Suns vs. Lakers: Expert NBA Picks & ATS Predictions | Mar 16

Phoenix Suns (31-36 SU, 26-40 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (40-25 SU, 36-28 ATS)

When: Sunday, March 16th, 3:30 PM (ET)

Where: Crypto.com Arena, CA, Los Angeles

TV: ABC

Point Spread: Pho +3.5/LAL -3.5

Total: 230

Money Line: Phoenix Suns +135/-160

Notable Injuries

Suns

• Monté Morris (Questionable) Back
• Grayson Allen (Out) Foot
• Nick Richards (Probable) Ankle

Lakers

• LeBron James (Out) Groin
• Dorian Finney-Smith (Questionable) Ankle
• Maxi Kleber (Out) Foot
• Luka Dončić (Probable) Ankle
• Gabe Vincent (Questionable) Knee
• Jaxson Hayes (Probable) Knee
• Rui Hachimura (Out) Knee
• Dalton Knecht (Probable) Back

The Lakers are favored by 3.5 points in this Western Pacific Division matchup against the Suns. Los Angeles has lost four straight games and is currently 5th in the Western Conference. Phoenix is 11th in the West and has a record of 31-36.

This game will be played at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles and will tip-off at 3:30 ET. You can watch the game on ABC.

Recent Form

The Suns improved to 31-36 on the season with a 122-106 win over the Kings on Friday. Phoenix, who were -2 point favorites, covered the spread with the victory. The game’s total of 228 points fell just short of the 232.5-point over/under line.

Phoenix opened the game strong with a 13-0 run, extending their lead from 23-15 to 36-15. Although Sacramento fought back in the 2nd quarter, outscoring the Suns 35-26, Phoenix responded by taking the 3rd quarter 35-25 and held off the Kings in the final period, winning it 25-24.

The Lakers fell to 40-25 on the season after a 131-126 road loss to the Nuggets on Friday. Despite being +15 point underdogs, Los Angeles kept things closer than expected. The game’s total of 257 points went well over the 229.5-point line.

Los Angeles started strong, leading 40-32 after the 1st quarter, but Denver took control in the 2nd, outscoring the Lakers 39-27. The Lakers stayed competitive, narrowly losing the 3rd quarter 31-32 and entering the 4th down 102-99. Denver edged them out 29-27 in the final period.

The Historicals

Across the previous five meetings between the teams, the Suns have an average scoring margin of +10 points per game, leading to an ATS mark of 3-2. Over the course of these games, they averaged 230 points per game, leading a 1-4 over-under record.

Analysis

In their win over the Kings, the Suns connected on 24 threes, shooting 55.8% from deep and 51.9% overall. Devin Booker and Kevin Durant each scored 22 points, with Booker adding 13 assists.

Tyus Jones hit six threes without a miss, finishing with 20 points. Bradley Beal scored 9 of his 15 points in the 3rd quarter, while Ryan Dunn added 8 of his 16 points in the 4th.

The Suns gave up 35 points in the 2nd quarter but tightened up defensively in the 3rd and 4th, allowing just 25 and 24 points, respectively, to secure the win. They held the Kings to 106 points despite Sacramento shooting 49% from the field.

Phoenix excelled in guarding the perimeter, limiting the Kings to 8 made threes on 25% shooting. The Suns also recorded 12 steals and three blocks in the game.

Austin Reaves led the Lakers with 37 points and 13 assists in their 131-126 loss to the Nuggets, shooting 50% from the field and hitting four threes at a 40% clip. Dalton Knecht added 32 points, knocking down five threes at 38.5%, with 11 points coming in the 4th quarter.

The Lakers made 15 threes, shooting 37.5% from beyond the arc, and finished with an overall field goal percentage of 46.7%. Shake Milton contributed 16 points, hitting 7 of his shots at a 63.6% rate.

The Lakers struggled defensively, giving up 131 points to the Nuggets, including 39 in the 2nd quarter. Denver shot 51% from the field, with the Lakers allowing 31 points in the 3rd and 29 in the 4th.

From beyond the arc, the Nuggets hit 13 threes at a 41% clip. The Lakers also sent Denver to the line 38 times, where they made 30 free throws. Defensively, the Lakers recorded 10 steals and two blocks.

Betting Trends

• Across their last three road contests, Phoenix has a 2-1 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 1-2, while averaging 115 points per game.
• When looking at their past three home matchups, Los Angeles has an ATS record of 1-2 while averaging 113 per game. The team went 0-3 overall in these games.
• Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the Suns have gone 3-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-4.
• The last ten games that Los Angeles was favored, they had an ATS mark of 6-4 while going 7-3 straight up.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

After taking a rest day on Friday, the Lakers are looking to have Luka back in the lineup vs the Suns today. Even though they lost on Friday vs the Nuggets, it was encouraging to see Dalton Knecht and Austin Reaves show they have the ability to carry the scoring load. But even with Doncic, I see the Suns covering this line, as they should have a big game offensively vs a struggling Lakers defense.