Suns vs. Heat: Point Spread Betting Preview and Analysis

Phoenix Suns (12-9 SU, 8-13 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (10-10 SU, 9-11 ATS)

When: Saturday, December 7th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Kaseya Center, FL, Miami

TV: AZFamily

Point Spread: Pho +6/Mia -6

Total: 219.5

Money Line: Phoenix Suns +183/-218

Notable Injuries

Suns

• Jusuf Nurkic (Out) Quadriceps
• Kevin Durant (Out) Ankle
• Ryan Dunn (Questionable) Ankle

Heat

• Jimmy Butler (Probable) Knee
• Pelle Larsson (Questionable) Ankle

At 8:00 ET, the Miami Heat (-218) will host the Phoenix Suns (+183) in a non-conference matchup. The Heat are favored by six points, and the over/under line is set at 219.5.

Recent Form

The Suns dropped to 12-9 on the season after a 126-124 loss to the Pelicans on Thursday. Phoenix, who entered the game as 1.5-point road favorites, failed to cover the spread. The total score of 250 points exceeded the over/under line of 223.5 by 26.5 points.

Phoenix went on an 11-0 run, turning a 49-44 deficit into a 55-49 lead. They outscored New Orleans 32-20 in the 2nd quarter but were outscored 45-28 in the 3rd. Despite entering the 4th quarter down 99-93, the Suns won the final period 31-27 but couldn’t complete the comeback.

Miami moved to 10-10 on the season with a dominant 134-93 win over the Lakers on Wednesday. The Heat, who were favored by 3.5 points, easily covered the spread in the 41-point blowout. The total points for the game were 227, surpassing the O/U line of 217.5.

Miami broke the game open early with a 14-0 run after the score was tied at 6-6. They outscored the Lakers 34-26 in the 1st quarter and 35-26 in the 2nd. By the end of the 3rd quarter, the Heat led 105-72, and they closed out the game by winning the 4th quarter 29-21.

The Historicals

Across the previous five meetings between the teams, the Suns have an average scoring margin of +4 points per game, leading to an ATS mark of 3-2. Over the course of these games, they averaged 216 points per game, leading a 2-3 over-under record.

Analysis

Devin Booker led the Suns with 28 points in their 126-124 loss to the Pelicans, despite shooting just 30% from the field. He hit three threes at 30% efficiency. Bradley Beal added 24 points, shooting 55.6% overall, though he struggled from deep, making only two threes at 28.6%.

Royce O’Neale contributed 19 points, hitting five threes at 62.5% efficiency. The Suns made 17 threes as a team, shooting 37.8% from beyond the arc, and finished with an overall field goal percentage of 50.6%.

Defensively, the Suns struggled in the 3rd quarter, giving up 45 points, which contributed to their 126-124 loss to the Pelicans. They did manage to tighten up in the 2nd quarter, allowing just 20 points. Overall, Phoenix allowed New Orleans to shoot 49% from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Suns allowed 14 threes on 38% shooting. The Pelicans also went to the free-throw line 25 times, making 18. Phoenix gave up 12 offensive rebounds but recorded ten steals and three blocks.

In their 134-93 win over the Lakers, the Heat shot 57.8% from the field and made 24 threes at a 51.1% clip. Tyler Herro led the way with 31 points, hitting nine threes and scoring 21 points in the 3rd quarter.

Jimmy Butler added 17 points and nine rebounds, while Terry Rozier contributed 16 points. Bam Adebayo and Haywood Highsmith each scored 14, with Adebayo putting up 7 points in both the 1st and 2nd quarters.

The Heat put on a defensive clinic against the Lakers, holding them to just 93 points. Miami gave up 26 points in both the 1st and 2nd quarters but tightened up in the 3rd, allowing only 20 points, and finished strong in the 4th by giving up 21 points.

Miami’s defense limited the Lakers to 42% shooting from the field and just 22% from beyond the arc, where they made only five threes. The Lakers went 14/19 from the free-throw line. The Heat also recorded 11 steals and five blocks.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, Phoenix has an ATS record of 1-2 while averaging 108 per game. The team went 0-3 overall in these games.
• Across the Heat’s last three home games, the team averaged 101 points per game while allowing 107. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 0-3 while going 1-2 straight-up.
• In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Suns have a straight-up record of 0-3 and an ATS mark of 1-2.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Heat have a strong straight up record of 2-1. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Not having Kevin Durant is definitely a huge blow to the Suns’ chances in this one, but I do think that Bradley Beal and Devin Booker will help Phoenix hang around. I do see Miami winning this one straight-up, but this is going to be a tight one. I’m taking the Suns to cover at +6.