked just 2nd in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.4%. In addition, they are near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 32.6 attempts per contest. Defensively, the Suns have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 107.3 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 33.88%.

Devin Booker is averaging 27.8 points per game for the Suns on a field goal percentage of 49.4%. The team’s leading scorer is Kevin Durant, with an average of 29.1 points per game.

This season, the Nuggets’ offense is averaging 115.8 points per game, which is 19th in the NBA. In terms of pace, Denver has been playing at one of the slower tempo’s in the league, averaging just 97.9 possessions per game. Denver has struggled with their 3-point shot this season, as they are currently ranked just 5th in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.9%. In addition, they are near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 31.2 attempts per contest. On defense, the Nuggets are allowing an average of 110.41 points per game, placing them 14th in the league. So far, they have done a good job defending the 3-point arc, as teams are hitting just 34.42% of their looks from deep.

Nikola Jokic is the top scorer for the Nuggets, with an average of 24.5 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 63.2%. Jamal Murray is the team’s second-leading scorer, averaging 20.0 points per game.

Betting Trends

• Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
• Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
• Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
• Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Suns at +2.5 with the public all over the Nuggets implies that bookmakers think Phoenix is going to win this game. I’m impartial, so am betting the total. These teams really move the ball up and down the floor when they meet in Denver. It pains me to ride on the same side as the general betting public (squares), but I’m betting the OVER 226, because I think this game could easily hit 240 points. Good luck! Bet your NBA predictions for FREE this week by scoring a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500! Here’s how: Register for an account through this special link at Everygame Sportsbook (Oldest bookie on the web – Online since the 1990’s!). Deposit $100 to $500. Before placing your first bet, go to their “Special Offers” page. Enter bonus code PREDICTEM. Your balance will then be instantly credited with the bonus!